Slagging

Fig 1. STI Daily Chart

I have been slagging for the past few weeks. Even for today I have to drag my feet to my computer. I am not sure why, but part of it has to do with my schedule for business trip to Sydney, or it may be because my wife is now at an unstable condition, she is pregnant and it is almost time for our baby to pop out.

My past experience tells me thatit is unwise to leave any position open when I am oversea. I have very limited power in controlling my stocks if I do so. Further more , there is a high tendency that the market goes against me whenever I am not in Singapore. So I have been quite empty handed during the last few weeks.

I have also noticed that my recent predictions has been highly inaccurate. Could this be one of the flause that my system has? There were time when I found myself more accurate than now. Could my system be ineffective in a congestion period like now? One thing is obvious,I need to reflect on what I have been doing.

So what am I seeing now? Leaving aside the indicators and the moving averages, the STI is still in a B wave congestion, and it should now be doing the C of B. However, the fibonacci calculation does not support the high and low values that it presents from the chart. Looking at the chart, the up wave started from 14th June 2006 till 6th July 2006 does resemble a ABC wave, B will definitely be ABC. We should then expect an ABC C wave for the major B wave, which according to Fibonacci should be 2,517

On the chart itself, there is a resistance from the trend line, it is presently resisting at 2,472. I feel that it will be difficult for STI to break through this resistance as it was quite strong when STI last revisited. Further more, the indicators are now reaching the top, so it is possible that this round stops here for the time being, if it can break through 2,451 that is.

Time of uncertainty

I was quite frustrated with my internet access a few says back as I was not able to log on to my broad band. I was at one point even wondering if there has been a bill payment issue. So it turned out my other phone extension was not fully on hook, so it created a problem during log in. I have only managed to solve this problem yesterday. I was in fact quite eager to look at the chart as it went against my previous prediction, not that it costs me any money.

Fig 1 STI Weekly chart

On looking at the weekly chart, I find that if this is a B wave, it is kind of small and narrow as compared to A wave. Through the week, STI tried to move upward only to be blocked by the resistance @ 2,398. This has appeared on my previous message on a few account. Seems to me this is a level to be recon with.

The indicators is also in uncertainty level, Stochasitc is on an up trend while RSI on a reversal down. MACD is also in an indeterminant level. it would be difficult to tell whether it is an up or down trend for the time being basing on indicator.

Looking on a candle stick on the other hand, it does produce a thrusting pattern, indicating a continuation downward. It still needs a confirmation, so the coming week will be the determinant for direction.

Fig2 STI Daily Chart

The B wave looks much bigger than what I have seen in weekly chart, probably due to more details. If I consider the previous upward movement of STI as the A of B wave, this present move would lead to the completion of B of B wave, and we shall see the C of C wave before plunging to C wave. The upward movement during the last few days does seem to support the throry.

Fromw both weekly and daily reading, STI chart tells me of south migration for the coming week. In such case, the support level would be 2,260-2,280. I would consider this position to break down when STI penetrate up ward breaking 2,451.

Medtec...waiting for pandemic?

Fig 1. Medtec Weekly Chart

A friend of mine asked me to look at this stock. Since I am studying its general direction, I would check out its weekly chart.

I was not particularly interested in it because it has been very faithfully following the down trend. Neither has the indicator been showing clear sign of buy.

The only thing that might be attracting me now is that this stock seems to bottoming. In recent days it reached the support @0.08. Although little is seen at the indicators, Stochastic does shows some divergence to the price movement. Both moving averages ( 21 and 89 weeks ) are pressing down the stock. So if the stock need a break through, not only it needs to go through both moving averages, it also need to break its trendline, which is now set at 0.111.

Meanwhile, I find it at a risky level of 0.08, which happens to be the support for the low of the past wave. If it breaks downward from 0.08, I feel that it would be time to leave this stock.

Wave C?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I was quite positive with STI after seeing the triangle formation. I was expecting that it should at least be reaching somewhere between 2,480-2,500. Unfortunately the subsequent formation did not manage to perform as I have expected. Top trader was less optimistic than me and estimated a lower target at aro 2,450. It seems like he is more accurate this time round.

The present formation actually looks interesting. If the initial drop has been an A wave, the rebound is B. With standard calculation, B suppose to be 0.618 of A @2,517, with ratio of 0.4589. Seems like not all stops follows Fibonacci number. However, it is useful as a guideline. If we consider that B wave is completed, then we are now seeing C wave. Using Fibonacci guideline again, the target should now be 2,217.

Both indicators that I am using, RSI and Stochastic are at the bottom. However, it does not mean that reversal be in sight. There are many times when the indicators at the bottom and stay down. This is especially true when a chart is on down trend. So there is a high chance that the indicators stays down, leading the STI to move south.

With the STI moving south, the next support that I see is 2,270 while channel support @ 2,295. Resistance is now 2,355.

The Narcisistic Singer

The Narcisistic Singer

Watched her singing on Mr Brown's web-site and got interested in knowing her a little more. So I searched through Youtube on her video and came across this. I find it quite entertaining. I am testing out to see if I can paste the video onto my blog.



Fig 1. STI Daily Chart

I have been a little busy lately, my wife is now close to 8 months pregnant so need to do more work ( gosh... our love nest is in a mess ). I have chosen to up-date the STI once every two days. It seems to me that slowing down does help a little more in my reading.

After a gap of one day, I see some new development in STI. It has now created a reverse hammer when at bottom indicates a reversal up trend. However, confirmation is needed to be assured that this is true.

So far RSI and Stochastic are both faithfully guiding STI downward. Both the indicators are at the bottom but have not yet indicate a reversal. So would tomorrow be the cause? In recent past, the level 2,398 has been a pit stop for STI, so it is no wonder that it stop near by the value @ 2,396. I am looking forward for STI to rebound at this area. Already, the volume that took much difficulties to re-appear seems to disappeared again ( on a down trend ) so the up trend is not yet over.

Anyway, we shall see tomorrow.

Trapped between high and low

Fig 1. STI Daily Chart

I am testing on up-dating my blog on alternate days, it seems tome that my readings are more accurate in such frequency. Some how, it let me take a step back to see a better picture. While this is so, I figure may be I should also publish some interesting stocks I read.

Seems like now STI is in a difficult position, on the low side, it is supported by the 13 (green dotted) and 21 ( green ) days EMA, on the high side, it is resisted by 55 (Grey) and 89 (white) days EMA. I wonder if I can call this an impasse?

So far indicators continue to guide the STI southward. Both RSI and Stochasitc have diverge from STI as mentioned in my past record. Another interesting observation is that STI is now resisted by the trend line (blue line) that previously supported the chart. So South seems very interesting for STI. However, it may be supported by 2,387 this time round.

Weakness, weakness, weakness....

Fig 1. STI Daily Chart


Fig 2. STI Weekly Chart

I was looking at the STI charts, both weekly and daily.

The weekly is a little confusing to me, both RSI and Stochastic are moving up, indicating that the STI is gathering momentum upward. At the same time, it formed a hangman which tells people it is going down. From weekly point of view, the direction is now unclear and need the next week to confirm.

The daily chart is a little more scary. STI and Stochastic has formed a divergence with STI. It is a foretale sign that the chart is going to head south. Further more, if failed to break 2,451 and now is pressed by the 21 days EMA @2,449. With the daily chart, I am seeing south for STI. Combining with the weekly chart, the coming week should be red.

At present the support level is 2,398, 2,355.Resistance @ 2,451,

Sad sad day

I am feeling quite sad today, while filling with anger yesterday. Mainly because Mr Brown's article landed into trouble with MICA. The article concern is "Singapore is fed, up with progress" which was published in Today. I read through the article, personally I feel that there is a little taste of politics, but hidden behind the article, he is angry with all the price hikes. He feedback that his life got more difficult when making ends meet as a result.

My anger came about when I read a response from Ms Bhavani from Ministry of Information, Communication and Arts. In disguise of rebuttal of his feedback, she made much attempt to discredit Mr Brown, as a result performing character assasination. The letter gives me a feeling of totally apathical to others feeling, with a message that tells us not to feedback any hardship unless we give them solution at the same time. So what is the purpose of hiring these people when they instead ask us to solve our own problem, which I see is a national issue.

Then came the suspension of Mr Brown's column on Friday. I don't really blame the Newspaper as they need to do repair work to "satisfy" the authority. It sadden me to see that while Singapore is growing, the Garment become a factor that prevents it from jumping into adult. It is really a sad, sad day not only for me, but for Singapore.

Anyway, anyone who is here may not be interested in what I have said earlier, but more on what I see from the chart. Anyway, I thank you for your patience in reading my feel on the issue. So far I believe that I am about 60-70% accurate in reading the chart. I admit that I still need improvements in my reading.

Picking up from Tuesday's reading. It seems like STI is trying to cover the gap and is stopped by the 21 days EMA @ 2,401.There are also the famous support line of 2,398 and a 21 days EMA @ 2,396. I would say that it would have completed its low for the time being. On the high side, it is resisted by 2,451 but the good thing is that it is now support by a 89 days EMA @ 2,437. In lay man term, it seems that today STI is rather firm with only trouble of breaking 2,451.

With both RSI and Stochastic attempting their second peak, I am quite sure that it is going to be broken upward. My target for 2,482 should still be intact, 2,500 might be a little far fetch, but let us monitor further. Now I feel that there should not be much worry on its general direction, simply because on its weekly chart, both Stochastic and RSI is coming out from the bottom and moving upward. So It is still quite safe to say that 2,500 is possible.

Of course there are always two side of the story. What if it fail, when would I think would be a good level for me to gauge that my reading is wrong? I will take 2,372 as a que as it was the past resistance.

Refer to yesterday's reading

Been a little slag in reading the charts lately, probably due to the beginning of a new wave. Feeling that the move may not be very spectacular, I guess I will jus tsit back and wait for the next wave down.

Meanwhile, little change on STI so the reading from yesterday still stand. Two things that make me feel that it is still going up. First of all the target of the ascending triangle (2,483) has still not yet been reached. Secondly, gap up with measurement of 2,500. So I am still betting that its up for STI in the medium term.

While we should see minor ups and downs in the short term, the general trend for the moment is still up, at least until 2,500. Of course a stop loss is needed to reverse my thoughts. I am taking the previous low as a reference for reveesal signal.

What wave is STI at?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart



Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart

I saw at CNA forum today on a discussion on STI. Jest101 argued that we are not yet completing the A wave while some others argued that we have completed the wave and is in B wave.

Looking at Fig 2, I feel that we are in wave 4 or some sort. Now the calculation of wave 4 is normally 0.382 to 0.5 or 0.618 of wave 3. So with the size of wave 3, wave 4 should target between 1,935 to 2,107. If this is so, assuming a complex 4th wave ( wave 2 seems relatively simple ) we may be @ a wave of a abcde wave count. Then the measurement would be 0.382 of wave 3, which should be 2,107 still.

However, it is still early to tell how this guy is going to move yet ( at least for me ). Interesting thing is that it moved very fast to try and close the deal with the triangle but with still a little more to go. I was quite surprise that it gapped up.

What I am see in the immediate phase is that STI's indicators are both peaking, it may still move up but I suspect side trending for short term. With the gap created, it may want to cover before moving on. If we use the gap measurement, there is a tendency that STI will reach 2,500 in this run.

The resistance for STI is now @ 2,451 with 55 EMA supporting @2,426 and 89 EMA @ 2,437.