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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

9/26/2006

On reaching the apex


Fig 1. STI Daily Chart

It has been some time since my last entry, partially due to fatherhood. Since the Moon Cake festival is arround the corner, I have decided to make a lantern for my little girl, Olivia. I never thought how much work is needed to just get the wires into the right shape.

Anyway, when I looked at the STI today, little has changed, it is still reluctant to break either upward or downward. I have highlighted the envelop of the wedge for better visual. The STI has bounced off the envelop resistance and retreated since.

While today started off well, it again retreated and have lost all its gain by the end of the day, and this somehow indicates weakness in the chart. Further more, the performance base on the MACD continues to be weaker as STI climb. Since MACD is a laggard indicator, I would use it to determine the longer term implication. In this case it does not look good.

The volume of transaction has increased during recent days. It is indication of a break out coming soon. So far, the volume of downs are higher than the ups.

With the few indicators available to me, I am still placing my bet on the down trend. The only concern I have with my prediction is that the chart is reaching the apex. Standard theory for wedge is that it will break at 2/3 area of the formation. This has so far been over due. It will be an interesting adventure ahead.

9/20/2006

Urgh!!!! STI make up your mind!!



I have thought for some time what title to put for today's article. It has to be something that speaks my mind. Fially, I feel that this is what I feel.

STI failed to break the wedge envelop at 2,556. It shows some weakness in its attempt to move higher. As I zoom out to view a larger picture, I also notice that MACD continue to weaken throughout the wedge.

So where is it going then? There is still a possibility of uptrend due to the weekly "double bottom". However, there is a higher possibility of down trend due to (i) wedge formation; (ii) weakening of volume; (iii) MACD.

I have actually put on my own record book with direction "indeterminant", my bet however, is still downward. STI resistance @ 2,556 while support @ 2,585. At the same time, I think it is high time for me to improve on my intuition.

9/18/2006

Wedge breaking down

I work on my charting at night, mainly because I work in the day and only nights belong to me. One thing bad about working at night is the temptation of sleep. Sleepiness tends to reduce the accuracy of my read. I recall last Friday when I attempted to read my chart by 12:00AM. I found myself not able to make out what the chart was telling me. Well one reason was that the chart was in-determined in either direction, while I have committed to figure out a direction no matter what. Anyway, it was off to bed for me.

I also write my blogs at night. This is done right after my analysis. So the later I finish, the slower I become in typing out the words. Another disadvantage in writing at such hour I find is the network traffic. Probably it also has something to do with my own modem. It seems to cut itself off from time to time. This makes loading onto Blogger.com harder. I was thinking of writing my blog last night, but somehow, I just could not get into my edit page.May be I would just need to wait till after 12:00AM.

I was looking at the chart last evening when read STI. On the daily basis, it looked very much like a wedge with target direction downward to the point I have stated in my previous blog. As I changed the time frame to weekly basis, I noticed something different. No longer it resemble a wedge, but more of a double bottom with target heading for 2,681. The RSI on weekly chart indicates continuation to the north. If the higher time frame dictates the lower time frame, then we may not see the wedge breakout but the double bottom to push STI up.



Fig 1. STI Weekly Chart



Fig. 2 STI Daily Chart

The STI at the moment is on the edge of the upper trend line of the wedge. There is still possibility that it will move south since the double bottom is not very obvious. Therefore, the point 2,554 is very important. So we shall see tomorrow.



Fig 3. Wing Tai Daily Chart



Fig 4. Wheelock Daily Chart

While going through the charts, I find particular interest in properties. While reading my focus stocks, I find that both Wing Tai and Wheelock are doing well, they are at the bottom of the wave and turning. The RSI indicators for both stocks are supporting the move so far.

Wing Tai is presently at 1.84, the upward move attracted volume with trade today. Its 3 to support level at 1.77 while target is between 1.93 to 2.03. Wheelock rests at 1.77, supported at 1.708 and targets at 1.926 due to a double bottom formation. I feel that Wheelock may be a safer by since its formation is clear.

9/12/2006

Indecision in STI



Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

After my last entry, STI seems to be retreating from its up ward move. It has since continued on its down trend since 7th of September. However, I may see some hessitance in its move as it is reaching a 21-day moving average, I suspect it will be at least temperarily supported at 2,480 with minor rebound before going further down.

RSI and Stochasitc for the chart is also moving south, supporting the down trend. It will be interesting to see STI at 2,474 tomorrow as this will be the test point for the wedge. Will it break this level, thereby initiating the wedge break out to 2,313?

Other than the few levels mentioned, the resistance for STI is 2,519 which is its original up trend trend line.



Fig 2. Fuyu Daily chart

While reading the charts, I also come across Fuyu. I have read it a few times before but only today that I find this chart interesting. Simple reason is that its indicators are all having divergence upwards while it hovers at this low point. I feel that there is a chance that it is moving up, base on indications from both daily and weekly indicators. Levels to observe are 0.366 which is its resistance from 89-day moving average, support at 0.305. Its next level of resistance after 0.366 would be 0.425.

9/07/2006

Wedge formation?


Fig. 1 STI Daily Chart

Finally, after my trip to Sydney, my service provider is up again and I am quite happy with the download. So I get to see an update on the chart again.

There is been quite a few development since my last update. First the chart momentarily penetrated the trend resistance where I obtained my resistance of 2,513. It went as high as 2,534 yesterday only to retreat back below the trend line at 2,505 today. However, does this mean that my wave count has been wrong?

While this is a possibility, I feel that STI is not yet out in the clear yet. It may be a good news in the breaking of the trendline. The STI is also forming an upward wedge(between 2 green lines which form its envelope), giving indication of it coming down with possible target of 2,313.

The length of time at which both RSI and stochastic stay on the top also call to question, they are in fact turning downwards. So there is a higher chance of South migration. For the time being, I would still steer clear of Singapore market until I see a better sign given to me. At present, the support @ 2,476, resistance 2,519.

9/04/2006

Server Down

I was quite frustrated on Sunday when I tried to download the stock data. It seems like the server at Keyquotes is still down. This is evidence from its official website. I am not sure what happen, may be they have not paid the bill. Anyway, I will be flying off to Sydney Australia for the AGE2006 ( Australian Gaming Expo 2006 ) during the next few days. Even reading the chart might not help much since 3 days gap would be high in uncertainty for short term. As for long term direction, my position still stand, objective 2,245, stop loss 2,513.