Malaysia Ringgit sneaked out of my radar...

Malaysia Ringgit has always been there in my Forex Layout. Somehow, I do not take much note of it. Probably because I am quite involved in news about Malaysia, I do not see Malaysia to have a future under the BN umbrella. Knowing my country will for over 40 years, I know well that they have very little determination to push anything remotely beneficial to the country through.

So being too fundamental about Malaysia actually caused me to ignore signs that MR is rising? I was looking at its rise but I was in self denial that this could actually happen?


Fig 1 Malaysian Ringgit Weekly Chart

So as I look at the chart now, it has gone quite a great length. But then this also means its indicators Stochastic and RSI is toppish at the moment (especially Stochastic). I gather that this currency should be doing some correction for the next few weeks starting next week, afterall, it just broke out on the descending side of the Gann Grid. Nevertheless, a gap also have a measurement like a flag, if it is only half way there. So the eventual objective should likely be 43.7.

DJIA going to break...

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I was looking at the daily chart of DJIA. This is just a gut feel plus very weak showing on Stochastic and RSI. DJIA is coming down tonight.The envelop support/resistance level tonight is at 10,896. It will be very difficult for DJIA to reach that level. The 21 days support level is 10,696.

STI and hahahahahahaha......

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I looked at the STI chart today and I only have one word: Deliberation! Deliberation!

Okay, this is a word used in candlestick applies on cases where it is a potential 3 white soldiers but failed on the third bar. So should it be reversal???!!!

The book says: Need confirmation.

So let's pray: Its coming down tomorrow........

Now EUD looks tasty

My last entry on EUD versus SGD in Fevuary was quite negative. Eventhough the indicators are at the bottom, for some reason, I still hessitated. It turned out I was right then. So can I consider this intuition?


Fig 1 EUD Versus SGD Weekly Chart

Looking at the chart again, this time, EUD looks more tasty to me. The indicators are all turning up with divergence to the currency. Better yet, it has a 5 wave formation. The only thing I find concerning is that the 5th wave is a little short.

However, with such a 5 wave downward, I can safely note that the next wave would be a zig zag B with retracement of probably 61.8%?

Some concern over USD versus SGD

My previous entries has been quite bullish on USD compared to SGD. However, I have my doubts recently.


Fig 1 USD Vs SGD Weekly Chart

While the most recent count of the chart indicated a completion of A wave and should be in progress of B. The shape raises a little concern. The end of A has penetrated 14,119 briefly before it retreated. This creates a possibility of a head and shoulder which to some extend is possible for a continuation pattern. The result might end with USD heading lower against SGD. the estimated target of the "potential head and shoulder" is 13,587. This seems to coincide with 13,417 objective of a swing move predicted earlier.

The chart is presently restricted by its moving average (21 weeks) at 14,043 while supported at previous low of 13,782 and the trend support of 13,942. I would see these 2 as vital points for USD to reverse up, breaking them will definitely means target of 13,417 to 13,587.

On the plus side, Stochastic is bottoming with strong suggestion to move up, well that is the only thing I see as a plus. RSI is showing reversal downward. The good part of this is it is also bottoming and has limited space to move.

If USD is to move higher, there is a resistance from the 89 weeks moving average at 14,348. This coincide with the (B,a) support turn resistance at 14,329.

STI Status

Do you ever have this experience where there is this blank in your mind when you close your eyes momentarily. I have this experience this morning when I woke up. Gosh! I really don't know why I was so deprived of sleep last night. When I have my eyes closed during my morning practise, it was like my mind just shut off. Time just flew by and it was 10-20 seconds later when my eyes re-opened, yet I felt like I just blinked.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Looking at the STI daily chart, I am in a little bit of delima. On one hand, my wave count estimation should see the completion of "c" by now and that this is a new wave down.On the other, the index is rising, with support from Stochastic and RSI.If such is the case, STI would have done 4th wave and is now doing 5th.

The wierdest thing is that it seems to be on a verge of creating the 3 white soldiers to indicate an up trend. If we are having the same result tomorrow. I would need to change my position to bullish (short term). However, I am still looking at 2,947 as the resistance (the final hold).

The DJIA looking from weekly time frame

I have been a little below the wind the last few days. the bad cough is simply not going away even after 2 rounds with the doctors. It seems like cough is getting more dirfficult to cure, I wonder if it is due to the strengthening of th cough and flu virus.

The last I mentioned DJIA, I noted that I was confident of its descent. I still am.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

As I looked at the weekly chart, its indicators are not as sensitive to the DJIA movement. However, the Stochastic is already at turning point while RSI slowing its escalation. I don't exactly know if the coming week is ascending or descending,I do not expect anything spectacular, what would you expect at U-turn anyway?

However, I do notice that the next resistance of DJIA is 11,753, I consider this level might not be so reachable base on its present setting. The closest resistance earlier at 10,827 is now its support. I suspect however, this might be broken back by next week.

If this guy is going up, against all odds. Streched out another measurement using Fibonacci retracement reference from starting point of A to end of C on the previous wave. The 61.8% retracement resistance is located at 11,271. this should be where DJIA would stop.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

If you look at DJIA Daily Chart, you will find something slightly different.Stochastic has already turned and coming down. RSI is also coming down, with one difference, it is diverging.

Now the most crucial part of DJIA is the Wedge envelop at 10,847.

DJIA Follow Up

Recently I have really having little mood in looking at charts, primarily because all of them are reversing and still procastinating on moving down. However, DJIA interests me because it has broken its previous high of 10,719. As we speak, it is hovering around 10,937.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I have made some adjustment to the wedge envelop so that it covers the most recent spike. As the data is good till yesterday, my projection of the resistance would base on the wedge envelop resistance. Tonight's resistance is 10,939. Breaking this resistance could mean a wedge break down?

As for the wave count. Does this mean the previous count was wrong. Probably. The other explanation however is that this is the B of the A wave. This could be the B wave did a more than 100% retracement. It happens and is a valid scenario.

To some extend, I am quite confident that DJIA is coming down, judging from its indicators which are both at the top and turning. This is even more obvious when RSI is on divergence.

Okay, I say it is coming down, if not tonight, it should be tomorrow.

Genting below SGD0.90?

Just last week I did a forecast on Genting and I noted that it is a correction because it is working on the "B" wave. With a BIG "A" wave, "B" cannot be too small and it really needs to be a 3 wave pattern, it was then doing a second.

Just today I read a thread on CNA that Genting is heading for sub 0.90 and he said "mark my word". I added " mark my word, too! "eventually"". But it made me curious, could this be true eventually?

While I was going through my mails later, I have also received a CIMBInvest that they are downgrading Genting now from overweight to equal weight. I have no idea what that means because it is fundamental analysis. I gather that all is not good for Genting at the moment because CIMBInvest used to grade it much higher at 1.30 (funny that I did not see THAT far).


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

So looking BACK at the daily chart AGAIN, it is indeed reversing. The indicators are coming down (with support of divergence). The support level is seen at 0.912 which is around 23.6% of C wave retracement and 50% of its "a" wave retracement. I believe this level should be quite well supported. Further more, both indicators are already 1/2 way down to there isn't much downside allowance. So chances are it stops at 0.912 area.

The other scenario however base on a rectangle B wave, which leads to Genting retrace back to its previous low of 0.84. Of course 0.84 already means below 0.90. However, my bet is that this is not so possible. My feel is that the B wave will penetrate the A of A wave which is at a low of 1.02. There is no base on this prediction, just my hunch.

STI and HSI reversing!!!!

Today at work, I am reverting back to my old task as Field Application. I was practically matching products to the customer requirement. Somehow it feels much tougher than the last time. May be age is catching up, or that I am getting more sick of this job. Is this also a calling for me to be on my own? No one is ready until the take the first step. But then, we are on a verge of another recession and if I am to go out on my own, it has to be at the bottom of the market so that I ride it all the way up.

On my last entry of HSI and STI, I was predicting their reversal. Again I am quite right about the prediction but the timing is always off by one to few days. I have to admit that the timing issue is always a weakness of mine.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

HSI has finally come down, not only that it gapped down in order to break the envelop support of the wedge. I would expect this to be a zig zag pattern which lead it to head lower. The wedge objective is 20,271. However the Zig Zag move will lead it to 18,161(?). Now this level is definitely a little hard to believe, for the moment, let's just see how it goes.


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

Likewise, STI has broken downward. It isan island reversal but no formation to measure its objective. Slightly different from HSI its retracement is almost to the top. Such move has a tendency to lead to a retangle formation, if its low is supported at 2,665. At the same time, I also see the danger of this moving lower, thereby creating a double top, the result would be worse with objective of 2,378.

But then it is good for me, isn't it? Afterall, I have 0 portfolio at the moment.

SSEC could be a good potential investment

I meant to write this blog sinc ea few days ago, unfortunately my service provider M1's system is really bad. The traffic actually came to a a stand still until I gave up, not one time, but a few times. Seriously M1 really need to beef up its coverage on WIFI.

Ever since I have read the book on elliott's wave, I have done my best making wave counting a necessity to my system of measurement on every chart. SSEC was one that I actually made quite a few attempts on the wave count process, unsuccessfully. Its move between September 2007 till October 2008 was in a wedge formation. However, its downward movement was confusing because it resemble a 5 wave pattern instead of 3. while the move from October 2008 till July 2009 I can hardly find a pattern of the 5 waves. The most I can say it is either a short a and b wave with a long c, completing a counter wave of a sort, or at least part of it. It is not so possible for me to count the first wave as a one because of its zig zag behaviour (3 wave).


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

SSEC most recent's move (July 2009 to March 2010) created a congestion pattern, a potential symmetrical triangle. This formation would normally appear as a counter wave. The best I can come up with is the completion of A wave and in process of B. This again is part of a bigger counterwave started since 2007. The major A started September 2007 and completed by October 2008. The present A and B (in progress) is part of the major B.

With B being a triangle, chances are and upward C which would first fulfill the triangle objective followed by completing the Zig Zag move. As such, SSEC or its components would definitely be a good choice for a short term investment.

However, charting always show 2 sides of the story. There is always a chance that SSEC breaking out from the triangle on the lower envelop. Even if this is so, I feel that now is still not the time because you need 5 waves (abcde)to complete a triangle like this.

KLSE Weekly Chart

IT seems that LKY, LHL are not the only one sucks in forecasting. The Singapore Meteorology also sucks. the last I heard from them was that Singapore is going to be hot with above 35DegC until May this year because of the El Nino effect. The truth is it has been raining cats and dogs since their forecast. In fact, my wife said that the December rainy season just came late.


Fig 1 KLSE Weekly Chart

I have ocassionally been looking at KLSE but I have very little interest in the index. I don't play the KL market and it has very little effect on the Singapore market. Ever since I got back my data base, I also noted that its move are filled with gaps, making it a little difficult for wave count.

Now I am not too sure of my count for its upward movement since Nov 2008. Clearly the first wave is a zigzag, indicating that we are still in counter wave. The a zig zag to complete b. The problem now is the c is very long, stretches from Mar 2009 till now. Yet, I do not have any alternate wave count on it. For the time being I would have to accept this count.

The interesting part is that KLSE is reversing through an evening star, well sort of. By right it has to be alone up there with gap before and after. But what I see so far give me some confidence that it is coming down. The closest support comes from 21 weeks moving average at 1,246. Resistance wise, 1,305.

This should qualifies for an immediate reversal, shouldn't it?

Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart
Okay, an engulf candlestick (unconfirmed), Stochastic and RSI reversing with stochastic on divergence, diminishing volume. If all these does not even lead to a reversal starting tomorrow, I chop....some carrots tomorrow (I have 3 in the fridge).

On a serious note, the chance of it coming further down is high because it is into the c of c of B wave. The next wave setting in is C pushing it down to 1.05.

Genting coming down already?

Okay, I am making this short because I am on drug....medication. Caught a bad cough from my son lately. Now the whole family coughing and we have just paid a visit to the doctor last night as a family outing.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

I have change from using the Fibonacci projection to retracement because it is more appropriete. Genting is now on 38.2% retracement line from its C wave and the indicators are already turning. Stochastic are even showing divergence, so anyone in Genting need to thread carefully.

However, I have a feeling that this is only a correction. If the move from September 2009 till January 2010 constitue to a top formation, then this retracement should touch the neck line at 1.04. Moreover, the move during the last few days looks more like a B of the whole structure, so eventually there should still be a c coming. At present the nearest support level is 0.912.

Nikkei 225 on a new front?

I don't know if I have mentioned this before. I am actually a Chinese educated person. My preimary schools were all having Chinese as First Language with English in second or even third ( my Malaysia Chinese School ). I failed my English during mid year while in Secondary 1 and barely pass the subject every year till sec 4. My GCE "O" Level scored C6 for my English and the most embarassing thing was that my General Paper teacher came to me asking if I was a Chinese Ed because my Essay sucks.

As I look back to those time, I really find it interesting that I ended up having interest to writing articles in English. While I am quite satisfied with my work on the blogs, presentations and project proposals. I nevertheless continue to monitor my Eglish grammer all the time. If anyone reading my articles noted I am already quite fluent in the language, I am not.

If one reads in detail, he or she will note of the repetitive use of a few words such as "however", "for instance", "anyway", etc. I do make effort to avoid the use of such words but still due to my limitation, they exist in my writings.


Fig 1 Nikkei225 Daily Chart

It was quite a while ago when I wrote about Nikkei225. I was at that time more bullish on Nikkei225 than others like DJIA, STI or even HSI. After leaving it aloft for a while, it looks as if Nikkei has gone sideway. So the new Government did not manage to push Nikkei to a higher ground?

I am seeing 2 possible patterns on Nikkei right now. It is possible a wedge or a triangle, both resulting the Nikkei going the opposite direction. If a wedge Nikkei will head for around 8,506. A triangle (ascending) on the other hand will lead Nikkei UP to 12,746. The reason I have 2 different possibilities out of the same pattern is because of the overly gentle slope of the upper envelop. It is neither too steep nor absolutely flat, thus the uncertainty.

If I base on wave count, I am seeing a 3 waves down comprising of 3 minor waves to complete A, a simple 3 waves for B and now a 5 waves down with a 3 waves up for the C wave. I should therefore be expecting a 5 wave C down. Using the 1st of the C wave as a gauge, the 3rd of the C wave should at least yield a similar length. This makes a wedge break out a higher possibility.

For the time being, the indicators are also at the top and thus seems to be supporting the notion of a Wedge breakout downward. But no matter what we still need to wait for Nikkei to finish its present move, I assume it would be quite soon.

HSI, STI and USD

I have changed my service provider to M1 since end last year because it is using WIFI for connectivity. It creates more mobility for me and my wife and we can bring along the WIFI unit should my wife need to have a short migration to my mum-in law's place (I travelled frequently).

However, I noticed recently a deterioration in the network efficiency, especially between 9-11PM. The traffic seems to be so heavy at times that the download simply halted and the web-viewer simple put up time out for me. At first I thought it is my data service provider with a lousy system, then I thought its my wife's system which needed to link to her office ntwork. The final conclusion eventually was the network itself. I don't know, if M1 wants to increase its member subscription to use the WIFI, it really needs to increase its bandwidth to cater for more subscribers, otherwise it would really reflect badly on their services.

Anyway, back to the charts. After my last entry on STI and HSI, both charts has defied my prediction and went further up. I am a little uneasy then because I was quite confident that they are coming down base on the indications given. Nevertheless, I must respect the market, they are always right. They are never wrong, it was me who is wrong.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

I was indeed wrong on HSI in terms of the envelop support. My last look on the chart has shown me that it was breaking the envelop support. However, after a second look today, I noted that it was due to my error of alignment on the envelop line that causes my mistake on HSI. After re-alignment, the chart looks different. The envelop supported and HSI rebounded.I am however still right about the wedge and it has still not complted. I should be seeing a mid level 3 waves to complete this B wave, I saw completion of a and b, c has just started. Its immediate resistance is 21,595, but if my projection is correct, its final objective should be around21,757).


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

I am not that wrong on STI. The Engulf did not come true, the day after my prediction it did not produce a confirmation. However,what I did not really expect is that STI is pushing for a full retracement to the top at 2,947. I should have some expectency of it pushing for this level when it passed the 61.8% retracement line but probably I was too eager for it to go down that I decided to ignore this warning sign.


Fig 3 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

The USD versus SGD chart now seems a little out of place since my first 2 charts are of the indices. One might ask why I gang them together. The answer is simple, I am lazy to open another blog for USD. the download time for the web-page is simply too long and I still have to think about th title.

Anyway, USD has retreated from it progress, much to my disappointment. However, it is supported by its 15deg trendline. From the looks of it, the first wave of this seems to be a 3 wave pattern instead of 5. If this is so, am I seeing a counter wave? If so, then the eventual progress of USD will not be as great as I have thought. An alternate count however, indicated a short 1st wave with a zig zag 2nd. This read would be more obtimistic. So what's important is the next wave. If it is a 5 wave pattern, then we can safely say the bear of USD is more or less over after so many years.If however, it is another 3 waves pattern, we should eventually see more low on USD.

So what's good going to come out on a lower USD? I can really consider USA for tour next year if it comes true, cheap, cheap, cheap! But no matter what I hav to earn enough money first.

HSI's Wedge

While STI has just started its reversal, HSI seems way ahead. Already days before people were questioning how come HSI made no further progress. But like I said the last round, it was trapped inside its wedge.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

True enough, HSI has come down today. The interesting part is that while on its descend, it was still supported by its envelop. It did momentarily crossed the border but retreated. However, I doubt that this envelop will hold.

Both indicators are reversing as I type. So My bet is HSI to move ahead down. The wedge objective is 20,107.

STI "Engulf"

Since my last entry on STI, some uncertainties has grown in me.This is mainly because STI then has broken the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. I was wondering if in fact STI is heading for 100% retracement, since there is nothing much between 61.8% and the 100% mark. Futher to that, the evening star pattern did not come through and eventually it kept me wondering again when it is going to turn?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Even for today, I was actually surprise of its bold move in the morning with a gap up of around 19 point. But it became more interesting after lunch when STI started its descend. At the end of the day, it was in the red.

The result is a potential "Engulf" candlestick pattern, the only thing left is the confirmation. If it is down tomorrow, officially we would be seeing a new downward movement.

Already both indicators started to head south. I guess in this case,B is completed. Now if I take a measurment base on zig zag pattern, its objective would be 2,618. IF however, I am wrong on this, resistance at 2,949.

STI and HSI follow up

I am writing this blog at this hour not because I am irressistably passionate about it, but because I woke up with some trouble in my mind and I could not sleep.

I was on business trip the last 2 days in KL for delivery of the solution to the customer. While having a discussion with the customer, the political topic came into the picture. This seems to happen every time I visited him. One interesting comment he has was Malaysia Government is running dry of money and soon it is going to be a net import country. Petronas no longer can support the country with oil money. My guess is that there is no more oil. He further noted that it is a risky move for the government to cut oil subsidies and they would not take such risk unless they can no longer afford it. Anyway, this is not what causes my insomia.

My father gave me some bad news, the beauty salon my mother has is up for sales. The salon has been there since I come to know the world, although I never participated in the business, it is part of my life since young. I have my hair cut all th time until I am 35. The business is making profit but age is catching up with my mom, she can't afford to go on working even at an age of 60-70. When my father told me that they want to sell away the business, a part of me seems to whither. If possible, I would want to buy the business over, but cash is definitely a problem.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Being away for a while is a good thing, because it allows the chart to grow without me being stressed up. As in the case of STI, it continued went up and broke the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. In fact it has reached the objective of the zig zag move. My objective then was 2,868 and it now reached 2,873.

However, the candlestick pattern is a little worrying, if it is down with a gap tomorrow...er....later in the morning, we should be seeing an evening star signifying the end of this mini rally. This prediction is more or less supported by reversing indicators, both on Stochastic and RSI.

So B is completed for STI.


Fig 2 HSI Daily Chart

As for HSI, how far did it go? Not too much I guess. The wedge envelop is strong to keep it inside. The number of waves accumulated in the wedge is 5 from a-e, the wedge is completed. With the indicators also on reversing trend, HSI more or less to follow STI down, together like brothers.

Capmall coming down

I seems to be having time stretch tonight,I have managed to look into quite many charts within a time span of 1 hour. That is on top of me taking some time out to play with my kids before they went to bed. I managed to glance through Forex, indices, my focus counters, penny stocks, and now the index stocks. May be it is because for the whole hour I only have one entry to the Blog.


Fig 1 Capmall Weekly Chart

So while I am glancing through the index related stock, this Capmall came into my sight. I recall this counter used to be called DBSLand. I used to play this stock last time because it was quite cheap. Well, it is still cheap considering it worth only 1.85 now.

As I was say (er...writing) The counter wave count seems quite straight forward with an ABC move.It is the recent moves that makes it quite complex, with each waves overlapping others. If I am not mistaken, this is more like a counterwave to me.

I placed a Fibonacci fan over recent development and noted that this counter is actually going on decline. It keeps going to a lower fan line every time. Now, if I consider the fan to be a tool to observe a reversal, then probably Capmall is at the start of its journey.

Either it is true or it is my make believe, I am seeing more charts on reversal at the moment. They allo have a similar pattern of curving off the top. It does re-enforce my belief that we are on a verge of seeing a second dip. If this is so, probably I would have to count myself lucky because I am not carrying any stock right now. If on the other hand, I am on the other side of the world (the wrong side), then it would also be my dumb luck that this happens.

For now, I am quite certain I am on the right side of the world ( of left because I am a left hander).

Is SSEC going up or down

I have been working on SSEC wave count for some time and it has not been successful. The counter trend in 2008 wiped out almost the whole progress of the index. I was actually having difficulty due to the alternate count. The index could either be a 3 or 5 wave down. So it really depends on the 2009-2010's move to determine if it is in B or a new wave.


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

Looking at its recent move, it is now quite certain that SSEC is in process of making a symatrical triangle. Although this gives equal chance for up and down. The move prior to this indicates a higher probability of an upward trend. The initial count seems to tell me that it has completed the 3rd wave and is now in the 4th.

However, if I stick strictly to the theory, there are 2 more waves before it breaks out. So SSEC it would seem still inside the congestion zone.

Something funny on HSI

I read on CNA today about forumers comments that HSI made spectacular move. On the first look at numbers, it is much more spectacular than STI, 400 plus points up! However, this is not the first time HSI made such move. Even with the gap up, it does not make today's pattern uncommon. In fact, if you look at the chart you can see that it is parts and parcel of HSI, unlike STI.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

I reverted back to the daily chart to see the day to day movement.Although it is a huge move today, there is something very wierd about the whole thing. The most important not is that it is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 21,309, making it highly probable of reversing.

Although both indicators are moving up, I can't help to notice that they are of divergence to the actual level on the chart, showing weakness in the whole thing.

Third and most important, did anyone see the wedge (again!)? Okay, there are simply too many wedges this round, you got big wedge there small wedge here. Can they come up with something else?

Enough about the ranting, so if the wedge holds, it will retreat back down tomorrow because of the envelop. Anyway, a big gap to cover.If I project the wedge downwards, my first measurement on its objective would be 19,887.

My biggest problem at this moment is how can this be so? Since there is a reverse head and shoulder pointing to 22,025, then you have this wedge to bring it down below the neck line? At the present moment, I can't really imagine how the pattern is going to be, we will have to wait longer. My bet is that the wedge would hold a stronger influence than the reverse head and shoulder.

STI a little too much?

Although I am quite happy recently with my predictions, I am a little overwelm with STI. Just last weekend I talked about it going up and Wolla! Here is went this morning. I am however taken aback with the level it went up, a 30 points gap up at the start, this is a little too much, isn't this?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I am now looking at the daily chart of STI and I can see the gap is huge, so this guy better cover the gap tomorrow. My last objective with this index was 2,868, the measurement still remains. the only concern I have is the fibonacci level at around 2,843 (61.8% retracement). It is one of the limits, another one is the Gann Grid resistance which is due tomorrow. Hmmmm... a little too much of a resistance? So it would better contract a little bit before moving on?

As for the indicators, there is not much abnormality in the RSI but if Stochastic is to reverse tomorrow, we would be seeing a divergence indicating a down turn, again. Afterall,I am still looking at a bear tendency and this is the C wave of the B.

If however, it breaks the fibonacci level, the next resistance would be 2,883.

STI weekly Chart Development

Okay, STI finally moving up, not exactly a spectacular step. But what would you expect on a counterwave pattern?


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Now looking at its pattern, there are 2 things that I can say. Firstly, it is in the process of creating the C of B wave. Secondly, it is just out of a flag and completing its objective. The objective that I see now is 2,868.

Is EUD into long overhaul against SGD?

Recently I found that the waves on many charts are very BIG, they are in fact HUGE! To some extend I could not believe myself while I made counts on some of the counters.


Fig 1 EUD Weekly Chart

Take for instance EUD, I actually zoomed the whole chart out to be able to see the whole pattern. This is due to some difficulty in interpreting from a single wave. I ended up with the beginning of the counter trend in 2005, gone down with a wave by 2006 (its a 3-wave because the 4th violates the 1st if it is a 5-wave), its b wave took 2 years to complete ending in 2008 followed by a c completed in end 2008.

One might think that this would be the end of it and now should be a new set of waves. The problem is this wave is damn choppy ending up with a 3-wave movement of X. The present down trend thus would be a new A wave.

From the looks of it, this time the wave is of a 5 wave pattern. It is in the process of creating an extended 3. Its fall is steep and led to a steep decline of its indicators. So where are its support?

I did a Fibonacci projection from the beginning of its 1st of 3rd wave to the 3rd (it is presently completing the 5th of 3rd). The EUD is presently stopped at the 38.2% projection level. I guess it should be rebounding by next week. The chances are high because indicators are reversing although no divergence yet. However, I did learn that sometimes, there is no divergence for a reversal. So let's cross our fingers on this.

Cosco Corp

I went dinner with my wife tonight at Hippn after our Yoga session. I think I mentioned this restaurant before and it is one we frequent because it is just below my mother-in-laws place I chat regularly with the owner and his wife, I got to know them better nowadays.

Tonight Cosco Corp again came into the conversation. He feedback that the peak was 1.37 and he exited with profit at 1.28. But he was curious as to why it kept falling. Base on my memory of the rough pattern, I brought out that Cosco might be hitting 1.03 if it is doing a Zig Zag, considering it has been at 1.20 for quite some time. Anyway, I promised to check it out for them.


Fig 1 Cosco Weekly Chart

As I look at the chart from March 2009 till now, I find it quite confusing in wave count. It simply looked wierd. So what I did was to zoom out to a bigger picture and everything became clearer. Cosco was at a high of 8.10 ( no wonder the greedy SGX put it into the STI portfolio then ) and y Oct 2008 it started its fall all the way to 0.605. The whole move was in fact a 5 wave pattern. So base on Elliotts theory which counter wave is a 3 wave pattern, the 5 wave pattern can only be counted as A. Therefore the move started in Nov 2008 was actually the start of B wave, and it continued on for over a year, a year and 4 months to be more exact.

So far the wedge objective on Cosco should still stand with target of 1.50. I believe the present move downward is the C of the counter wave, support is found at 1.15 which explains its stop at 1.16. But indicators wise, it is not so pleasent, both RSI and Stochastic are heading south and I won't put much hope yet for the next wave to start.

Where did I go wrong with Genting?

After I read the Genting Chart on Tuesday,I was tempted to move in on the counter. However, I found myself reluctant even today to confirm the order. I have the order screen in front of me and on the last minute I switched the window off. What stopped me then was my thought that I have not done enough before moving in. I did not put in all the parameters for this trade especially the stop loss level.

I was surprise that this counter went down today, especially when it hit the 50% projection yesterday, the probability of it rebounding today should be high. Apparently, it had not fallen enough yesterday and went a little more today.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

Looking at the chart, Genting reached the fibonacci 1.618 projection, with both Stochastic and RSI at the bottom region. The probability of this counter rebounding is getting higher.

However, on a bigger picture, it is not a counter to move in to. One thing for sure, my 21 days moving average has crossed the 55 days moving average from the top, it is a golden cross and indicative of a bear market for Genting. Long run would be more South pole exploration and definitely a short target.

Still I have not seen what's wrong with my reading, may be its dumb luck? Because we are playing with probability and there is no 100% certainty. Genting today is still completing its 5 wave move downward so the set up is still right. The question would be when it is going to turn for B?

UOB very BIG move

I have not played Bank stocks for a long time, partially because their price is sky high and I feel it is not worth the money. I still recall the last time I played with DBS, it was only at SGD5-7. Why didn't I keep 1 lot then? I would be much richer now if I did.

Anyway, today someone on CNA forum were talking about UOB diving, so I thought I will take a look.


Fig 1 UOB Weekly Chart

After looking at it, my take on UOB, seems to me it is only the tip of an iceberg. Between March 2009 till recent month, it was doing a B wave, I base this on the seemingly "3rd" wave. It was much shorter than the other 2 which disqualifies it to be 3rd. I would thus say that the whole move is a B and it is a 3 wave pattern.

Now if that is true, we should be seeing C by now. In addition, if all its predecessors are such huge waves, C cannot be small. So will it go back to its low in March 2009? We shall see...........

Genting's up-date

Recently there have been many warnings against Genting like "you go in you die" that kind of curse. So my contrarion half got a brief look at the chart again.


Fig 1 Genting International Daily Chart

Unlike what I saw last Thursday, there is a divergence on the RSI (forget Stochastic because it is much slower in recating to the market). I think its now worth going in.

Addition to that, its downward movement completing a 5 wave pattern, this indicates a counterwave for the next move. Although it may rebound, it might stop at resistance of around 1.03. But no matter what, SGD0.20 is better than nothing.

DJIA on C?

I think it has been some times since I last record my view on DJIA.The last I recall was notation of its breaking the upward wedge and is on its way down. Nevertheless, it has been going back up recently, so I guess it would be good to have an up-date on this index.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

Somehow while gathering my thoughts on how to write this down, I have a flash of me being a Gypsy saying, " Look into the crystal ball...." It is as if I am forecasting the future again. I have been warned not to while I was experimenting fortune telling. Somehow all these things just catch my attention, may be knowing how to see the future gives me the sense of power over the unknown, but that might be explored in a future chapter.

Back to DJIA, its first down wave A was a 3 wave formation and the recent up wave is a C of B wave. So the next step should be ...... tada....down. The prediction seems to be supported by the 2 indicators Stochastic and RSI which are on a verge of coming down. Should this be coming down, the support level should be on 9,901, the last low.

Is there a scary part? I assume there is, A wave was a 3 wave pattern. If this is a zig zag with A a 3 wave, we should be seeing a ABCXABC wave pattern. Only the second set would A and C be a 5 wave pattern. If that is so, DJIA will stretch beyond its Wedge objective.

USD vs EUD

I came across a thread at CNA forum today. The thread started commented that EUD fluctuation against USD was big. I have no idea about the head and tail of what he is talking about. Somehow those forumers on stock market really should put in the effort and write more words. Instead most of them just put a smiley face. Anyway, the thread raised enough interest in me to take a look, afterall, I did write about EUD vs SGD earlier.


Fig 1 EUD vs USD Weekly Chart

Okay, first of all, the fig only shows data of up till 1st March 2010, for 2nd March 2010, it would only be ready by tomorrow. Base on what I see, it is in its C wave. However, I guess it has not yet completed, still lacking a 4th and 5th of C.

As a whole, it could be forming a huge triangle with its next low touching at 12,905 (USD1.2905 per EUD). This coincide with the retracement back to its 23.6% area. At present, it should be doing some rebounding because I think it is right time to do the 4th, probably this is what the Hoohah about on the thread.