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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

4/30/2010

USD has more down side than up right now

I don't know why, I have never the chance to visit USA since birth. I am a frequent traveller and been as for as Canada which is right next to USA, the closest I am is at Nagara fall which I could see US soil right across the rive. Yet, I am having a lot of interest on USD. Many people consider USD junk, tissue or even toilet paper. But can the world live without USD at the moment, I afraid not. It is the common currency for most business transaction and any company needs to trade with other countries need USD. The demand is there.


Fig 1 USD Weekly Chart

As I look at USD, it is in process of fulfilling its head and shoulder objective to reach 13,578. Both RSI and Stochastic areat the bottom poising for reversal. So I guess the next week or to it will be pulling up to touch the neck line.

I am at the same time seeing a bigger head and shoulders, except that this guy's right shoulder is pretty weak. The pattern stretched from July 2008 till July 2009, a full one year. Now I am not sure how prudent is this head and shoulder. If it is being fulfilled, the target would be 12.48.The only problem is that the neckline is too steep.

Anyway, if this is indeed a genuine head and shoulder, then I should also see a retracement to th neck line at above 14500 before coming back down again.For short term, the down side is limited and we shall still see more upside here.

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SSEC Symmetrical Triangle

Just happened to saw some guy's thread in CNA forum this morning bragging about SSEC's triangle and that how come no one mentioned about it. He has definitely not read my blog and my entry on SSEC.

Another guy talked about SSEC not buying "fake" DOW recovery. Well, I can only tells him that it is not that China does not believe in the recover, it could also be investors channelling funds away from China and move it into USA.


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart
As can be seen, SSEC has now broken its triangle envelop and moving towards its objective of 2,287. However, in the short term, it is likely to retrace back to the envelop that it has justbroken down from. Anyway, it is closer to the negative Gann Grid line so it is negative in general direction.

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The completion of false break on STI

In my last entry, I harvested a thought that this would be the false break of STI and that it will go back above the trendline. Well, it did not complete the move in one day but 2.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart
As you can see from the Daily chart, STI has by today moved above the trendline and stayed above. There are 2 predictions that I can make on this:

1) STI is about to have its trend reverse;
2) STI is still going higher;

I will assume that the next higher high would be heading for 3,068 (Fibonacci 50% projection) or 3,099 (Fibonacci 61.8% projection) before coming down. Let's assume my wave count this time is right, I make further projection of the 5th wave to be the same as 1st, then STI is going for 100% projection of 3,202.

This is possible judging from the minor wave count to make this correction a 4th of the 5th wave.


Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart
On weekly basis, the indicators are reversing yet no visibility of a divergence. It is possible that such divergence are much less available in weekly chart, it appeared before on this wave (since Feb 2009).

An after note on the case, I still find my wave count on STI a little wierd especially the 2nd wave which looks too small. The whole thing still looks like a 3 wave pattern of ABC. If this scenario is true, then the projection is going to hit 3,650 base on swing move. Now that will coincide with my projection on DJIA to reach 12,000 region. For now this is still speculative from my end.

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4/28/2010

Singtel, SIA and Straits Asia

I read from CNA today a forumer was asking advice on 4 counters, SIA, Straits Asia, Singtel and Jiutian. He seems lost at what to do as he was stuck in these counters when STI fell. As far as I know, he is on margin. So if the counters fall a little further it would be margin call and he will need to top up or force sell the counters.

It reminded me of my AFP more than 10 years ago, I was not on margin but contra. It is painful when your loss is great but you will have to bite the bullet and let go.

There are many advices given on the forum, many are asking him to average down. Poor chap, what if it continues to go against him?

this made me think, if I am in his position, what should I be doing? The priority is to see if any of the counter worth holding on to, next is to device an exit strategy. So I check up the counters.

Surprisingly, of the 4 counters I do not have up-dates on 3 of them, real lousy service provider. I think when time is up, I have to find alternate source of data base.

I do not really need to discuss Jiutian here because it was done.


Fig 1 Straits Asia Weekly Chart
I first look at Straits Asia, this is the only counter that I have data base on, so I pretty comfortable in my Metastock. The counter is not really that good, a potential head and shoulder. It has not yet crossed the necline and thus the structure cannot be confirm. If I am to let go, it will be the time when this counter falls below 2.028 (below its neckline).

the objective for this head and shoulder is 1.175.


Fig 2 Singtel Weekly Chart
Singtel is in process of forming what looks like a triangle, but short of the abcde wave pattern. If I am to do a wave count, an A wave was formed between end 2007 to end 2008, it is likely to have completed B by mid 2009 and now is in process of C, downward.

There is a little uncertainty in this counter, the indicators are 1/2 way down, I would assume it should continue to come down. If I am to let go of this counter, it would be below the mark of 2.91, which is the support envelop of the triangle.

In the long run, this counter does not look good base on Elliott wave theory. The A wave itself is a 3 waves pattern, so the counter wave may last for quite a while. If A wave has fell from 4 to 2, the C wave should travel a similar distance, so if peak is 3.5, a SGD2 drop will lead to 1.50.


Fig 3 SIA weekly Chart
This counter is the only one promising enough. It has fell off quite a bit (around 0.90) but it is really small considering it came up from the low of 9.05. So far it has not reach the supporting trendline although it is heading there. If I am to let go of this counter, it will be after it crosses the trendline. The support level for this week is around 14.60, next week 14.85 due to its ascending nature.

Just as the above counters,the indicators are coming down, so thread carefully if you are in.

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The situation with STI on Greece

The Greece issue certainly have a huge impact on the Asian market. Probably not because of its exposure to Greece but more its exposure to Europe as a whole.

The market was a gap down since early morning, STI itself was opened 40 points down. I was not really tune to the fundamentals but base on my recent experience, it should have gone back up and closed with only 30 points down. But Greece seems serious enough to pull STI further down ending with close to 60 points below previous closing. That serious-huh?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart
In my last entry, I mentioned of a long term trendline which STI have not broken eventhough the short term trendline was tested. Well, it is officially broken upon gap down. It is even more interesting that this trendline resisted STI when it tried to move up. It stopped exactly at the trendline!

I think I don't need much explanation on indicators except to say that they are coming down.

Elliott Wave wise, this could well be the C minor wave of either a single counter wave or the minor C of A of a major counter wave, but no matter what, it still have a little more to go before completion. The objective of a swing move is 2,914.

STI is also presently resisted by its 21 days moving average at 2,962 and its trendline with tomorrow projection at 2,965. So far it is being attracted to the negative slope of the Gann Grid and support from Gann Grid is 2,889.

Just a personal thought on this. If STI is moving back up tomorrow, it should be breaking above the trendline and supported by the same line.

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4/26/2010

Unifiber Monthly chart

I have not been seeing Unifiber for quite a while because the last time I look at it, I nearly got trapped inside. So someone might ask, " why look at it now?"

The answer is simple, when I check through the readership, I noticed that some people were searching for Unifiber. So it got me interested again. I know that it has dropped to a low of 0.04 after it dropped from 0.06. I was expecting it to go higher to 0.09 or so then. Good thing I have a stop loss.


Fig 1 Unifiber Monthly Chart

IT is really difficult to look at Unifiber on daily basis, it is like looking at a digital waveform with only high and low and nothing in between. Even when I zoomed out to weekly chart, it did not look impressive.

So I check on the Monthly chart. As far as I can see, Unifiber is forming its bottom and it looks like either a double bottom, triple bottom or reverse head and shoulder.

The good news is that the indicators just started to move up. Studying the past records, you can see that every time the indicators bottomed and reverse, the counter moves up.

The other good news is that it is reaching a positive Gann Grid. So this grid is likely to support Unifiber to move up.

By how much? That I am not really sure. During the last round, I was looking at 0.16. I guess it will be the same for this round. The length of the "head" is almost the same as the "left shoulder" So I guess it is about time now. But mind you, we are looking at monthly chart, and the ,movement will at least a month or two.

STI false break

Okay, I did not brag about my day in my last entry. It was because that entry was not intend to be the first entry today, this is.

So I am going to brag about it here. But what to brag about, work was relatively smoothly but slowly because I have to depend on others to achieve my objective. The only thing that I would brag is "Damn! BN won Ulu Selangor!"

I was expecting this to happen although I am disappointed with the loss. BN simply throw money into the constituent to buy vote, and base on Anwar's calculation, they have spent RM65,000 on every 48,000 residents in the area. That was quite a big sum!

BN should really learn from the Singapore Government, they never spent so much, only a few hundreds a person and they gain majority of 66.6% with 82 out of 84 seats. Thge best part is some people actually are grateful to the Government's generosity.


Fig 1 STI 5th wave
The move that STI has done last week constituted a false break on its short term trendline. By short I mean the trendline support for 5th wave alone. False break means a high rist of the index coming down. Nope, there is no pattern yet to indicate objective, just the high potential of it coming down.


Fig 2 STI full 5 waves
If I zoom out the chart and draw the trendline from the bottom to the top of the chart. You will note that it is still well supported. There is not yet any false break, but the index is coming close to the trendline. So watch out!

The indicators are shown t be at the bottom or at least close to it. However, there are times when indicators stay down for quite a long while. we still need a divergence to let us know if it is reversing.

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Nikkei 225 wedge


Fig 1 Nikkei 225 Daily Chart

I looked at the chart of Nikkei225 and noted a wedge formation. Nikkei has not yet broken the envelop and it is very close. I made a simple wave count and noted a complete a-e waves.

So the chance of Nikkei breaking the envelop is relatively higher. The issue with this forecast are the two indicators which are at the bottom turning up. the indicators may still be showing a correction (up) instead of reversal. It is getting close to the Gann Grid negative slope, so the pressure of it coming down is high.

The wedge target is 8,359. To get there,Nikkei needs to cross the envelop at round 10,995.

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4/24/2010

Wave Count of SSEC

I have been following up on the Malaysian by-election at Ulu Selangor recently. They day of balleting day is tomorrow. The whole event running up to polling day has been nothing less than furious fight between the two parties. The stakes are high for both side. If BN wins, it is a sign of reversal into BN's direction. If PR wins, Zaid would be officially be entering the Parliament.

Both teams uses a lot of the smearing campaign, of course, as usual, UMNO continues to dump money to buy more votes. For this round, I worry for PR. Their performance lately has how should I say? Rather disappointing. The alliance has done more in trying to fight against BN rather than strengthening their position. That means they have been slack in serving their constituency. Of course BN never did in the past. But such action from PR only let people think that they are no different from BN, so why change the vote?


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

Anyway, enough of that and this time I look at SSEC again. My last entry indicated much difficuties in counting its wave. I am still having the same trouble. From the weekly chart, a symmetrical triangle is in progress. Having been through a 5 wave down much earlier, SSEC should be in progress of a 3 waves up. The symmetrical triangle seems to denotes a 'abcde' B wave after an A. However, I am unsure.

For one thing, the movement from Sept 2008 to Nov 2008 is a 5 wave movement DOWN, so I have to consider that this is a mega-A wave. Therefore it should now be in process of B wave. If I consider the movement from Nov 2008 till Aug 2009 to be A of the B wave, the triangle would be its B wave and C should be after that.

The number of wave that I see on the triangle is 'abcd' it short of an 'e', meaning uncompleted.


Fig 2 SSEC Daily Chart

Here is my delima, on the daily chart,I can see that SSEC is in process of a potential flag. This is not good because SSEC is breaking the lower envelop as we speak, or as I speak.The result is a minimum objective of 2,783. If this come true, the next to happen would be the fulfillment of the triangle's objective, 2,293. If the daily scenario comes true, then what we see now is a completion of B of B wave and moving into C of B.

As for the indicators, the weekly indicators are turning down although there is not divergence. Divergence is not very common in weekly chart, although there are times we see it. So it is quite safe to deduce that we are seeing a C now.

the indicators on daily basis is on the other hand at the bottom, however, I would expect a formation of divergence before they moves up. This would mean SSEC going further south before its reversal.

I do not see SSEC to be a good place to stay for the short term. Unless, the lower envelop of the triangle manage to hold and the flag formation fails. Then the triangle complete with the e and thus moving up next to complete C, not C of B. Base on the indicators, the odds for this is much lower.

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4/22/2010

Data base not up-dated

Just noted from the charts that my service provider has not up-dated the charts, so the charts I have is until yesterday. Damn my service provider.

Jiutian Chemical want to sue for defamation...

This was a hot topic in CNA forum since last week. Some one called TalkingCock commented on Jiutian when it was coming down ( in a selling climax ) that the way it is going, Jiutian going to delist and the directors are frantically selling off the stocks. Of course it is not right for TalkingCock to say that, he may be considered as a rumour starter.

Jiutian sent out a clarification that no such thing is happening and they are considering taking action against rumour starter and they specified someone in CNA forum without naming names. This heated up the thread and it continued for the next few days until the admin deemed it uncontrollable, deleted the thread.

It is quite funny that my data base has Jiutian stopped in 2007. I am not able to see the full chart till 2010 at all. So I have to borrow my broker's internet charting software to produce the chart.


Fig 1 Jiutian's Chart

I don't know what other sees, I see the chart clearly show a head and shoulder with an objective sending the counter to the ground! What is happening in Jiutian?

Seriously I have no interest in this counter until I saw the thread and I am only writing this entry base on what the technical chart tells me. I also don't know if Jiutian going to send me a letter if they stumble across this entry but my advice to them is focus on their business development instead of stamping out rumours. what shown on internet is only the result of the rumours already spread by mouth. The one typing in is only making a document out of the unwritten stories. If they want to pursue on defamation, they might as well put spies into every kopi tiam.

Anyway, I have checked, there is no more than 20 readers in this blog. the effect I create if there is is very minimum.

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Is 2.30 a reality for Cosco?

There has been much talk about on Cosco lately, it has shot up to 1.86 ever since it broke away from its triangle. The internet has been spreading rumours about this broker up-grade Cosco to 2.00 and that broker to 2.30. So will Cosco go there, or if Cosco would be coming down since the rise is so drastic?


Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

I looked a the chart, check the indicators, and just thought, " it is coming down now."

I do not know if it is a correction or a reversal, I at least recognise a divergence on both Stochastic and RSI. With the amount it has hyped, I can't imagine if there is a non-possibility of a plunge.

Anyone in this counter now, be careful.

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DJIA on 5th wave

I went to Pu Tien for lunch today with my colleagues. No, not the original but another one a few units next to it at Kitchener Road. It Pu Tien Seafood Restaurant.

I have been to this restaurant before during Chinese New Year and this is the second time I am in there. The food is good compare to the original but I am definitely not very keen on going into this restuarant, because this is a copy cat.

True enough there are many copy cat Pu Tien in Singapore, their dishes are the same. What cause me to despise them is the fact that they have no originality. They should have more confidence in their skill and use a different name for their restaurants, why the need to copy in hope that some unsuspecting innocents mistake as the original?

It seems to me that This is a frequent phenomenon in China, the most recent that earned world wide attention being official song for Shanghai World Expo. The guy know very well that his song if selected will be broadcast world wide. Especially when he copy 90% of it, it will take an idiot to not recognise it. The worst thing is that he copy the song from a Japanese writer! Haven't us not enough humiliation from the Japan imperialism during the Second World War? To use the song that he copied from a Japan Artist only go on to justify Japan's reason for the conquest.

seriously, it is as if copying other's masterpiece is a pride in China, has the Chinese no morality and humility left? I am the descendent of the Chinese race and I pride myself for being one. This definitely brings shame to me even when China is so remotely related to me.

If you ask me, I will say this guy need to be charge for treason.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

Looking at the chart I am a little uncertain. No pattern sighted, both indicators are toppish and yet no sign of reversal. However, probably a correction is at hand.

It also seems that DJIA is on the 5th of the 5th wave. If I use Elliott Wave theory, the fifth should be the same as first, then it should eventually be heading for the 38.2% Fibonacci projection @ 12,380. There are however resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (from bottom) @ 11,268. The closest support at the time is 10,827. This also happens to be this week's Gann Grid support.

My guess is that a retracement is needed before DJIA continues to move up. So the Fibonacci 23.6% projection resistance @ 11,759 would be the point.

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4/21/2010

The head and shoulders on USD

Seems like my worst fear is being realized, USD is heading down against SGD!


Fig 1 USD Vs SGD Weekly Chart

Looking at the chart, I can identify a head and shoulder formation between November 2009 to March 2010. It has recently broken the neckline and heading down. The objective of USD is SGD1.358.

However, I think it is not a straight forward thing. It should be rebounding either this or next week to head back to the neck line before completing its objective. For the time being, there is a resistance at SGd1.3782, support at SGD1.3466.

On a side note, I am aware of the report from ST that the Garment intentionally strengthen SGD? I really wonder for what purpose they want to do so. Making Singapore more expensive is not good especially when Singapore is a net export country. the only good out come is that things become much cheaper for Singaporeans since Singapore import most of its stuffs here. The only thing I can think of is "ELECTION".

The way I see it, the ruling party is already expecting a lot of voters moving away from them. That is why they already started their propagenda machines, recent news have been putting more limelight onto the opposition in a negative aspect. Barriers of entry have also been set up by increasing the deposit. In addition, the GRCs are now getting smaller so to minimize damages in case of losses.

But really, for once I feel like seeing the ruling party here losing their deposit. I just don't know if Singaporeans have the guts to do it. If I want to compare, Malaysians are more patriotic than Singaporeans, it is less likely that Singaporeans dare let go of the little benefits given by the present government in exchange for the good of the country.

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Its a sick day

Its a sick day today, and I literally mean sick. My wife and I did not feel well since the morning. She actually popped some panadol to get rid of her headache. I am dis-ease all over my body. There is this sweaty feeling, wet hair, sticky aftermath. Its like the sweat has not been able to evaporate, and the new ones keep accumulating. After my nap, I got a splitting headache. My daughter was having her fever, on and off , we brought her to see the doctor in the afternoon.

My son was the only healthy person in the family, but knowing his sister going to see the doctor, he wanted the same. So we took him there and asked the doctor to give him the Cocanumonia injection.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

It seems like we are not the only one unwell. STI was going no where when I check in at 4:00PM today. I am pretty surprise that it fell much more at the end of the day. The whole day movement was 29 points while 14 points fall compared to yesterday. However, it is still supported by the short term trendline @ 2,961. The support tomorrow will be 2,968. Another support is from 21 days moving average @ 2,953.

The pattern STI just created reminds me of something like a flag, except this is after a gap. Gap measurement is just like a flag or penant, flying at half pole, so I guess there is still one more stretch to go.

Both my indicators Stochastic and RSI are also coming down, they are close to the bottom but not quite there yet. So logically we should be seeing a little more action heading south.

The Gann Grid is holding with tomorrow's resistance at 2,894. It is also interesting to note that the STI is resistance and stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci projection mark.

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4/19/2010

SSEC, a very short time frame for exit

I wonder at times, "why do I write my blog?" I mean I am writing something here, revealing my thoughts to people whom I do not know. Isn't it a little bit dangerous because you don't know what people will do to the information that you give out.

I studied Electronics Engineering at school and language was not my strength. I have bare pass in my English during my "O" level and I struggled through my essay. Writing has never been what I want to when I first came out to this real world.

I guess writing blog is a way I can let out my emotion. It also allow me to be another person, going into a virtual life. For one thing, there is not much plan when you write a blog, you just let your feeling flows (sound a little like Star Wars, isn't it?).


Fig 1 SSEC Daily Chart

I was going through SSEC and noted the plunge. In fact when I check up the Forum this afternoon, people were commenting that it has gone down 4.5%!!! This is huge. Looking at the chart, the indicators give very little allowance for people to react. It was only last Thursday that both RSI and stochastic reached their peak, indicator reversal on Friday with divergance declared. There is almost no chance for people to get out if they have not done so last week.

SSEC only stopped at its support of 2,981. Its RSI is already at the bottom, so most likely it is slowing down in the short run. The good thing is that the Gann Grid is on positive gradient, so there is a possibility that the gradient will support an upward movement. Noting that the US DJIA is more or less stagnant for the time being, probably SSEC will be moving higher tomorrow. But that does not mean the worst is over. It could still be a retracement and it will head further south after that.

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I feel like blogging....

Yes, I wrote earlier that I want to rest my keyboards for a month in my last entry. But today, I felt a compulsion to type something. No, it is not because the market has come down, although STI did come down quite a lot, so do the regional market.

I feel like blogging because there is this energy stuck in me today. I have to write an e-mail to a customer to put a ful stop to a project. This is a nasty customer who adhere to no rules, wreckless in his direction with no marketing strategy for the end product. Worst of all, he thinks everyone has to listen to him. He has no loyalty at all.

Just last Friday, he just sent me a photo with the whole board burnt claiming that it failed in a cyclic test. Does he think that I am born yesterday? It was clear that he overloaded the circuit. I mean the component exploded! So just a warning here. Don't buy any LED CFL replacement Lamp produced by a Malaysian company with address in JB.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Since I am blogging, I will write about STI today. I won't be jumping up and down claiming that the end is here. The last few times I did that STI went further up every single time!!!!

The day I stopped was the day it hit 38.2% Fibonacci projection. It seems to me that this is more crucial than 23.6% and there is a higher chance that the counter will turn at this level.

STI gapped down today creating an island reversal. It is now supported by its short term trendline at 2,953. Tomorrow the level moves up to 2,956. Both indicators are coming down so it is likely to break this level.

STI is also moving towards the negativ gradient of Gann Grid, which more or less explains its pressure to go down.

The support level again is 2,947, resistance 2,996.

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4/14/2010

A pause in my blog

My chart read has been quite inaccurate recently. Mainly because my presupposition of the market position continues to sabotage my derivative.

While writing the blog helps to drive me forward, it has also brought in stress on my ego. I am compelled to right what is wrong, in doing so going further in to justify my position. I recalled a part of the story of Larry Livingston where he was convinced about the price of cotton going to rise by a friend of his, ending up with him trying hard to support a falling market.

I am made to convince of the market by my own charting technique.

This has to stop. Thus I am stopping my blog for a while so that I can pick myself up again. I am giving myself a month to do so and should resume by mid May.

4/13/2010

An up-date on STI 13th April 2010

There are only so many ways you can create for a title on a subject. I kind of run out of ideas for STI title. So making it a little technical, I put a date to let me know the timing of this up-date.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Base on its latest development, the 5 waves are visible, plus STI seems to be working on the C of a very minor ABC wave. I gather that we should be seeing either a correction or reversal at the time.

The indicators on the other hand is a little bit conflicting. Stochastic is reversing back up while RSI is coming down. If I am going to pick, I will pick RSI.

My last up-date indicated a 23.6% projection resistance at 2,997. It went as far as 2,996 before retracing. I would see this level to be quite prudent for the time being. On the low side, it is still supported by the previous high of 2,947.

DJIA went past 11,000

I went back to Malaysia during the weekend. I was supposed to go back the weekend before last but my relatives shifted the schedule for Chin Min as my mom was not freed up.

The members attending the Chin Min is getting lesser. At least 2 of my uncles was not joining us, well, may be they join us in spirit, mainly because they have passed away. Only my parents and my forth uncle and his wife joined us. The rest are my cousins.

We used to have a huge group and there were a lot of fun. Now we left with the males since the married females are not allowed to join us for the prayers to our ancestors.

Anyway, I got more time during the weekend to check up on the counters but not the internet access in Malaysia, so I did not up-date much on my blog.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

As I looked at the DJIA chart, it broke through 11,000. Well, this is not really much "pwsychological" in value, just happened that it ends with "0" does not mean anything if you are into charting. The numbers that charts normally stop at are quite odd. In fact, I was expecting a resistance at 10,955, which it paused for a moment.

It is quite strange to see DJIA continues to climb even when its leading indicators Stochastic and RSI kept flashing warnings with divergence. With the index now above 10,955 which I assume to be a top (not "the top"), I can use this as the basis of my projection using Fibonacci. If DJIA continues to climb after this, it is going to hit the Fibonacci projection resistance at 11,196. I believe that would be the limit should it continues.

If on the other hand, it retrace from here, it is going to get support at the 21-day Moving Average @ 10,832. Coincidentally, there is also a support at 10,827. So this might be a good spot for a rebound.

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4/08/2010

DJIA finally copming down


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

After such a long while, DJIA finally decided to come down. Even after it broke through the wedge, it remained defiance to its destiny and climbed further up.

However, the move yesterday seems to show that it is finally coming down. This is supported by the reversing plus divergenc eof both RSI and Stochastic.

The next support level is 10,827 and the 21 days moving average of 10,783.

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Interesting development on HSI


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

I find the recent development of HSI interesting. It first broke through the wedge formation, went down then defied the principle and causes a wedge failure. In fact it broke through the maximum height of the wedge with a gap.

I have much earlier identified a probable head and shoulders and drawn a red line marking its neck. Coincidentally, HSI's gap caused it to stay above this line. Through these 2 days event, the neck line seems to be quite a prudent support for HSI.

My only concern is this: HSI is in a tight trading band the last 2 days. This is unlike the gaps in the middle of the climb which makes a gap like a penant or a flag. This seems to me a possible island reversal. The neckline support might not hold for long if HSI refuse to move further up.

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STI turned

I took 2 nights off my charting routine. I was relatively drained partly because I have to take care of my son who is coughing non stop and the whole process is recurring.

I was also quite stuck with the charts, I was certain that the market is going to turn but its recent moves kept evading me.The only thing that I found useful was to take a step back and move away from charting for a while. It works most of the time because it helps me to defocus myself. Some times, as in this case, I am more or less there except that I am early.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

My earlier wave count seems to be quite on the spot except for the 4th and 5th wave. With the new heights, I can conclude that the move from August 2009 to Febuary 2010 is the 4th wave and the 5th wave is between Febuary till now.It is quite clear with the 5 waves pattern on the fifth wave.

As I have mentioned during my last entry on STI, after it broke through 2,947, the next objective is 23.6% advancement from 2,947, pointing to 2,997. STI stopped short by a single point. So can we wrap up the bull for this round?

The indicators ARE coming down, further to that, STI is also clinging onto the descending slope of the Gann Grid lines. I find it interesting with Gann Grid. My observation on the working of this is that most of the time, the chart has to break through the grid line, then clinge back and follow the slope, shich ever direction it goes.

The only issue at this moment is STI is hitting the apex between the negative and positive slope. It still can go both ways. I would bet on it coming further down because of the indicators.

The support remains at 2,947.

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4/05/2010

STI Broke 2,947!

I went out with my friend today. It was a coincident, I happened to be on leave (supposingly to go back to Malaysia but cancelled due to last minute rescheduling) while he took leave for his medical check up. It have been quite a while since I have done so. Most of my time have been spent on taking care of my kids all these while that I have forgotten the feeling of aimless loitering. It has also been a long time since we sit down and talked about almost everything under the sun.

Oh! How much I have missed this and it feels really good.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I am however, not feeling so good about STI. First of all, it broke the resistance level of 2,947 which I mentioned last week. I was half expected that because to me it was a 50 50 chance. It went higher with gap up, forming a potential evening star pattern. I don't know, it is like toying with me. I am still bearish though after all these "death defying acts".

The indicators are not really giving me a good bullish feeling. While STI has broken the previous high, the indicators have not, in fact at the moment it seems to be showing divergence.

Nevertheless, the whole thing also mark the crossing of the Fibonacci projection 0% mark. The next level of resistance should lies in its 23.6% which is 2,997. Its funny that all these values seems to show that STI is not going to break 3,000.

The only thing that I still left figuring is the wave count. This latest development no matter what is showing a 5-wave pattern. Assuming my wave count to 3 is correct, the whole set up to "c" was actually part of a huge 4th wave and that "c" was actually a looong "b" with the final dip by Febuary to be "c". That should explain how come there are many 3 waves pattern in "b" and "c".

So if this is the fifth of the fith wave, then probably the reversal is not that far away. It could be tomorrow......

4/02/2010

The EUD SGD Delima

When I saw what happened to EUD on weekly basis last night, I was quite excited. Basically, EUD on weekly basis has created a 2-week reversal pattern (more of less).


Fig 1 EUD vs SGD Daily Chart
Both the Stochastic and RSI also supports the reversal pattern. RSI especially is showing a divergence indication. So I should have confidence in EUD moving north.


Fig 2 EUD vs SGD Monthly Chart

However, just to make sure before I actually start converting some SGD into EUD, I looked into the monthly chart to make sure that it is at the bottom. Unfortunately, it is not that pleasent with the monthly chart. I am seeing three black crows. This is an indication that the counter is still on a southern trend. The only consolation over the whole matter is the indicators are reversing at the bottom. But it could still mean some more southern moves still for probably a month or 2.

My interpretation so far might be that EUD will be doing a correction with retracement from 23.6% ( 192.27) to 32.8% (195.61). If this is the case, we are only looking at a margin of 6%, this excludes the commission for exchange. So the delima here is, to go in or not to go in?

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4/01/2010

The word I can used for describing STI Today

I was busy the whole day. The company has been busy preparing for the "grand opening" again after we have shifted and part of my duty is to do some decoration at the demonstration drawer. Then there was a meeting that lasted till end of day.

So when I looked at the indices at 5:30PM, only one word came to my mind, "DAMN!"

Yes, even after the confirmation on the Deliberation yesterday, it not only short up but by passed the previous high and is now reaching my last predicted limit, stopping at 2,946, just one point short.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

So what have I got to say? Why did the market go against my wish? I was looking forward to its reversal.

I have to go back to my teacher again. I remember that he mentioned during the class, "The market is never wrong. If the market is wrong, it is you who is wrong." Some how it is like "rule 1: the customer is always right; Rule 2: if the customer is wrong, refer to rule 1;"

So I have to see what is wrong here. Okay, there is nothing wrong with the prediction of the Deliberation, it DID come down and went near to its previous low. Probably the support at that point was strong to the extend that the index rebound.

Probably I was too quick and desperate for it to come down that I have also ignored the rule of divergence. There was not much divergence from the indicator yet until today.

But the most important lesson I think is that we are playing with probability. Even with technical analysis, it is only giving me an edge with measurement of odds. There is always a chance that it will fail, and in this case, did the deliberation fail? To some extend it did. It also show that STI is not coming down, not just yet.

By now, divergence is seen on the indicator, the tendency of reversing down is stronger. I would see 2,947 is an important resistance to STI. Base on Fibonacci projection, breaking 2,947 will lead to 23.6% landing at 2,996 to 61.8% of 3,098.

However, my gut feel still tells me that STI is due to fall. My suspicion is that it is not going to break 2,947.

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