Something interesting on Cosco

I have not up-date my Cosco for a while. the last time I checked on Cosco, it was doing the c wave. It is very different when I look today.


Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

Cosco has created 2 patterns, a triangle with objective at 1.75 and a flag in progress, if completed, its objective is around 1.76.

So I guess is a good choice for the time being.Stop loss would be around 1.50.

I am pretty sick of PowerPoint....

I have been spending my last few weeks working on my presentations for product promotion and for Board of Directors meeting. While it helps a lot in my creativity, I am growing sick of seeing Powerpoint by now. Come to think of it, Powerpoint and me have come a long way since I started my career in product marketing. It has been more than 10 years since I first touched on Power point and frankly, I am very sick of see Powerpoint right now. I just wonder if the same applies to marriage?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

So if I am looking at STI everyday and predicting its next move, the same disgust will apply. So today, I will record something different.If you look at the chart itself, you will notice that the uptrend wave pattern seems to mirror that of the downtrend. Both started with a 3 waves down with a relatively complex B, and ending with a 5wave C. Well, technically we can't say that the present up-trend is over but counting the C wave, it should be soon enough.

Dow on 3 white soldiers?

I have a brief look at Dow, just like STI I am getting a little confused by its divergences. On one hand, Dow has 3 white bars moving up, this is a three white soldiers with indication of bullish tendency. On the other hand, the indicators are peaking off. RSI is more prominent with signs of momentum slow down.


Fig 1 Dow Daily Chart

Another sign comes from the Gann Grid lines which will be resisting further advances. There is a high chance that Dow is correcting today.

Loads and loads of work

I think it is not the first time I complaint about not up-dating my blog. I have been very busy lately. Since I can't depend on other departments to help on product promotion, I have to convert my engineers to do so. Knowing how engineers think, I find myself needing to convert their mindset from an engineer to a sales and marketing.

I have to create th presentation for them to conduct seminars, product promotion, and even train them on how to give a speech. The worst thing is that they are acting like Engineers. So what do I mean.

If you are a Sales and Marketing, you are always putting the customers first because you know they bring in revenues. Engineers on the other hand do not have this mindset, there is a certain pride in them that they will think what the customers should be getting. The presentations from the Engineers are very technical and lacks juice to tell the customers, "here, work with me and you get a better result." I think the audience will fall asleep during the lecture.

While I feel bad about stopping on my entries. There are still some good out of it. For a start there has been some development since my last entry.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI has broken the upper resistant envelop and actually reached the minimum objective of the rectangle. It went as high as 3,991 today before retreating to below the 2,985 objective.

At the same time, it does not look good on both RSI and Stochastic. While RSI has not really shown any divergence, Stochastic did. RSI is also observed to be relatively weak in climbing higher. So are we seeing a retracement soon? On the early stage, I will think so. The break out from the rectangle seems to complete a 5 wave pattern for the move since 30th June. If it is going up it is relatively limited.

While saying that, there is another pattern on STI that I have missed, since I believed so strongly that STI is going for second dip. the move between 4th May till 7th July 2010, STI created a reverse head and shoulder. This reversal pattern result in an minimum objective of 3,131.

So what should I make out of this? A correction is right round the corner, but it is more like a retracement to the neck line presently at 2,879. The completion of the retracement will lead to STI moving to the next level at 3,131. How accurate is this prediction? Is there any discripency?

The only discripency is that the move from 25th May till 21st June being a 3 wave pattern. That constitute a wave A. This followed by a 3-wave B retracement before completing a 5-wave C retracement. This is the alternate view. If this is true, then it is possible that we are at the end of a B wave. If this is so, the next wave C will lead STI to a level of 2,600 base on a swing move.

Some times life's sucks, isn't it? There are always 2 ways to look at the situation and you need to choose which one you trust more. But then both readings have one thing in common, a correction is near.

The congestion band

Life has not been that dull these few days. I am motivating my R & D Engineers to become a Sales and Marketing, I am embedding suggestions into them on learning to read customer's mindset. The thing is that I am converting my R & D into a Technical Sales team. Its funny that a Perceiver like me is very interested in organizing strategies. It is like going to war and you need to plan your tactics to over come the enermies.

I have not been up-dating the blog the last few days, I was really, really tired, my eyes could hardly open while reading the charts, and yes, I still read the charts even though I did not do any blog entry.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

What I can say is that STI is in a congestion band, a small one which looks more like a mini rectangle. There are 2 possible outcome to this, one is that it breaks up-ward with objective of 2,985. If it breaks downward, the objective would be 2,904. There are 2 levels that one needs to monitor, support at 2,930 and resistance of 2,958. These are the breaking points of the rectangle ( or tripple top, a small one ).

So far I am having divergence on the RSI, downward. Therefore STI is likely to move downward mid term.

My take on STI

I believe I have lapsed for another 2 days on my blog. There is nothing much to write right now, market is extremely dull.

I have a check on CNA forum today, some forumers commented that STI is very strong! If it is, I don't see it. Probably they are referring to STI in the green even though world market started falling. Well, haven't they considered STI to be lagging?


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

On the weekly basis, both indicators are still rising but with limited up-side. At the same time, STI itself is reaching the Fibonacci Arc, something is going to happen, I believe the Fibonacci Arc will trigger the STI to tur south.


Fig STI Daily Chart

On the daily basis, even when STI is up, it continues to trade in a tight band. Both indicators seems to be making the second top, but even though STI reached a new peak today (as compared to 2 days ago), the indicators has not surpassed the previous high. So is this a potential divergence?

If I am to analysis the situation, this is not a time to go in nor come out of Sg market. It is still a hold.

I have not been up-dating much on this blog lately, partly because I am troubled at work. The projects quantity are getting low and there is no venue to bring in new projects from my originally intended source.I am in fact in process of restrategising my team's formation and converting R & D into Marketing. Good thing is that most of my team is willing to work with me to get new projects in.

The other part of my hessitation is mainly because I am in doubt of the present market situation.STI has been going up, but it continues to trade in a very tight band everyday, even after gapping up in the morning.

The gapping is mainly due to influence from over night market performance of Dow Jones. Trading within a tight band on the other hand signifies a lack of traders participation. Many are on the side lines and I think they are not convinced of the market neither.

Today for example has seen Government announcing a GDP growth of 13-15%. This is supposed to be GREAT news and yet it still fail to excite the market. Something is wrong somewhere, I just don't quite pin point the location.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

From the chart of STI, it can be seen that both indicators are very toppish. While RSI still wanting to climb higher, Stochastic has already started falling. STI has climbed just above the resistance of 2,947 and ended up higher at 2,952. The next level of resistance would probably be at 3,037. Support wise I refer to the 21 days moving average at 2,870.

What's become of USD vs SGD?

I don't recall when my last up-date on USD vs SGD was. All I remember was that I was relatively bullish on this forex. So what has become of USD vs SGD?


Fig 1 USDvSGD Weekly Chart

Actually, I find it a little disgusting when looking at USD on weekly basis. It has made attempts to move up but every time it did that, it retraced. It went as low as 13,647, near the lowest point of 13,460. For the time being, both RSI and Stochastic are coming lower and are already in the southern half of earth.

The only good thing that I see is that it is presently located at the positve gradient of Gann Grid lines, there is still a chance that it will go higher from here. The 21 weeks moving average is resisting at 13,941 while the 89 weeks at 14,227. With uncertainty on the weekly chart, it is thus worthwhile to look at it on monthly time frame.


Fig 2 USDvSGD Monthly Chart

The monthly chart on the other hand is portraying another story. By zooming out the chart, USD seems to be showing a bottom formation in progress. It is either a double
or tripple bottom, which is it I am not sure. What I am sure of is divergence is seen on Stochastic while RSI is having higher highs. I feel that the down trend is really limited as the Bollinger Band is narrowing which created a scenary of USD vs SGD trading at a narrow band.

I am still having confidence that USD has limited down trend with much potential for reversal. It is however too early at this point to determine its objective because the pattern has not yet established. We will probably have to wait longer for the flower to be full bloomed.

DJIA going to correct

My last up-date on STI indicated uncertainty on my part. This is mainly because STI is at a cross road to me. While there are a few factors on chart influencing its direction I was not so sure which would be the one.

At the moment, the one thing that seems to drive STI is the Dow, STI is following Dow's up-trend to push itself up. With Dow's help it has now surpassed 2,900 mark. So it worth while to look at Dow for a while.


DJIA Weekly Chart

Base on the indicators Stochastic and RSI, Dow ia certainly on the up trend on weekly basis. Both indicators are at the bottom and with divergence. Its 21-week Moving Average is resisting at 10,322 while 89-week moving average supporting at 10,123. One thing to note is the trend resistance line presently located at 10,323. So it seems that while it is gearing for up trend, there are some factors preventing its progress.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

Moving onto the daily chart,it seems to be telling a different story. Stochastic and RSI are toppish, especially for Stochastic. RSI is tapering off. This is much in contrast to a few days back when Dow was only on verge of reversal.

Additionally, Dow is also reaching the apex of the Gann Grid lines transfering from positive to negative gradient. My guess is, Dow is reversing again.

So if Dow is on continuation mark on weekly while reversal mark on daily, Dow should be on a correction on the coming week. At the same time, I feel that Dow might not go very far this time round, especially when the indicators move too fast. It is giving little leeway for Dow to progress. A correction would do Dow much good.

Is STI on continuation uptrend?

I was quite positve that STI would be coming down today. I mentioned in my entry last night of the various reason that STI should be coming down. So it was to my surprise that it went up 36 points today. 36 points is quite a large step.

So the market went against my judgement, but then as my teacher said, it is not the market that is wrong, it is me who is in the wrong, because the market is always right. I was wrong in my prediction last night.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I think the very thing that make me wrong is the US market. At the time of my prediction, I have ignored the sign from Dow Jones of which the indicators are at the bottom. This is in contrast to the indicators on STI. When I looked at the Dow last night, a question popped into my mind, "how would a rising Dow creates a descending STI?" Well, if it should, it did not manage last night.


fig 2 STI Daily Chart

So what would STI be doing from now? I am not sure, at least for tomorrow. While STI shot up, it is uncertain of its present position, creating a spinning top. Due to its gap up, it is also a potential evening star. In addition, it is resisted at the negative gradient of Gann Grid lines.

While it has penetrated the previous high, the level of penetration is very mild and requires tomorrow to confirm.

My guess is that it will be a retracement tomorrow. If this is the case, we would be seeing yet another reversal downwards. While it has gone up quite a bit today, I still believe that it is on reversal. The only confirmation other wise would be STI moving higher still tomorrow.

Oh, lazy me.....

I have not been blogging for a while, I made a check on my last entry and it was dated 30th June 2010. Oh, lazy me.

I was quite reluctant to write my entries during the past week, partially because of the problem at work, partially due to a dull market with my already settled perception that market has already reversed but taking its time to come down. But the major reason is because of Criminal Minds, literally.

I have bought the DVDs for Criminal Minds recently and I fell in love with the series. It portray the one thing I find interesting about, serial killers. Yup! The show does nothing except a series of 45 minutes stories of the FBI Behaviour Analysis Unit profiling different types of serial killers, which happens to be one of my favourite interest.

Best of all, my wife was hooked on the series and watched it with me all night, except for tonight of course. Chasing the series has a toll on our energy level and both of us felt lacking in sleep each morning. So we decide to take a rest tonight, and guess what I am doing?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I remember my last entry mentioned about STI reaching a point of potential continuation and if it crosses 2,890, a continuation is confirmed. Well, it didn't last week. and it is about to try (try) again this week.

However, my feel is that it will again fail. the RSI is turning south at this moment, adding to that, a Harami is formed today ( need confirmation ) with STI crossing from the positive to negative gradient of the Gann Grid. There seems to be more pressure for STI to head south.

I am betting STI will be going down tomorrow.At present the 21 and 89 days moving averages are supporting at 2,835. So we shall see.