Has Genting reversed?

My last entry talked about Genting is at dangerous level with a 60 degree climb. Then the next day it started dropping, so for a moment there I thought, "Wah! So jun-ah?"

Seriously speaking, was that the explosive closing that I have mentioned?


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

Actually the price move is quite disappointing, it really did not go with a bang! The same thing is said about the volume on that day. For the next 2 days this counter has been going down, but not the way I picture it for an aggressive counter.

While Stochastic and RSI has shown a momentum downward, my guess is that it is not yet finish, this is still just a correction. I recall a spike reversal that I have learned before, there were 3 different configurations, one straight with 1 day reversal pattern, the second one is a spike, then followed by a short congestion creating a flag. The third is actually a flag before the spike, which I feel is more fitting for this counter.

My last read indicated a peak at 2.34. It is still possible that there it would rest.

KLSE 3 white Soldiers?

Fig 1 KLSE monthly chart

I see 3 white soldiers on KLSE chart, so is KLSE continue to ramp?

An example of market Euphoria

During the early days of my pursue of knowledge in the field of Technical analysis, my teacher ever told me of the 3 phases of movement.

When a chart starts to move, it begins with gradual 20-30 degree climb. This would be relatively dull and boring. As interests on the counter grow, its angle of assencion change to 45 degree. This is where demand equal supply. There is however a time when the climb turn steep to an angle of 60 degree. This is what he told me as market euphoria. It is at this point when people do not care, they will never think any alternative will be possible.

Sadly this is also the point where the bubble will burst any time. It will end with a sectacular display of fire works, huge volume with huge move. Before you know it, the chart will quickly descend.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

Here, I am witnessing a market euphoria at work, people continues to predict how much higher it is going without the consideration of market reversal. The indicators are that the peak and have once defied a possibility of divergence. If this counter continues to go up, how far will it be going? Base on Fibonacci projection that I have placed in, target would be somewhere at 2.34.

But then I won't really dare to go in this one, it will be too late to do so anyway and it is not safe.

The rectangle on SSEC

It has been a while since I looked at SSEC. My ast check was that it should be heading south, it did but not as south as I expected it to be.


Fig 1 SSEC Daily Chart

A look at the chart today, I see that SSEC has been congesting for quite a while. the congestion leads to the formation of a rectangle. The measurement of the pattern means an objective of 2,840.

On the other hand, if we are to see this as a double top reversal, which is possible. It should be heading for 2,420.

So what would it be? Both indicators are at the bottom and trending back up with the chart near the lower envelop of the rectangle. My guess is that SSEC is going to bounce tomorrow.

STI moving up....

In the first place, I won't say it is spectacular, because it is quite dull today. In fact, unconciously somewhere I am expecting some form of correction.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

The way I see it, both indicators are stagnant, they can't determine it should go up or down. In both cases, they are quite toppish if you ask me. While this is so, I feel that there are still some rooms for it to head up.

As it has broken the previous high, I draw a Fibonacci projection base on the point of penetration. The closest 23.6% resistance of the projection is 3,141. I guess there is a chance of STI hitting this height, that is if its indicators do not break downward.

The support on the other hand is located at 3,043.

Trouble with Wave Count on STI

As the title suggest, I am having some issue with wave count on STI. This is not the first time I make amendment to STI's wave count, and I am looking forward for this to be the last.

The trouble with wave count on STI lies in its not very clear representation on the counter waves.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

The first problem is the development between July to November last year. It is a counterwave but the extend of time needed to complete this wave makes me feel that it is a 4th wave. The other issue is the development between January to May 2010. This is a major counterwave. However, base on record, it is common to have the B wave overshoot A. The magnitude of the move is definitely greater than the 4th wave mentioned earlier.

I sense something wrong with the count but it does take the latest move of STI for me to further convince me with a recount. The latest move is a 5 wave pattern that goes higher than previous peak, this should not happen in a counterwave.

So after the recount, the scenario is much better. Now it shows that STI is on the 5th wave. Base on Fibonacci projection, it should meet resistance at 23.6% Fib projection @ 3,297. The support would be its previous high of 3,037.

An up-date on USD

It has been a while since my last up-date on USD. While it has come down, it was still hovering above 13,460 during my last look. I was hoping that this level would be its lowest before it rebound.

A look at USD vs SGD today mainly and I am rather disappointed. It broke through the 13,460 support level which is now its resistance. Its present level is 13,325. The most important question for me now is, "will it fall further?"


Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

There are 2 signs that I see is encouraging. First of all, the final move lately shows a 5 wave movement downward which could signify a completion of a single move. What's more, we are dealing a counter wave, of which the final wave is a 5-wave movement.

Looking at the indicators, while USD has reached a new low, the same can't be said for both Stochastic and RSI. They are potentially signs of divergence. However, this still need to be confirmed.

If I use Fibonacci projection on the downward movement, it would be supported at its 23.6% projection value of 13,034. Now 13,460 has become the resistance.

A few days break and STI broke 3,043...

It has been quite a while since I last went back to Malaysia, so I took the opportunity of Hari Raya long weekend to drive my family back to KL for the weekend.

We set out very early in the morning at around 5:30AM hopefully to escape the possible traffic jam. Surprisingly the custom was nearly empty when we crossed at 6:30AM. It was only after we crossed the custom that we saw a slight build up of traffic.

The trip this time was different. My parents joined membership to Grand Millenium Hotel and we got a free stay for one day. Finally after close to 10 years of marrying to me, my wife finally got to walk at Bukit Bintang and Time Square. Certainly it was quite embarassing for her when her colleagues talked about their trip to KL when she who married someone from KL even stepped out of the residential area. The other malls that she has visited were Parvillion and Mid Valley.

While she got to walked at Time Square, it was rather disappointing because the place was so messy. We used to dislike Parvillion as we have been there for quite many times, a visit to Time Square certainly made us appreciate Parvillion more.



Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I just got to look at STI today after 2 more days of rest from my trip. While I anticipate the possibility of STI hitting previous high, it is quite a surprise to me that it over shoot 3,043! Definitely this makes the wave count more complex than before and I would have to temperary forgo this tactic.

Instead I have to rely on the indicators again. In my earlier entry, I noted Stochastic has shown divergence which is early sign for reversal. Now, RSI has joined in with the samw warning, to me, RSI is more prudent than Stochastic.

Should STI continue to shoot up, its next resistance base on Fibonacci projection is around 3,140, support for the time being remains at 3,043. However, if it fall further, it will be supported by the 21 days moving average at 2,991.

SM Goh's comment for "illustrative purpose" only.

Just came across this article after my last entry, it gives me the feeling that his words hold no relevance at all.

My guess is that his existence in politics is to justify legitimacy of MM post.

Converting 10% of PRs to citizens "not a target": SM Goh's press secretary

By Joanne Chan Posted: 08 September 2010 1912 hrs

SINGAPORE: The press secretary to Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong has said that the figure mentioned by Mr Goh about Permanent Residents who will be asked to take up citizenship, was only for "illustrative purposes".

Mr Ho Tong Yen was replying to queries following Mr Goh's comments at a dialogue session at Marine Parade on Monday.

Mr Goh was reported as saying that the government might approach ten percent of PRs in Singapore to take up citizenship and if they did not do so, their PR status would not be renewed.

Mr Ho said that the Senior Minister was making a general observation to illustrate the point that the government would be managing the inflow of PRs and that some would be encouraged to become citizens.

The figure of ten percent which Mr Goh gave was "not a target", and it is also not the case that all PRs who turn down the offer of Singapore citizenship would not have their PR status renewed, said Mr Ho.

The government will continue to review and refine its policies to ensure that those who have PR status are an asset to Singapore's society and that those who are given citizenship are, in addition, assessed to be committed in their allegiance to Singapore, added Mr Ho.

- CNA/ir

Cosco update

There was this hot topic on forum today about SM Goh's comment that the Garment will strategise to get 500,000 PR holders to convert to Citizen. Almost immediately many forumers fell in to criticise on those PRs who have been holding on to the status for many year without conversion. Some even went on to suggest that the PRs should even pay an annual fee for protection.

To me, what SM Goh said is nothing but diversion of the immigration heat wave that they are experiencing from the people. This reminds me of Rome Colosseum. the very purpose it was built is to entertain people so that they are diverted from the political incompetence of the Government then.

The question is, does changing these 500,000 people into citizen solve the problem of over crowding? It does not, because that is not where the problem lies. SM Goh's comment shows that he simply failed to understand the most crucial issue here. Singapore is over crowded with the facilities and opportunity has been spread thin. Changing 1/2 of them to PR simply made this 250,000 permanant. One might think that you would at least reduece the number by 250,000. That is however not the case,they simply reverted to stay on unsing Employment passes. You will still have these 500,000 here in this country.

What I see here is the Garment not able to tackle the problem they have created through indiscriminant reception of foreigners into this country. In the earlier period, receiving PR-ship was a prestidge because you must qualified with certain qualities such as academic grades before you are even "invited" to apply for PR. Now even prostitute and bus drivers can get PR-ship.

The Garment has done a few major screw ups and they are finding it an up-hill task now to even get the people's support. They are also spooked by what happened in Malaysia and they know that they are next. SM Goh's comment is a desperate ploy to grab support on the ground level.

So what's the forumers so happy about? They have just been conned into thinking the Garment has responded to them when in fact the Garment is trying to make this thread of their permanant. Even if he meant what he said, I doubt that he has the power to do so, he is afterall quite a paper tiger at this point of time.


Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

Coming back to the chart, I was not able to get into the blog web yesterday because of heavy traffic sometime at 10:30PM. I wanted to type something on Cosco because I found it quite interesting.

I have earlier noted that it was in the middle of B wave, by earlier august, rightfully the B wave should have completed and C should have started. However, C wave did not materialise. instead it is on extended B with completion of x and then a second a wave.

At present, both indicators are coinciding with the completion of a wave and I suspect b wave is starting. The 21 days moving average is supporting at 1.59 and I estimate it might fall to 1.50.

A Dow Jones up-date

I have received an SMS from a friend this morning (actually he sent it during the weekend). He asked me to look into DJIA for him.


Fig 1 DJIA weekly chart

Actually I am a little uncertain at this moment because everything seems to be in the middle. Both Stochastic and RSI are half way down when they turn. I am also seeing a correction on Dow Jones itself, and I am referring to last week. It was very positive even with the negative news. There is also a resistance at 10,495 while the 21 weeks Moving Average is supporting at 10,333.

My suspicion at the moment is that Dow is on b wave of its down cycle, afterall, it is on the negative gradient of the Gann grid line. It may be having very limited up trend this week judging from how close it is to the resistance.

Fuyu Manufacturing

To improve my sleep, I promised myself to sleep at 12:00AM tonight, it is past 12 now so I guess this is my last entry today.


Fig 1 Fuyu Manufacturing Daily Chart

I have been tempted to buy this counter the last few days because of its pull back from its top of 0.155. Yet, I can't make myself to long this counter. Both its indicators are showing divergence on the last to tops. Further more, the RSI is reaching the trend resistance.

While Fuyu has stayed at 0.12 for the last 2 days, I was really reluctant to buy. I suspect that it may not go far in the short term.

Genting @ 1.80

I have been quite letargic lately. I have seen the sensei and he mentioned its because of the humidity and gave me some medicine. So far it has not been much effective. I myself suspect that it was contributed by my "waking" sleep. Been on work pressure lately and there are again human issue. May be I am on the verge of depression again. I had better get my psycholigical balancing check.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

I also want to write about Genting today. Everyone know by today that it has gone up to SGD1.80 and probably no point saying that I have seen this last week. However, I think it is important to make this entry.

I saw the potential of this counter last week when it broke the fibonacci retracement line with gaps and congestion at 1.50-1.60 level. The break up was unexpected. But what follows should. Because of the gap, there is a measurement and I noted an objective of 1.80.

The problem was that I did not act on it, mainly because the regional market including the DJIA is moving south. While STI was out of phase, there is a fear that it might eventually fall in line. I have decided to let it go even when it could reach 1.80.

A call from my friend made me think. He often called me asking things about stock market and he has recently resigned from his job. Out of bordem, he set up a mind set of taking the stock market as a computer game and he ended up earning from the US market. While we were talking I noted Genting broke out at 1.60 and was at 1.65, I even told him that the target was 1.80. He commented," And you didn't buy? Why am I who is probably an outsider trying to earn money from the market while you know where it is going but does not want to gain from it?"

I think a part of me is in fear of failure and I have not yet overcome this obstacle. It is time that I do so.

While Genting is up at SGD1.80 and some even boast about it hitting SGD2.00. I ave my doubt at the moment. There is a divergence on the volume. On its first break out, there was a surge in volume, yet the latest break out the market has not shown the same enthusiastic. This also coincide with both Stochastic and RSI at the top.

There could be a little more that Genting should go, some where 1.85 base on one of my measurement of the swing move.