Long time never see HSI

It has been quite some time since I last talked about HSI. Probably because its movement did not really affect STI much nowadays.


Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

Looking at it now however, seems like it has all the signs of going down. RSI and Stochastic on down trend, with clear divergence downward. The best part are the 3 black crows from Candlesticks. The next support level is 22,388.

I wonder...

I was clearing some of my leaves since Thursday, coincidentally it was also my daughter's graduation ceremony. Her class was to perform a dance to the teachers and parents. The dance itself is quite up to standard, for a K2 class that is.

I also spent my Friday with my kids, the school was closed to rest after the graduation session, so I brought them to watch Rapunzel, my daughter loves it, my son likes it and I am quite facinated by the 3D effect. The bad thing though is that you need to wear the glasses, and the tickets cost SGD14.00 each! So for three of us we have spent SGD42.00 for movie alone.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

This is the weekly chart. If I base on the indicators, what I have is both Stochasitc and RSI heading south, meaning that there are more down side to STI.

I am a little confuse though. The recent dip looks more like a 4th of the 5th wave. The dip in April looks like a simple 2 and this a complex 4th. So base on this analogy, there is a chance for STI to go higher still, one more shot before it fizzles out.

There might still be a chance to hit 3,400. which is around the point of 23.6% Fibonacci projection. Its support on the other hand comes from 21 weeks moving average of 3,084.

The STI plunge...

I am not really in a happy mood by the evening today. No, I was not affected by the stock market, in fact I have no idea what happened until I check the chart. My last check in the morning only registered a 22 point drop.

So what was my anger? My team was engaged with a customer on a project. The Engineer worked for a few months to improve on the design to hand the prototype to the customer. We have received a good news last weekend that he was to transfer the project to his sub-con. This means that he would be going through pilot run and mass production! The projected volume of the mass run is substantial.

Yet my sales team have very luke warm response to the news, in fact, almost nothing is heard from them. It turned out that the sub-con is a bad pay master and they were contemplating to drop the opportunity! For the few months we were working on the project, no one on their side actually check up with the customer on his strategy and only until the project come to a close that they realise its a no go and would just drop the opportunity wthout a single consideration of the work put in? Damn!


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, I guess STI share my sentiments today. I was expecting some pull back before it plunge further, it seems like STI can't wait! I was lazy in my entry last night because I was not expecting the plunge, my registered level was 23.6% Fibonacci support at 3,171, and 32.8% Fibonacci support at 3,155. I never thought that it will go as far as 61.8% Fibonacci of 3,126. In fact it went below to 3,126!

But then, with both Stochastic and RSI digging underground now, It is also supported by the probable neck line of 3,119. Most likely STI will rebound for the next few days. It is also possible for it to form the right shoulder this time, afterall, weekly chart only register the beginning of the fall.

If however, it fall through, then the next level of support is the 89 days moving average of 3,097 and support of 3,043.

Genting going down.....

I recall my last up-date on Genting that it was not yet the end and only a fire work will makr its ending. Well, I have not really seen fire works yet but now I am bearish on Genting.


Fig 1 Genting Weekly Chart

I am doing a read on Genting on weekly basis to check on what it was doing. The volume seen the last 2 weeks were definitely much greater but failed to stand out. Further more, while it has by last week opened higher than the week before, reached a new height and fell below the previous close, it was not exactly something noticeably different. I was expecting a spike reversal and it had not happened.

However, both RSI and Stochastic indicators are reversed downward with confirmation through divergence. These are strong indication of a trend reversal. However, my guess is that: like its overlord the STI, it should be going down for the a few weeks before moving back up.

Genting is presently supported at ... welll, I did not really see previous highs. But a previous low of 1.85 might indicate a support level there. The 21 weeks moving average on the other hand is supporting at 1.80.

The MOE scholar caught with child porn

Okay, the bottom line is still writing about stock market, but today I want to add y thought on the recent child porn story.

An MOE scholar who is in his final year studying history in University of York was caught with 50 child porn on his computer. My first thought as a parents is that its quite disgusting. Imagine that he is going to work in Ministry of Education (MOE) and would probably be a teacher teaching and engaging with children all the time. It will give him ample opportunity to act out his fantasies. What makes it worst is that he was already known as a Peeping Tom in Secondary school and were reported to have been caned publicly!

The netizens have been roaring for the last few days with heated debate on the case, most were critical of the MOE on its selection criteria, how does one candidate with such flaw be sip through the scanning process? Many wants the MOE to answer for doing such a sloppy job.

The official media was also hot on the case. However, they only focussed on the scholar himself, criticising that he has let the MOE down. His personal details such as his primary school of Nanyang Primary, secondary school Chinese High and Junior College Hwa Zhong. Little comment was given on MOE part except for an article from public asking MOE what happened.

To me, the official media is over zealots in reporting the juicy story of the person. As far as I know, it has been going on and on over the same information for more than 3 days! What it is doing aims to divert attention away from the MOE. Because if people question the MOE or even the minister, in this case Ng Eng Hen, he will have a hard time answering.

While it does publish a single letter from public today, I would 100% expect an official response from someone of MOE with text book answer, the official media will stop any further write ins from public to create an illusion that the case has been answered and should move on.

This case brings me to another question, and this is about the purpose of the scholarship. I think I have reflected before that scholarship is to help those with capacity in learning and yet lacks the finance. Yet looking at this scholar's back ground, I really wonder, does he need the scholarship to further his study in UK? I am seriously in doubt that he is of a poor family, in fact with his education record, he could well be someone from a well to do family. He would still be studying in University of York even without the scholarship. He has no need for scholarship!

If this is the case, why the scholarship at all? Offcial answer would be to retain talents to work for the Government. But such answer only tells people that working for Government sucks and you need to throw out candies to lure unsuspected prey in!

My sources tells a different stories, these scholars will eventually work in the government agencies with constant job rotations, they will eventually assigned to high posts to oversee operations, become top civil servants, MPs or even ministers. They would not even need to work to get promoted. So if this is the case, so long meritrocracy!

Such scholarships tanted the true purpose which is to help poorer students a better chance to learn. It has become a novelty for those link to the government, a prestidge for fame among peers. How many of the scholars have family links with people of the government? I sense a lack of transparency on the government part on statistics for such distribution. Scholarships are meant for the poor, and it is a shameful thing for a rich person to even think of applying.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Now back to charting. A week has past and STI has one direction, down! Base on the weekly chart, both its indicators are down with divergence, confirming its support for a down trend. I believe we would be seeing a downward movement on the next few weeks. The support I see on weekly basis through its previous high is 3,037 while its 21 weeks moving average supported at 3,077. There are some way to go from here.


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

Things seem different when come to daily chart, although both indicators are down, they have reached the bottom. It is possible for STI to reverse up ward by beginning of next week. But because its higher time frame shows a down trend, this uptrend might be very short lived.

Further to that, the last 2 days of the week have produced what's look like a counter wave. Looking at the larger picture, it would well be a 4th wave. So we should be expecting a 5th on its way. This would mean that a counterwave of B will follow after the completion of this down trend and then followed by a C further down.

So it might really be a good time to sit on the fence at this time.

AUD declining

In contrast to USD, AUD seems to be weakening after much pumping up effort. Its indicators are very persuasive for a down ward thrust, plus this high point seems like a strong resistance when you consider all the past failed effort to break through this range. From what I see now, its resistance is located at around 130.11 and support at 115.011.


Fig 1 AUD versus SGD Weekly Chart

To me, may be the fall of AUD is a good thing, at least I can consider another trip there as I like the lay back lifestyle there.

USD on reversal?

I have not been up-dating much on USD vs SGD lately, partly because it fell through my last perdiction and I was spending some time figuring out what it was doing. Certain the US Government prining of USD has much to do with its further depreciation, leading to the failure in proper forecast of its move not only by me, but quite a few veterans who think that the USD rally is over due.

The other factor that I see the continue plunge of the USD is link to the rising of the indices. Somehow as far as the indices, primarily STI and DJIA is rising, the USD sinks. I can roughly explain the STI and USD link, people dump USD for SGD to invest into the Singapore Stock Market. This is taught by my teacher and I think it still applies. As for USD versus DJIA, my guess is that the US Stock Market is no longer as attractive as others in the world, so even though it rises, it does not attract enough investers to pump up the USD.


Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

Base on the weekly chart, it can be seen that the indicators for USD is at their lows, the tendency for it to reverse now is even higher than before.Further more, it is supported by its positve gradient Gann Grid line. It is however resisted by its present 21 weeks moving average at 13,284 while support of its previous low of 12,814.

Some how, I am thinking that this chart is reversed because I am counting a completion of wave B (3 waves) and a wave C should commence.


Fig 2 USD vs SGD Monthly Chart

To make sure of the reversal tendency , I moved on to the monthly chart, evidently its indicators are also at the bottom and reversing, this makes a stronger support for USD to start rising.

Of course, what's more important is knowing the relationship between USD and the STI index, if it is firm that USD is rising, this would mean STI will likely to fall, and fall hard.

DJIA.....

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I just has a glance at DJIA, the only thing in my mind is "This is bad...."

Its next support level is 10,719.

Another mis-read again?

It is Hari Raya Haji today and my family went for something we have not done for some while, we went to East Coast for breakfast in the morning.

The place was actually quite crowded when we reached there and car parks were full. Luckily we got hold of a parking lot at the road side. But instead of Mac Donald as we originally planned, we went for Burger King instead. For something we have not done for a long time? Its a great way to rejuvenate.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, not so for STI. My last update as I recalled was on Monday, there was a moment I thought of a possbility with STI reversing. It seems unlikely at this moment. It broke through the Gan Grid Apex and went further down.

The question that I should ask myself now is whether I should predict its next move knowing that the last few reads were bad? So is this the reversal I have been waiting for?

My present read? Indicators are heading south, not yet at the bottom. So the present level which borders the previous high as well as the 21 days moving average might not hold. Adding a Fibonacci retracement levels, it should be heading to 61.8% level of 3,201. My guess is that it is going to follow the negative gradient of Gann Grid lines on the way down.

My daughter's birthday

Its my daughter's birthday today and we celebrate at her kindergarden. It is strange that things are so different now. When I was her age, I practically did not know when my birthday was, let alone celebrating at school. I did vaugely recall that I went up the stage at school on my birthday month with a whole lot of other kids, the school just sang Happy Birthday and that's it. Now the class has a party when its someone's birthday.

Another interesting part of my daughter's birthday is that the birthday girl or boy is the one who give presents to everyone on top of contributing the cake. So it is from parents pocket that the presents were bought.

One interesting fact is that Buddhist do not really consider birthday something worth celebrating. Buddhist call the day the Parents Suffering Day. This is true especially for the mother, hours of excruciating pain and risk of death just to give birth to a new life. Seriously it is not really an easy life having children and that is why a lot of people nowadays decide not to have kids.

There is however reward in having kids. One would really enjoy the attachments, the attention seeking of their children. They give you a sense of pureness as a child and interacting with them makes your mind works.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, it is also time to make my mind works. My last two prediction aren't really good, the market have been on the opposite end of my prediction. The thing is that I am reading the chart and can only interprete what the chart tells me. There is never a 100% accuracy, irf there is, I would be a Billionaire right now.

For STI today, both indicators are heading south with exception that RSI seems to have a tendency of reversing. This coincide with the Gann Grid line which is crossing from negative to positive region. In fact, STI is today at the apex. No only that, it is close to the support resulted from the previous high of 3,220.

There is a tendancy that STI is reversing up by tomorrow, its recent down turn is to fill up the gap it has created. If base on the gap measurement, it should be reaching the 23.6% Fibonacci projection resistance of 3,345.

STI on fifth wave

It has been more than a week since I have last touched my charts. I kind of missed it. So I was quite unhappy that I did not manage to get an up-date on the movement.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Today, I am using the weekly chart for my analysis. Frankly speaking, it is hard to tell base on the indicators, Stochastic is heading up while RSI reversing down. I will have to move on to using wave count for this.

With STI breaking previous high, it is quite confirm that it is on the fifth of the fifth wave. The beginning of the fifth wave was an extended first wave. Third wave was straight forward, the second was a complex while 4th a simple for this round. So there will still be some where to go for STI base on the latest development.

Using Fibonacci projection, the probably limit this round is 23.6% projection of 3,410.Its 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 3,068.

Just one week and there are so many changes...

I was virtually travelling the whole of last week. It was an unscheduled event which I needed to travel to Da Nang for a seminar. I started my trip by Monday only to come back by Wednesday. I travelled again to KL by Friday and was only back yesterday.

I was mildly surprise on my return that so much has changed, primarily STI went up! It broke down the head and shoulder formation and went to higher high. So this is the fifth wave! I was expecting a longer period of 4th wave with head and shoulders completing its objective. It seems that the market cannot wait.

The worst thing is that my service provider is broken down again! I was making a few attempts to down load my data but to not avail. Now I am not able to check on the charts till it is well again.*sigh* I would have to call on the service provider again tomorrow to log complaint!!!!