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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

3/16/2011

Nikkei 225 is interesting


Fig 1 Nikkei 225 Weekly Chart

I don't know about any one here, but I find the Nikkei 225 chart to be quite interesting.

Although it has done a record jaw dropping fall of 1,000 points (wow!!!!), it is still at higher low. In fact, the fall has just enable it to complete its minimum objective of the upward wedge. Not only that it is now supported by a support line drawns for the low on 27th Nov 2010.

So the situation there might not be that bad afterall...for the time being.Its present support is 9,046 while resistance at 9,737.

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DJIA, long time no see....

While my blood pressure is under manageable level right now, it nevertheless fluctuates. I am safe in the morning but went past safety level by evening. I guess it must be the work pressure.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

It has been a looooong while since I last looked at DJIA. My last update on this index was somewhere between Dec 2010 and Jan 2011. Both of them reported DJIA heading south. However, it still maintained its position for another 2 months before the reds are in.

Tonight, I am still saying the same thing, DJIA is heading south, and both Stochastic and RSI support this. They are both 1/2 way down. If my count is right, the 5 waves of c is completed and now it should be the beginning of the C wave. Its going to be ugly.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

Okay, this is one scenario. The positive scenario is that on daily basis, it is possible that DJIA is not that ugly. We could be at the 4th of the 3rd of C wave, which means there is a possibility of a 5th of c wave.

What I see is 2 layer of support, one a support line of 11,753 and the other the 21 days moving average at 11,696. It is highly possible that Dow Jones might rebounce upward from here, especially the Stochastic and RSI are at the bottom right now.

Okay, after all these said, it seems like I have placed bet on both side. This is not right, so which side should I bet on? My gut feel tells me that DJIA is just doing a correction and not yet a reversal. There will still be a 4th and a fifth wave coming.

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What a GREAT move....

I am not going to blame myself for abstenance from blogging for quite a while. I was busy, rushing to complete the tasks meant for the coming seminar at Penang by the end of the month.

I am quite busy today first with trying to send the demonstration kits to my colleagues in Thailand and Penang. It took me 1/2 a day to do so because of errors here and there. Then there is this afternoon meeting for the department. What is strange to me all these while is that my boss gets me and my colleague to present to our own people.

It was much later then I realize how much the market dropped, and I have no idea until I saw the charts. So may be it is a good idea not to read my charts too often as it corrupts the BIG picture.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI has fallen much, thanks to Japan's earthquake and Nuclear explosion. In fact, the earthquake didn't do much, it is the Nuclear explosion that gave the killing blow. It is quite rare to see Nikkei fallen by more than 1,000 points, but I have seen STI dropped by 90 points before.

STI has met its minimum object and went further, my prediction came true. It is now still holding onto the negative gradient of the Gann Grid lind but it is coming close to the apex, so its decision time soon, will STI reverse up?

One thing that I laugh about is the comments from the analyst talking about global economical melt down, they even talk about Singapore economy heading for bear market when STI hits 2,700+ level. Even my boss took out an article today detailing how much potential business losses from this earthquake. I won't want to say it up front, but I disagree.

It is not that we will in bear market at 2,700. I am sure we are already in one now considering my daily moving averages have already crossed. In addition, I am seeing this present move from 24th Feb to 9th Mar as the 4th wave, meaning we are in the fifth wave DOWN now. There will be more to come.

But will it be VEY BAD? Let's see, a 23.6% Fibonacci projection downward will lead to around 2,898. I think that will be the end of fifth, if not, 2,853 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci projection. This will complete either the C of a 3 waves pattern or 3rd of the 5 wave pattern.

Economically, a disaster is an economical event. The destruction means the need for replenishment, demand for goods increases especially when the scale of destruction is so great. I would see it as opportunity.

The scary part of course is the US treasury Bonds. 10 years ago, my teacher ever told me that Japan was the biggest buyer.There was this once USA pissed japan off and when it was trying to sell its bonds, they was no buyers, Japan sat on the fence.

If Japan lacks the money to rebuild, it might end up forced to sell the bonds. This will get the US economy to its knees and probably a bear market in USA.

So let's just hope that Japan has enough money.

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3/08/2011

Another low in my life...

I was off reading charts the whole week, I was not in the mood. It seems like when bad things appear, they come in waves.

First I have hypertension and was conned into taking Beta Nicardia, resulting in:

1) pain on the back neck muscle;
2) Weak joints in particular at shoulder area;
3) Lartagidy, lack of energy after lunch;
4) Light headedness, will floating sensation (can't say I hate this because it is like on drugs);
5) Frequent headaches;

The worst effect was when I wanted to stop the medication, I experienced palpitation, with strong and quick heart pump. It took me a week to overcome the withdrawal syndrome. Mean while, I continued to experience the side effect of the medication.

Just last week, I received bad news from home, my grand mother died. While she lived until the age of 99, her last few years on earth was not good, she got dementia, difficulty in walking, put to an old folks home. She has 6 sons and none of them wanted her in. It dawn onto me that both my Grandmothers and my "maternal grandfather" have their end of lives spent in old folks home. Is this the trend nowadays where old folks are classified as useless and non-contributors?

Anyway, I manage to control my hypertension through alternate means, although it still fluctuates, it nevertheless less serious than the time when I was measured by THAT doctor.

I also have rewards on my trip back to Malaysia this round, there are a lot more juicy tales about my Grandmother that I did not know earlier. I also come to believe that my mother has conflict in herself about her feelings about my grand mother. There is a part of her hating her mother and yet there is another part which gave her fond memory.

Both my mother and grand mother shared the same birthday. She told the family during the funeral about this time when she was 9 or 10 years old. It was nighttime and she was helping my grand mother to sew the buttons for customers in bed. They rented a small room and they sheared the room with my 3 uncles. My grand mother said, " if later on the fried kuey Tiao man come, let's buy a pack of char kuey tiao. afterall, it is aour birthday." They waited, but the man never appeared. It was fated that they were never able to celebrate that birthday of theirs.

When my mother told this story, I could sense her disappointment in the story, it was not the missing kuey tiao, but not able to do something common with her mother. I felt a sense of sadness in her because it was a missed opportunity.

I had my fair share of relationship with my grandmother, afterall, she took care of me since I was born. I lived in an unstable environment then, both my parents had to work and there was not one to take care of me permanantly. My grand mother suggested to my mother that she will take care of me and my brothers while she worked. That not only gave me a place to settle down, it also saved my brother from being aborted.

It was unfortunately my life with my grandmother was discontinued at 6 when my mother and grand mother broke ties after an arguement. My grandmother of course has her evil side, but nevetheless, she cared for me. I still remember the few times she took me to see the doctor when I was sick. It was not easy considering we have to take 1 hour of bus just to reach the clinic, doctors then were not a common sight.

I missed my grandmother, that makes me think that I need to treasure my love ones more because all of us are not going to be around forever. One day, we will leave this earth. It will be too late to mend anything by then.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Speaking of STI, it has been up since last Friday and this week, it continues to move north! I won't ask what happened because that is a fundamental question, mostly. Technically speaking, it is time for rebound.

However, my guess is that its northward movement is limited because it is coming to a resistance, I believe relatively strong resistance. It is the neckline of the double top at 3,118. Not only that, there is also 21 weeks moving average at 2,123, 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 3,114.

On a positive end, both Stochastic and RSI are at the bottom and reversed, at the same time Gann Grid gradient is positive. These are indicators of bullishness.

The signals are mixed, which one should I follow? My gut feel is: STI will be going down, still.

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