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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

10/31/2013

The meaning of stability

You know, countries that is "dictatory" in nature always warn its people about the damages they might cause if they choose the opposition. " it will create an unstable system" or "it will lead to stagnation". Singapore is one of such country, Malaysia is another one.

So it is true that once the country turn from single party to a 2 party system will lead to unstable system, economy break down, people into hardship? Our wives will end up being the maid for other countries?

To start with it is not the wives but the husbands, my wife's brother for instance need to find greener pasture in China with almost no opportunity of returning to Singapore. Can you imagine the family separation? How will their child be affected?

The best proof of the performance for a 2-party system is to observe one which just done exactly that. Closest we have is Malaysia, the country's ruling party has lost its 2/3 majority since 2008 and continued to remain so during the 2013 election. Did we see the creation of an unstable system? Well, to say the truth, the ruling party is the one creating havoke and try to destabilise the country, it is the opposition that create the stability by confronting the ruling party on their behavior, in effect, keep them in check.

The few states that land under the governance of the opposition in fact performed much better with revenues and reserves, that is after many years of deficits under the rule of the ruling party. If the ruling party of Singapore is so pro to inducing competition for Singaporeans, they should experience some true competition themselves.


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The chart is in fact Malaysia's KLSE, don't you like it? Its election happened in 2008, and the fall of KLSE was due to an international event. However, it has not tuerned back since with one high after another. In fact it is at a new high right now and the election result which end up representation remain status quo has not even dented the market performance but pushes it to a higher high.


The Singapore STI (yes, I know I said it is no longer reliable barometer for Singapore economy) on the other hand not only failed to reach higher high, it was stagnant since 2009. Even with its recent overwhelming win in the election, it brought no joy to the market. So can I say that the market does not support the political status of Singapore? I think time is the most reliable justification here.

To be honest, if you look at the result of the latest election, PAP has already lost the 2/3 majority, it is the system that it put in place which protect it from a much larger majority of opposition. I am amazed that the ruling party has not changed its spots and continue to act as if they rule Singapore. The members within are still tell people what to do and not doing the right thing themselves.

Chan Chun Seng for instance has recently justifying for not setting poverty line, a good example of some one not only not listening, but expect others to listen to him, how naccissistic can that be? He even hint that he is the next Prime Minister. I think he needs to look at the mirror first as ask himself if he has the leadership quality, that is to listen?

In my opinion, Singapore is not a stable system at the moment, it is afterall a single party system. When this party fail and it is in the process, there is no alternative. The governing party is not doing Singapore a favour by continue to implement strategy to ensure it in power. They are failing Singapore.

Placing accountability on SGX....

There have been many articles on some of the internet that put the blame on SGX for its worse than bad management of its control on the market speculative behavior and investigation of possible market manipulation.Seriously who won't?

In the first place, is it not because of it's declaration that Asiason, Blumont as signatory counters then releasing them to the mercy of the market that led to the tumbling of these counters? I mean losing 90% of their values is considered serious damage to those holding these counters.

The question is: Why SGX only chose to act when these counters reached the peak? Don't they know that by this time, the market manipulator (if there is one) would have been gone long time ago? Don't they know that those who are still inside would most probably be those who are lured in by the up-surge caused by the manipulator(s)? I got a feeling here that SGX certainly do not understand the market and complacent in its duty, reacting to the situation only when it is too late and the lack of understanding of the consequences of their action, yet they want to play God!

I still remember that more than once, SGX changed the components of STI, replacing weak performing counters with stronger ones, just to make STI to look good. Have any other world leader do that? When was Dow Jones last change its components? When did FTSE, DAX and All Ordinary Index replace weaker components for stronger ones?It is only uniquely Singapore, and for what?

I am sure it all have to do with not Government policy, but to create an illusion of Government performance by show casing a strong index performance, thereby indicating economy performance. I still remember many years ago, the index rallied the day after Singapore election, LKY was quick to say that the market supported their returning of power.

It is no wonder that even with so many counters fdast becoming penny counters, the index is at a high of above 3,000 mark. STI as I see it, can no longer be used to gauge the performance of the economy.

The question remains for those who claim that it is wrong for SGX to be both player and regulator: If not SGX then who? Should MAS be stepping in to regulate instead? I am sure they are as suck as SGX. I seriously doubt that those experts inside with qualification such as masters or phds know the market behavior at all, they only think they know and they are sure of it.

To me, some one from SGX has to resign to demonstrate accountability of the event. Who is responsible for monitoring the market behavior, who executed the desasterous operation? Heads have to roll. But I am sure that the investigation will end up claiming system inadequacy instead of human responsibility. The thing is that do they know that it is exactly such behavior that lead to the decline of Singapore?

10/28/2013

China, the last of the BRIC

So I am now into my last installment of the BRIC, China. Consider that I am going to China next month for company training.

I believe I have written about the Shanghai Composite index and noted that it was at the bottom. I remember the reason I wrote about it is because the world is saying the index was high at that time. It was in 2011 that I still have up-date on the index.



It seems like after many years, the index not only maintain a "low" profile, it went back down. Imagine a 4 years ordeal of down trend. I am surprise that China still maintain a year on year growth in its economy.

However, over the 4 years, it is forming a downward wedge. This would lead to an eventual up-trend, with the wedge, it will reach 3,400.

So among the 4 countries, it seems that China is the only country with potential for up-ward growth.

10/25/2013

India

I have done Brazil, I have done Russia, so naturally India should be next on BRIC.

I have been to India a few times. Being a Buddhist, I have much respect to India's dedication to it development in area of spirituality. Unfrotunately, their indepth nurturing of spirituality is also their undoing for the progress of their country.

I have visited many companies in India. Regardless of New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune or even Bangalore, I have never failed to notice the portrait of Hindu Deities either in picture or statues. Hinduism spreads to every walks of life in India, together with it, the level of content of its people on their social hirarchy.

Even when the caste system has been abolished, it is still very much alive, not only in India, even for those who already migrated oversea. How many cases of honour killings have we witnessed so far in the civilised world today? And those on the hit list are actually either coerced or tracked down and murdered. For some reason the family members's need to feel honoured is more than the respect for life itself.

India was recently on the news as its currency was on the way down when compared to USD. So one may assume that the India's economy would be on the down trend.

But when looking at the chart, surprise, surprise! This index actually did much better than many others such as Hong Kong and Singapore! Not only it it not having its B wave at the 1/2 way mark, it retraced up to the peak of 2008, tested this level not only once but twice!

For the moment, I still can't see a concrete pattern formation, I would only see a potential double top or recetangle. With only 1 peak and bottom between 2010 till now, it is not sufficient to determine its direction. By most, I will only to do a wave count and in my opinion, it is also about time to descent. But before that it may climb above 21,228.

Seems like India's market is much more robust. Probably because of the economy is self sustainable with the demand of a huge population.

10/24/2013

Russia.....

Today we are going to Russia. I have not been to Russia, and many years ago a department of my company has interest in developing Russia and they sent a guy there to visit customers.I don't think it worked out as the guy soon resigned, any way he is more of the director of IT than a sales or marketing.
The one impression I have with Russia is that its hotel is very expensive, and staggering price of USD400/-. I think this is more expensive than India's 5 stars. This has something to do with Russian Mafia infiltration into almost all pockets of life in the country.It is a sad thing, years of Monarch oppression, followed by Communist governance. There was only a small window of democracy which happened to be led by an idiot Alcoholic Yelsin. And now dictatorship of Putin. People in Russia certainly having a hard time. So it is a wonder that one would think this country worth investing. Just look at  BP petrol incident, there is no integrity with Communist dictator.
 
Looking at the chart, this counter is like many other chart, on counter wave movment. With A and B completed, it is not on the C wave down. With A on a 5-wave pattern, C can be a 3-wave.Most recent pattern 2011 till now is a decending triangle, which is the b wave. If the reading is right with measurement of triangle, the objective will lead the index to sub 1,000.
 
So is BRIC still on or not?

10/23/2013

Brazil Bovespa Index

A few years ago, there emerged the prophesy of the BRIC, it symbolised the 4 major emerging markets namely Brazil, Russia, India and China. Legend has it that these 4 countries are of highest potential for future growth, with strong resources and/or large population. At one point, the 4 countries even met and discussed about not using USD as the currency for business transaction. This would in effect removed USD as the common currency for forex.

One thing that I wonder is, why these 4 countries? First of all, they are all highly corrupted to the core. Secondly, within the skin deep rich exterior, there is huge disparity in wealth distribution. The poor are still getting nowhere and the few riches getting even richer. The point is, how long can these countries last? To me it is only time when anarchy happens.


Today, I am looking at Brazil's Bevespa Index.  On the first look, it seems to be in progress of a top formation, in fact, it is more like a double top. On second look, there is an addition descending triangle to support the down trust. Indeed, the index came down.

There is only one problem, the index has recently broken the neckline and went back up, not only that, it also went above the moving average. The original objectively of 36,000 may not valid any more.

So what is happening? If we go back to wave counting, after the descent of 2008-2009 which should symbolise A wave, I see a wierd phenomenon of wave A again in 2009, this time it went up-ward. It follows by a long period of B wave between 2011-2013. So it should be doing an up-ward C right now.

Another way of looking at this is that 2008-2009 is the A wave, with 2009 up-wave a B and C formed from 2009 till 2013. Bovespa have completed 4th wave and on its way to 5th right now. The one thing that support this is the fact that there is a triangle in this congestion.

10/22/2013

Spain IBEX 35 Index

If I recall correctly it was around 2010 to 2011 which we saw the Europe Crisis. So it interests me to actually look at Spain which was one of the potential country in Europe that might fall.

So US' crisis during 2008-2009 has affected Spain a lot as can be seen from the down trend of 2008-2009. It is funny that only when the index is at the bottom of the chart that each economy starts to feel the pinch, but not during the process of the plunge.  In fact the effect of the plunge was only felt by the late 2009, by which time the index was recovering (at its peak at the time).

So what is happening to Spain's IBEX 25 index now? The arguement is presently weak but it is roughly a reverse head and shoulde, with  the index broken the neckline up-ward. If this is true, the objective of this index would be around 11,609.

I am not sure of the wave count though, it seems that A was completed by early 2009 while B by early 2011.and possible complete of C by mid 2012. The wave count so far tally except that I do not see a 5-wave pattern on either A or C wave. So a change of plan which I have to label the whole wave from 2009 till now is a very large B, with C pending. Well at least from mid 2012 till now looks more like a 3-wave pattern.

So what would happen if I change to a swing move? the objective will lead to 10,464, lower than the reverse head and shoulder's objective. Anyway, there will be a resistance at 11,189.

10/19/2013

Germany DAX Index

I thought I have written about Germany DAX index before. But tracking back the articles, apparently I have not.

I think it is because I could not properly read DAX earlier and unable to deduce where it might be going. However, when I looked at this index again, there seems to be something I have missed out.


To start with, DAX have reached a new height, which makes it difficult for me to determine which wave we are looking at. If it is a counter ware, it certainly looks strange to have a new height. However, the zig zag movement from 2009 till now looks more like a B wave of a counter wave. While slightly uncommon, it is possible to have the B wave higher than A.

Another thing that I saw was a tapering behavior of the index. If you observe the orange envelop, it clearly shows the tapering effect, which establish the wedge formation. This is more like one of the 5th wave behavior.

If this is true, base on present measurement, 6,600 is a possibility.Prior to that there might still be a chance for this index to go higher.

10/17/2013

Australia All Ordinary Index

The wonder of my new service provider's data base is that it gives me access to the world's indices. I even have the index for Isreal!

Anyway, it is better to look at some indices closer to my location. So Australia should be one that I might be interested in.

I don't know, Australia All Ordinary Index is like many others in the B of the counter waves. The A wave is a 3-wave pattern.

If I consider this a swing move, it should be going to 1,381. I am also looking at a very light wedge so it looks quite firm that The All Ordinary Index would be climbing downward. It is afterall at the upper envelop of the wedge.

10/16/2013

Tye Soon Double Bottom broke down

I was scanning my charts today and came across Tye Soon. A look at the chart and I see a sorry state of the counter.


Looking at the complete chart, you can observe a double bottom with minimum objective of SGD0.377. At the same time, you will see in the recent movement that the chart violated the neckline.



This seems to define the end of its bull and reversing. In fact, the counter has broken the up-ward trend line, broke the neckline and to me it is possible of forming a head and shoulder.

Personally I would think that this counter will still be moving up in the short term as it could be forming the right shoulder. So I would expect the this counter to move to around 0.30 before going down again.

However, considering that this counter has been bottom forming since 2000. I find it very ugly to fail its double bottom.

10/13/2013

ST Mid Cap

How should I start with this index? The fact that I am seeing continuously counter waves? This constitute to a major A, B and C waves with exception that A wave is up-ward. Normal practice should be a downward A, so is this counter a on more major counter wave and that the A, B and C is only a much larger B?
 
 
If my read is correct, ST Mid Cap should be on continuation downward to complete its minor c. In a swing move measurement, the minimum objective should be 670.
 
On a bigger move, it is possible that the index is forming a double top with neckline @ 566. If this come through, it will only mean that it will retrace all the way back to below 300, with support at 291.
 
 

ST Technology Index re-visit

I have earlier done a read on ST Technology index. I have mentioned that the advance is blocked and should be heading south.



I did a revision on the ST Technology today, I have written that it would be reversing, I have no idea how serious it would be. ST Technology was really affected by the sell down the last 2 weeks. It shot all the way down. If I consider the objective of the earlier double top, the index minimum target is 448. However, it went all the way to 331. It reached one of the lower support line. I am not sure if this level will support the index or will it fall further, the next level is 270.

Seems like ST Technology is not doing that well......

10/11/2013

Mermaid Maritime?

After a few years of abstenance from the stock market, I am amazed to see very interesting companies' name. Mermaid Maritime is one of them. Mermaid?

Apparently this company was first listed in 2007, the year after I stopped my activites. Unfortunately, it met with the market downturn and have not recover to its highest peak.

Another interesting phenomenon evidence on this chart is that it has created a double bottom between early 2011 till end 2012. OIne would expect a 2 years base building should be good enough for a reversal signal, but it has to fail!

I took notice of this counter today when it was highlighted on the top active list. This counter broke the neckline and retraced back down and now it is testing the neckline again and for this week it tried penetrating upward but stopped by the neckline.

It seems to me that the neck line is strong enough to defend its position. But I think for the next 2 weeks, Mermaid should be able to break this resistance to move upward. However, I think the window it has is the next 2 weeks as the RSI has escalated above 50%., next 2 weeks should bring it up to the top mark and ready for a reversal.

10/09/2013

Tat Hong

Tat Hong was one of my earlier romance. In fact I was at this stock between 2004 till 2006, until the birth of my son. Looking back from now, if I have carried this counter till 2008, I would have been at least 2 times richer in this investment.



I am looking at this counter again as my homework. Looking at the pattern, it follows the giant 3 counter-wave pattern with completion of A by end 2008 followed by B ending early 2013. It should now be executing C.

If my judgement is correct, C should be a 5-wave pattern, and presently in midst of the third wave. I figure we should at least be visiting the 0.365 low of year 2008 by the end of the C wave.

SGD might be falling soon

I am looking at SGDUSD chart and I can't help but to noticed a recent gap-up followed by a stagnation.

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDUSD%3DX#symbol=;range=3m;compare=;indicator=bollinger+rsi+stochasticslow+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

I can't attach the chart right here at this moment but it can be downloaded from the web-page above.

This seems to be a sign of exhaustion and eventually leading to a gap down. So far the indicators are very toppish and should be moving downward soon, so we would probably expect a downturn.

10/08/2013

Monday's blood bath

The last 2 trading days have been a blood bath on the penny stocks. The Singapore market started its free fall since Friday and it lasted for 2 days, but the damage is severe enough.

Base on what I read from http://www.Tremeritus.com. It started with SGX investigating into Blumont's ascension, coupled with roumors that the Singapore Monetary Authority investigating Asiason on its climb to a SGD2.00 stock. Regardless if 2nd is true, what SGX did next is the needle that break the camel's back. They make sure that anyone who want to buy the 3 questionable stocks (Blumont, Asiason & LionGold) (after a free fall on Friday) need to folk up cash up-front. While the action to stop the shot selling is useful, the "cash up-front" move certainly stop any potential funding to these counters and therefore signing the death warrant for the holders of the stocks.

The move has more devastating effect, it shakes the confidence of the market. which causes the whole markeing into free fall.

My question is: Do SGX know what they are doing? Do they not know that it is natural for stocks to have such fluctuations? I have in the past many times seen counters moving from SGD0.16 to SGD1.50 within a year's time span. It is not once but many times. Are their actions also the cause of hype-stagnation of the Singapore stock market?

10/02/2013

US Government shut down, is the market on Republican side?

I think USA is a very interesting country, there are 3 components in the Government system with the President, Congress and Senate. Even with only 2 parties, check and balance can be achieved with one party only need to control one of the components.The only way to make sure a law or legislation is passed is to negotiate and compromise between parties. Such move can ensure short coming of the bill is flushed out, thereby benefiting to the people. However, what if negotiation and compromise is not possible?

Such is the case with US now with Congress blocking the spending bill to stop Obamacare, leading to a shut down of the Government system. I do not know and understand much about how it works, and based on inputs from CNN, it started with Obamacare. A group of Republican called themselves Tea Party opposed to the Obamacare and wanted to shut it down. So a guy called Meadow suggested to tie Obamacare to a spending bill for the Government agency, this in turn force the Democrates to have remove Obamacare or risk a Government shut down.

It seems like the strategy back fired, Democrates won't budge and the bill not passed, resulting in what's happening today. So far this is the best I can understand of the situation in USA politics right now.

Anyway, I am not a politician and know less about how politics works, that is why even in analysis I choose to look at pictures rather than trying to understand past earnings and what the implications are, yep! I suck at Fundamentals.

So is the market supporting Republicans? I wanted to write this article because I was talking to my father and he was saying that the stock markets are going up. However, if you look at the chart right now on weekly basis. You will realise that a shooting star has already been formed 2 weeks ago and Dow Jones has descended since last week.Further more, both RSI and Stochastics are on down trend right now, I think it is little chance that the market supports the move made by Republicans.

It is such a pity because the market has been on general up-trend all these while indicating recovery for US economy.

The index is presently supported by its 21 days moving average. As I have last writen, it was in a reverse triangle and I am amazed that the timing of this event coincide with Dow Jones touching the triangle envelop. I think it is quite likely that a small head and shoulder will be formed to justify for its down trend, probably to 13,500.

10/01/2013

City Development

I have decided to write about City Development today because there was a thin line of remance between us. It was 1998 that I started playing the stock market and I happened to spot on City Development, it was then SGD5.00. Imagine if I have bought this counter then and kept it, my money would be doubled by now.

I remember I saw City Development at SGD5.00, there was a flag pointing to SGD5.50. I did not know what came over me, I decided to go into this counter for a SGD500 profit. I entered in the morning and it took the counter until 3:00PM to reach SGD3.45. By 4:30PM, many rushed in to cover their position and shot the counter back down to SGD5.00. I got out with losing on the commission. Do you know the irony of the whole thing? It went all the way up to even beyond SGD5.50 the next day.

One thing I have learned in this lesson is that if you cannot carry the counter, don't do naked shot.

Anyway, back to this counter now. Again, it looks like a multi-year counter wave with completion of A. Mind you, A is a 5-wave pattern, so C should be a 3-wave. Subsequent move is turning into a triangle With the completion of C, we should see an up-ward thrust after. It is also possible that the triangle will trigger a 5-wave (a,b,c,d,e).

No matter what, City Development should be heading north.Measurement? It is still inside a congestion zone and we will have to wait for break out.

Olam....

Today's home work is Olam.
 
This counter was the talk of the town a few months ago, I guess it has something to do with Temasek investment.
My arguement on this counter is relatively weak. Again on theoverview, it looks to me in counter wave period, The interesting part is that this counter has already completed B wave and is in the process of C. The funny part is that I do not see a 5-wave pattern on C. This should be the case as A is a 3-wave pattern, B is no question a 3-wave, and therefore C should be 5.
Another thing with the chart is that the reversal somehow show a double top formation. But it is difficult to substantiate. If the formation holds, then the counter has not yet seen bottom. It is likely to hit sub SGD1.00.