Google
 
Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

3/31/2015

Indeterminant of SGD MYR

I have a chat with my colleague today and he got to know that I do charting. So he asked me to help take a look at SGD MYR since he travels back to Malaysia every weekend.

I have actually looked at MYR before but it was difficult to determine its direction. I can only vaguely sense some kind of rectangles which is incomplete. So I am taking a more serious look tonight.
Fig 1 SGD MYR Daily Chart

The data base only have data up till 2009, I would first have to use daily chart instead of weekly which see a higher time frame.

From the chart I might see 2 rectangles, 1 from 2013-2014, the other is more recent started by end last year and to me is still incomplete. The earlier rectangle demonstrated an objective of MYR2.75 and the latest rectangle while incomplete might fetch a target of MYR2.81.

That however have to depend of the pattern formation. There are still 2 possibilities at the moment, if break the upper resistance, it will be MYR2.81, but breaking the lower support line however, will lead to either double or triple bottom, this would mean objective of MYR2.52.

The indicators are a little confusing at this moment, my bet is further up trend since the earlier objective is yet to be met.

3/28/2015

Uncertainty about BPD

I was looking a USD vs British pound and I am uncertain abou this counter.


Fig 1 USD BPD
 
When compared to USD, the chart is a little confusing. I think the only way I can make sense out of this is by using wave count. The question is that I only have data as far back as 2003. What I can see is a series of 3-wave patterns. For the time being, it should be doing the C wave. However, I am seeing divergence on the indicators, and I believe BPD is going to strengthen again. It is presently hovering at its resistance of 0.675 with formation of flag. There may be 1 more leg up before trending downward.



Fig 2 SGD BPD Monthly chart

Moving towards SGD BPD monthly chart, there are a lot more clarty. A double top formation of which objective is met and it is much possible a bottom formation in progress.

It seems like BPD is poise for strengthening.   

Interesting bhavior wth SGD HKD relationship

I was going though the  currency against SGD and found SGD HKD to be interesting.

Fig 1 SGD HKD weekly chart

In this chart,  I am seeing a double top with objective to HKD5.20. Further more, a secondary confirmation with a symmetrical triangle with objective HKD5.67 (met).

However, the indicators are at the bottom with serious considering for a rebound. I believe this counter will reverse and hit HKD5.90 in the shot run before descending further to HKD5.20.

3/26/2015

OSIM 1/2 way down

I have bought OSIM in the past and I have forgot what caused me to look into this couter. It was probably ... I really don't know, but definitely some one mentioned it.

So after many years, I am back to look at this counter a see how it is doing.



A look at the chart however, it does ot look good. Although there is no reversal pattern (unless we consider a small double top there), it started with a 3-wave pattern and competed A, it is now into B which I believe is a triangle, the breaking out will lead to C. So far the measurement says that it should be going to around SGD1.30.

The chart is supported by a trendline stretching from 2009 but is is presently being tested twice already, I would assume it breaks this trendline by next week.

I am also adding in the Fibonacci Arc. It seems that the counter is on the borderline of one of such arc, whih it was supported.

Anyway, doe not look good.

3/25/2015

Wilmar International

I aw this counter from the email my broker sent a few days ago and it mademe curious about its chart. I have not read the content of the email but decided to take a look anyway.


Fig 1 Wilmar Weekly Chart

The counter certainly does not lok promising. First a double top from 2009 to 2011, of course the chart alredy met its minimum objective and from the looks of it then, a bottom formation is in progress.

It hoever started to change, instead an intended double bottom, it has presently forming a descending triangle, yet to break out. From the indicators, it does not look good at all. We should be seeing 2.35 from this counter if break out downward.

EUR SGD Weekly

I am presently working in a German company, therefore, EUR is definitely one currency I am interested in.

Fig 1 EUR SGD Weekly Chart

Again taking a 10-15 years chart data it is clear of a reversal due to double top. Mind you the minimum objective of the double top is completed. It is officially on a down trend. The question is: How much further is it going?

Certainly we are still not seeing a  bottom formation, which likely to be flat, chart moving side way. The fact that it it going further south. So I am testing out with Gann Fan line. Plus performing a wave count, it seems that it should be doing the final E wave of the 5wave down. However, I think it may not seize until it hits the 23.6%, which is around SGD1.34 mark.

So for the first time, I would find things in Munich to be cheap! For the moment, that is the furthest I can estimate for EUR.

What's happening in Australia?

I have just bought the data package for future yesterday and it was a blast. Compare to the Singapore stock market, it is definitely more vibrant.

Since 2 to 3 weeks ago, I have started tracking currency through Yahoo.com's charts. Not well equipped but at least with the basic. It was then that I have in mind that we should visit Australia this year (my family and I), reason is that AUD has dropped a lot against SGD.

So now with the chart I can even reveal more of AUD SGD.

Fig 1 AUD SGD Weekly Chart
 
At first sight is a 15-year length chart which shows 2 double tops, one completed its minimum objective and a second on its way. In between was a quick recovery. In fact it is revisiting SGD0.90.
 
Base on this chart, if I am to go to Australia, I woul choose the time when it is at this range.
 
However, the sharp drop and recovery caught my interest and a loaded a much longer time frame.


Fig 2 AUD SGD Weekly (zoomed out)

At this point, AUD certainly looks much uglier. with the sharp action during 2008-2009, it gives me a feeling that the chart is making some sort of a top formation (double top) and will continue its down trend. If the measurement is correct, it is going to SGD0.46. So may be it is by then that I should be visiting AUD? 

Whether this will happen, SGD0.90 is a very important level as it is a make or break situation for AUD. I think the indicators are helping to some extend, there are divergence against the drop and I think there will be a short term rise, but in longer term, it will continue the plunge. That is my opinion of course.

But the question in my mind is: What is happening in Australia? Is there an economic problem?

3/24/2015

A little (too little) to late for Japanese Yeninvestment

I have been watching the development of Japanese Yen, that is until I have changed my work when I started spending time on my new career path. Well, its a bad choice when come to Japanese Yen. 
 
Fig 1 JPY SGD weekly chart

JPY broke through its double top neck lie by 2013 and has been descending since. If I have bee watching, I would have been into JPY since then, a pity.

I actually do not know much as to where it intends to go next. I have achieved its minimum objective, but the oving averages are keeping their distances. There might probably be a little more down side to this.

USD going to be more than EUR 1.00

This would be something we have not seen for a long time.

Fig 1 USD EUR Weekly Chart

I don't really find any data prior to 2003 but since that time, EUR has never been at par with the USD. In fact USD has fallen over and over again to a bottom of EUR0.65 or so by 2008. So what had happened?

A double double bottom make a huge double bottom with time span of 9 years!(?) The break out happened beginning this year and the measurement based on the Tsunami size double bottom is EUR1.06. IF that happens, it would be unpresidented as for the first time USD is larger than EUR.

But wait, the indiators are at the peak, meaning a retracement is in order. I suspect it willhead back to EUR0.85 before continuing its journey to 1.06.

What will happen next?   Well, mostprobably my teacher would have the answer.

USD SGD

Okay, let's do a short and sweet one.

CI have been looking forward to this move for a long time with many misjudgement. I doubt that I would be wrong this round.


Fig 1 USD SGD weekly chart

This, my dear friend is the USD SGD chart. I once thought that it is reversing at SGD1.4+ level and real unfortunate that it went further down.

Since 2011 till beginning 2015, it formed a double bottom with objective of USD1.44. I estimated 2 weeks ago that it will retrace back from SGD1.40 (a triangle objective). It failed to reach SGD1.40 and retracing back to SGD1.36. I am now thinking that it would go further down to SGD1.32 which I the neck line of the double bottom. This before going back up to SGD1.44.

3/17/2015

OCBC Divergence

I think I have started my blogs with " its been a while..." for quite a few times now, but it has ben a while.

I was really busy with my work, with a huge organization with international link up, it became very political. Anyway, its about charts for this blog and nothing else.

Sorry to say that I am not bringing good news to re-start my blog. I just subscribed to reuters data link from Metastock. Quite expensive but this time I have Asian counters.

One of the first look are the banks, and I checked on OCBC. It is not looking good.






Fig 1 OCBC monthly chart

The chart above is the monthly chart, the reason I chose monthly is because there is a show of divergence on the weekly chart (below). On the monthly chart, already the second peak @ 2015 is lower than that of first (2013). Further more, the RSI and Stochastic are turning.


Fig 2 OCBC weekly chart

On a weekly basis the divergence is more obvious. As the chart continue to rise, the Stochastic ad RSI already descending. I believe it is creating the 2nd peak of a double top formation. If this is true, minimum objective is SGD6.60. The neck line support at this moment is SGD8.78.

The trend line on the chart is quite prudent as it has been tested a few times. It started from 14th March 2009. So the breaking of this trendline is significant.