This is interesting

 

Fig 1 USD EUR Weekly

What happening here on USD-EUR weekly is a clear correction. While the chart shown a mild retracement, the indicators went from top to bottom, and they are now reversing.

This will support a reversal of USD EUR upward and continue with its journey. I can't wait to tell my colleague (who did not believe me), " I told you so..."

Seriously let's not be too euphoric on this. There may still be error in he reading. For one, we have not really seen a confirmation on the chart of reversal up-ward. Anyway, I am still bullish of EUR trending towards sub- USD1.

"b" wave for SGD USD?

Fig 1 SGD USD Weekly Chart

I haven't been looking at the chart for say 3 weeks, seems like once I stop, there is a difficulty in picking it up again. Took me quite some effort to re-open the metastock, I think his is partially because I fear I might get a shock from what I see. Well, not a lot of shock, but some puzzle here.

I have earlier joy for the re-bounce of the SGD USD, especially it demonstrated a reversal "here white soldiers" (sort of). I am a little surprise with almost a full retracement of this move.

Going through the move from March to early May this year, I can roughly see a 3-wave move. So the logic of the next stage of continuity is an up-ward move. with such retracement it gives me a feeling that the earlier move a only an "a" wave of  a 3-wave movement.

If this is true then it is only 1/2 way down. In such case, a complete move might lead to SGD USD heading towards 1.27.

Alternatively, it is possible that this is only a 2nd wave of a 5-wave movement. Then the prospect of SGD1.45 for USD1 is in sight.

The indictors at present is unclear since they are at 1/2 way mark and possibly not a clear indication of the chart direction. Hence there is a need for closer monitoring.

Spectacular fireworks in Malaysia (not for the better)

I am not sure if this this on International news but it is definitely buzzling for every Malaysian.

There was supposed to be a highly anticipated event yesterday when the UMNO Prime Minister Najib was supposed to attend a "nothing to hide" forum with a no-hold-bar talk with NGO. Much anticipated but he was a no show.

For some reason, I was not surprised with this since I have never regard him man enough to do so. Ever since he took office, there is not a single instance where he show any spine in standing up to answer the lots of questions about his administration, most importantly, who actually runs the Government? Many including me have foregone conclusion that the real prime minister is Rosmah, Najib as I can see is more of a hen peck husband.

It is really a wonder why the people in UMNO maintain their support to him? My guess must be that he does not know how or even bother to control hi people and it is their last ditch attempt to dig the last gold out of Malaysia.

The worst is that Mahathir took the podium and half way into his speech which is really damaging to Najib's credibility, he was stopped, sighting security reason. In actual fact, some one does not want him to speak up.

As it turns out, a "nothing to hide" talk with NGOs ends up with an "everything to hide" event. Lots of reason were given for Najib's non-appearance ranging from "he was leaving his house when IGP called for the cancellation" to "it was not a peaceful discussion". Seriously, the only reason I see is that he chicken out.

Anyway, the fire works is not about Najib but I want to talk about SGD MYR. I have blogged a few times on this counter a few times, with past blog mentioned of a minimum objective of MYR2.75 to the most recent one when I observed weakness in the leading indicators.

So what happened to MYR lately? Well, for a start it reached the minimum objective of MYR2.75 and the weakness observed on the indicators have still not been reversed.

Fig 1 SGD MYR Weekly chart

If one analyse the chart, he will note that with a higher high on MYR (meaning weaker), it did not translate to a higher high on the indicators. This I would see to be troubling. In fact, The RSI has been showing divergence since end 2014.

So the question is, "where is it going now?"

since the weekly chart is on a higher time line, let's go lower.

 Fig 2 SGD MYR Daily chart

Between April till end of May 2015, a triangle was formed and broke out going up-wards. and based on the triangle measurement, we should be seeing a further high since the MYR has not reached its minimum objective of MYR2.76.

The thing is that the indicators seen here are pretty toppish and I figure that there may be a mild retracement of MYR before shooting towards its final destination of MYR2.76 per SGD.

For some reason, Najib's no show at the event seems to help strengthen MYR a little since it ended lower, but nope, no shooting star.