The Singapore Stock Market

Its been a while....

2011-07-06T23:16:00.002+08:00

As the title said, it has been a while since I have done any up-dates on my blog. As I have mentioned in my last blog or so, I was on 2 personal projects since March. Well, one succeeded, while the other one still in progress.

So what have I been up to? The one still in progress is my fight against Hypertension. While I am able to maintain the pressure to some extend, it is not cxonsistent, just a meal of increased salt level and I back to starting point. Lately, I am on Micardis, which is another medication for Hypertension. So far noticibly there are much less side effects, unlike the Beta Nicardia that I have taken earlier. I am still aiming to go without medication in the end, this project would however need to be on hold for a while because of my the other project.

The project that I have succeeded is a job change. My last job is really a living hell. Trust my words, imagine a boss with no no calibre yet trying to dictate your strategy, coming out with conflicting directions ( and seriously don't know what he is doing). This is enough motivation for me to push myself to leave my company of 11 years.

Considering a man of 44 years old in Singapore it would be doubly hard to find better outlet in career. It is a miracle indeed to manage finding one in record time of 2 months, inclusive of interviews, a total of 3 months. The set back of the job is the need for regular travelling.

Not that I hate it, I always want to make sure my travel is fruitful, I plan all my trips and play through my mind what I want to achieve at the end. Planning is always very important for business trip because many things can go wrong. For instance, I once went on a trip to Penang with a target of 5 customers to visit, and what do you know? The sales who should be bringing me around met an accident on Penang bridge, with me in the car! Another time, the visit coincided with an adhod lunch of the branch office and I had 2 hours shorter to complete my tasks.

I love oversea trips not because you get to see the world, but because I get a bigger playing field, and in line of sales and marketing, the larger the territory, the more options you can expand to and the easier for you to grow. Of course the down side is that you get cultural clashes.

India for instance would always want everything from you, then want it very cheap, best you give them free.

Thai on the other hand would leave you sitting there clueless while they speak to your sales in Thais.

Malaysia? When you see datoks, you can just strike off this customers. They are more likely to try their luck on government project funds without yeilding anything.

Vietnam has no standard in what they ask for. For instance, the way they test the quality of acuistic is by the ear, not base on any standard specification. So even if you show them test data, it will not valid because they are not hearing what they want.

The challenge is to get business from all these people. That is why I am into psychology as well, sort of! You get to compartmentalise people into standard categories and you are more observant on human behaviour. However they act, there is motives, the more important part is to be able to read the motive.

I have not been reading charts for a while, partly because my subscription lapse, partly due to my need to settle down on my new job first. Probably when I re-suscribe the data, I will want to include Malaysia counters on my watch list as well. But it will be another 2 months later.

Chiam See Tong

2011-05-01T10:37:00.001+08:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvMn27ZR9CA

I was following up on recent development of SPP in the election, and it pains me to see Chiam See Tong making his speech both on the political podcast and his rally.

Under normal circumstances, one would really retires for his own health when a stroke strikes. But not, he fights on. Even with his frail state, he want to chase after the PAP for them to hold accountability.

What is his up-most concern, certainly death is the least of his worries. I remember watching his political podcast during 2006. He told the people that Singapore is in danger of losing the opposition and it is crucial to make sure opposition voted into the parliament.

His up-most concern is the people of Singapore, he wants to make sure that they are taken care of, that there is enough voice in parliament to let people knows about their problems, that there is enough man power to make sure Singapore is properly run.

So what happened the last round? The people of Singapore failed him, they failed to increase the number of opposition in parliament and therefore screwed for another 5 years. They are too concern about their own HDB (theirs?) not taken care of, no one painting the blocks, the lifts not up-graded. Such micro greeds blind them of the macro danger instill for them. They have been aiming at the tree but miss the forest.

Chiam See Tong is running for the last leg of his race, he knows that. His only wish is to see more opposition to safeguard Singapore's interest. The point is: will the people fail him one more time?

What is a freak election?

2011-04-29T22:12:00.004+08:00

I have not been blogging for while and I have not been reading my charts. That is because I am on 2 personal projects and I am quite preoccupied to get some result. I am still half way there right now and I figure I will write about it when I succeed.

Anyway, the topic for today is Freak Election. The election, or described by the forumers, Erection (that goes to show how much the locals despise the validity of Election) is coming and on 7th May 2011, Singaporeans will decide which party they want to be the next government.

Even before the parliament is dissolved, ministers started to become more vocal and warned people about reckless voting and the possibility of freak election. They warned of serious consequences such as economical failure, property devaluation and so on.

What exactly is a freak election? If according to the ruling party, anything that lead to a change in government is a freak election. However, this confuse me, if such definition fits the profile of freak election, then there are a lot of countries lately having freak election, such as Japan, Great Britain, and US definitely having a lot of freak elections.

The only way to define a freak election can only be achieved using a mathematical methology.We have to depend on probability.

In ideal case, the proportion of population support to a certain party will have the same proportion of candidates representing the people in Parliament. For instance, if you have 60% of population supporting a party, there will be 60% of MPs from the same party going to parliament.

Science teach us about non-ideal case of reality.So in reality, we will not have exactly the same proportion of MPs versus porpulation support. This is due to the random distribution of supporter in each constinuency. Even so, the difference in proportion should be relatively close. For example, you may have 60% of population supporting a single party, and ending up with probably 65% of MPs coming from the sample party going into parliament. Such relationship holds even in countries such as Zimbabwe, Iraq (during Sadam Hussen where 99% voted for him and 100% of MPs from his party).

If we are to choose a distribution system to represent the difference in proportion, say a Normal Distribution or the bell curve. The probability of a 60% support giving a 60% representation would be high. The the larger the difference between the two, the lower the probability.

If you are to define a freak event, it means that this thing should not happen. If we translate to probability, we would referring to an event of hyper low probability, such as the horse with the least chance of winning the race wins.

Therefore in the event of an election, a freak election can only means a 66.6% support for a single praty resulting in 97.6% of MPs (82/84) represented by the same party in parliament. To a mathematician, what is the probability that such event can happen? I would say it is at the far end of the normal distribution or bell curve. Such behaviour is unnatural and I can only said is man made and engineered to ensure the distribution in every consittuencies having same proportion of voters for each parties.

Yet it is only in Singapore that such freak election happens, not only that, it happens so often that it is a norm while a normal election result is deemed as a freak event! Certainly such phenominant can really put Singapore absolutely unique.

Nikkei 225 is interesting

2011-03-16T23:07:00.003+08:00

Fig 1 Nikkei 225 Weekly Chart

I don't know about any one here, but I find the Nikkei 225 chart to be quite interesting.

Although it has done a record jaw dropping fall of 1,000 points (wow!!!!), it is still at higher low. In fact, the fall has just enable it to complete its minimum objective of the upward wedge. Not only that it is now supported by a support line drawns for the low on 27th Nov 2010.

So the situation there might not be that bad afterall...for the time being.Its present support is 9,046 while resistance at 9,737.

DJIA, long time no see....

2011-03-16T22:39:00.005+08:00

While my blood pressure is under manageable level right now, it nevertheless fluctuates. I am safe in the morning but went past safety level by evening. I guess it must be the work pressure.

Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

It has been a looooong while since I last looked at DJIA. My last update on this index was somewhere between Dec 2010 and Jan 2011. Both of them reported DJIA heading south. However, it still maintained its position for another 2 months before the reds are in.

Tonight, I am still saying the same thing, DJIA is heading south, and both Stochastic and RSI support this. They are both 1/2 way down. If my count is right, the 5 waves of c is completed and now it should be the beginning of the C wave. Its going to be ugly.

Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

Okay, this is one scenario. The positive scenario is that on daily basis, it is possible that DJIA is not that ugly. We could be at the 4th of the 3rd of C wave, which means there is a possibility of a 5th of c wave.

What I see is 2 layer of support, one a support line of 11,753 and the other the 21 days moving average at 11,696. It is highly possible that Dow Jones might rebounce upward from here, especially the Stochastic and RSI are at the bottom right now.

Okay, after all these said, it seems like I have placed bet on both side. This is not right, so which side should I bet on? My gut feel tells me that DJIA is just doing a correction and not yet a reversal. There will still be a 4th and a fifth wave coming.

What a GREAT move....

2011-03-16T00:36:00.005+08:00

I am not going to blame myself for abstenance from blogging for quite a while. I was busy, rushing to complete the tasks meant for the coming seminar at Penang by the end of the month.

I am quite busy today first with trying to send the demonstration kits to my colleagues in Thailand and Penang. It took me 1/2 a day to do so because of errors here and there. Then there is this afternoon meeting for the department. What is strange to me all these while is that my boss gets me and my colleague to present to our own people.

It was much later then I realize how much the market dropped, and I have no idea until I saw the charts. So may be it is a good idea not to read my charts too often as it corrupts the BIG picture.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI has fallen much, thanks to Japan's earthquake and Nuclear explosion. In fact, the earthquake didn't do much, it is the Nuclear explosion that gave the killing blow. It is quite rare to see Nikkei fallen by more than 1,000 points, but I have seen STI dropped by 90 points before.

STI has met its minimum object and went further, my prediction came true. It is now still holding onto the negative gradient of the Gann Grid lind but it is coming close to the apex, so its decision time soon, will STI reverse up?

One thing that I laugh about is the comments from the analyst talking about global economical melt down, they even talk about Singapore economy heading for bear market when STI hits 2,700+ level. Even my boss took out an article today detailing how much potential business losses from this earthquake. I won't want to say it up front, but I disagree.

It is not that we will in bear market at 2,700. I am sure we are already in one now considering my daily moving averages have already crossed. In addition, I am seeing this present move from 24th Feb to 9th Mar as the 4th wave, meaning we are in the fifth wave DOWN now. There will be more to come.

But will it be VEY BAD? Let's see, a 23.6% Fibonacci projection downward will lead to around 2,898. I think that will be the end of fifth, if not, 2,853 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci projection. This will complete either the C of a 3 waves pattern or 3rd of the 5 wave pattern.

Economically, a disaster is an economical event. The destruction means the need for replenishment, demand for goods increases especially when the scale of destruction is so great. I would see it as opportunity.

The scary part of course is the US treasury Bonds. 10 years ago, my teacher ever told me that Japan was the biggest buyer.There was this once USA pissed japan off and when it was trying to sell its bonds, they was no buyers, Japan sat on the fence.

If Japan lacks the money to rebuild, it might end up forced to sell the bonds. This will get the US economy to its knees and probably a bear market in USA.

So let's just hope that Japan has enough money.

Another low in my life...

2011-03-08T23:02:00.003+08:00

I was off reading charts the whole week, I was not in the mood. It seems like when bad things appear, they come in waves.

First I have hypertension and was conned into taking Beta Nicardia, resulting in:

1) pain on the back neck muscle;
2) Weak joints in particular at shoulder area;
3) Lartagidy, lack of energy after lunch;
4) Light headedness, will floating sensation (can't say I hate this because it is like on drugs);
5) Frequent headaches;

The worst effect was when I wanted to stop the medication, I experienced palpitation, with strong and quick heart pump. It took me a week to overcome the withdrawal syndrome. Mean while, I continued to experience the side effect of the medication.

Just last week, I received bad news from home, my grand mother died. While she lived until the age of 99, her last few years on earth was not good, she got dementia, difficulty in walking, put to an old folks home. She has 6 sons and none of them wanted her in. It dawn onto me that both my Grandmothers and my "maternal grandfather" have their end of lives spent in old folks home. Is this the trend nowadays where old folks are classified as useless and non-contributors?

Anyway, I manage to control my hypertension through alternate means, although it still fluctuates, it nevertheless less serious than the time when I was measured by THAT doctor.

I also have rewards on my trip back to Malaysia this round, there are a lot more juicy tales about my Grandmother that I did not know earlier. I also come to believe that my mother has conflict in herself about her feelings about my grand mother. There is a part of her hating her mother and yet there is another part which gave her fond memory.

Both my mother and grand mother shared the same birthday. She told the family during the funeral about this time when she was 9 or 10 years old. It was nighttime and she was helping my grand mother to sew the buttons for customers in bed. They rented a small room and they sheared the room with my 3 uncles. My grand mother said, " if later on the fried kuey Tiao man come, let's buy a pack of char kuey tiao. afterall, it is aour birthday." They waited, but the man never appeared. It was fated that they were never able to celebrate that birthday of theirs.

When my mother told this story, I could sense her disappointment in the story, it was not the missing kuey tiao, but not able to do something common with her mother. I felt a sense of sadness in her because it was a missed opportunity.

I had my fair share of relationship with my grandmother, afterall, she took care of me since I was born. I lived in an unstable environment then, both my parents had to work and there was not one to take care of me permanantly. My grand mother suggested to my mother that she will take care of me and my brothers while she worked. That not only gave me a place to settle down, it also saved my brother from being aborted.

It was unfortunately my life with my grandmother was discontinued at 6 when my mother and grand mother broke ties after an arguement. My grandmother of course has her evil side, but nevetheless, she cared for me. I still remember the few times she took me to see the doctor when I was sick. It was not easy considering we have to take 1 hour of bus just to reach the clinic, doctors then were not a common sight.

I missed my grandmother, that makes me think that I need to treasure my love ones more because all of us are not going to be around forever. One day, we will leave this earth. It will be too late to mend anything by then.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Speaking of STI, it has been up since last Friday and this week, it continues to move north! I won't ask what happened because that is a fundamental question, mostly. Technically speaking, it is time for rebound.

However, my guess is that its northward movement is limited because it is coming to a resistance, I believe relatively strong resistance. It is the neckline of the double top at 3,118. Not only that, there is also 21 weeks moving average at 2,123, 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 3,114.

On a positive end, both Stochastic and RSI are at the bottom and reversed, at the same time Gann Grid gradient is positive. These are indicators of bullishness.

The signals are mixed, which one should I follow? My gut feel is: STI will be going down, still.

Fighting Hypertension

2011-02-22T23:12:00.003+08:00

I have been a little lapse on my charting lately. I have earlier on mentioned of having hypertension and on medication. It was a life changing experience for me. Lately I am experiencing the negativity of the drug that I have taken, migrains, weak muscle especially the upper arms area, sleepiness and easily letargic. My heart beat has been especially sloooooowwwww lately, below the 60 pulse level while blood pressure looks okay.

Turn out the drug known as beta blockers works in the way of reducing the heart beat to control the blood pressure. But the side effects definitely is worse, worst is that the drug is not a cure but a controlling agent. The blood pressure will again shoot up once you stop for 2 to 3 days.

Since then I have been researching any altrernate ways to tackle the issue. Seems like I need to pump up my exercise routine and watch my diet. It is made worse because I am a salt person, and I need to remove all sodium contents from my diet. Well, we will see how it goes.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Speaking of Beta Blocker, STI certainly seems to have taken the same medication as I have. I recall my last entry that it is heading down, and it is.

Placing a Fibonacci Projection at second wave and third wave, level of support and resistance is derived at 3,009 and 3,044 respective. While I expect it to fall, the plunge ( with gap down ) is much more dramatic than I have thought.Not only the previous high failed to support the index, it is now the resistance.

Base on Gann Grid line, there might still be some distance to go. Next support level is 2,910 other than the Fibonacci's.

In longer term, STI does not look good, the 21 days moving average has just crossed the 89 days'. It kind of signifies the beginning of the end.

The funny thing is that Goh Chok Tong just mentioned on news that there is no U-turn on growth policy, not that I don't support. The thing is that STI does not agree with the policy and it is doing a U-Turn on its growth now.

Double Top on Capland

2011-02-16T23:59:00.004+08:00

Okay, a very short one today. A friend sent me an e-mail asking me when is it a good time to enter Capland.

I opened the chart and I saw this......

Fig 1 Capland Daily chart

It took a year for this counter to complete the double top and it has broken the neckline. I presume it will be heading south for now. Technically it is heading for 2.68.

However, if it breaks 3.46 upward, then like my teacher said, all bets are off.

How right am I?

2011-02-15T22:50:00.003+08:00

You can get it wrong many times when you do charting, but when you are right, it feels like you have won a million. So I was right about these 2 days, I mentioned that Monday should be up but short lived. In fact Monday's rise of STI was only stopped by the neckline and today it has lost all its gain, went even lower than Friday's low.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Now I am in a mild dilema, both indicators are in conflict with each other. Stochastic is reversing down while RSI up. What's in common is that they are both at the bottom. Another issue arise, STI is touching the positive gradient of the Gann Gird line while weekly chart touching the negative part.

This time I am making an educated guess base on probability. It will be up tomorrow when I consider the 4th wave of the this third wave. It could be irregular pattern so we will see a rebound up tomorrow (probably to the neckline again. This would be before it breaks through the Gann Grid and continue to move south once more. If on the other hand STI is in such a weak condition, it will break right through the Gann Grid tomorrow. A stronger rebound will come after the completion of the fifth.

In anyway, we should not be in the market now unless it breaks 3,118. That will render the double top invalid and instead indicating the possibility of the completion of the counter wave.

Correction coming....

2011-02-12T20:03:00.003+08:00

My son came down with a fever with cough. It was expected because the flu virus has been passing around the family and that he has taken a lot of heaty stuffs during CNY. We were actually anticipating this to happen. So it is again sleepless nights with scheduled medication in the middle of the night.

The only thing that I find strange is that he still has so much energy to play and enjoy himself. I recall when I was having fever as a child, it was quite hard to even walk, let alone play.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

So STI went down one more time on Friday. The lucky thing is that it met with a resistance (previous high) of 3,052.62 and rebounded. It is also quite clear that it broke through the neckline of a double top which took 4 months to create. Assuming that it does not violate the rules again, the minimum objective of the double top is 2,945.

Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis,it clearly show a 5 days drop and it broke through the 21 and 89 days moving averages. Moreover, it has also broken the long term trendline (quite some time ago). Its not a good sign so far.

The good part is that both RSI and stochastic is at the bottom which is an indication of over sold. So a rebound is due.

Fig 3 STI Daily line chart

I purposely add in the line chart this time, because it reveals a something different. What happened on 8th Feb 2011 caused a slow down in its descent. I have seen this kind of thing before. It is micro wave and the pause on the line indicated a counter wave. So what is the significance?

What I think is that the counter wave is a 2nd wave and it is followed by a 3rd wave. If this is so, 4th wave is next. So Monday is likely to be up but not for long and it tends to be irregular for a few days. It will follow by the 5th wave.

On a bigger picture, we could be well into the C wave of the whole counter wave pattern. Nov 2010 was A wave, Nov 2010 to 19th Jan 2011 is a B and now we are in the middle of C. The completion of the coming 5th wave only marks the completion of the 3rd of C wave, there will still be a 4th and 5th.

Not a very happy CNY

2011-02-10T23:01:00.004+08:00

I haven't been reading charts the last few days, my hypertension condition is ringing very loudly in my head, plus, my cough is not completely healed and it turned into a flu. My wife, my son and daughter are also catching the cough from me *sigh*. I am also having this neck pain since my return, it is strange as it is not the problem from the joints of my spine.The pain leads to headache.

The last few days have been quite chaotic, trying to adjust back to normal life. I have not been reading the charts since I was back from KL on Sunday, the notebook was dismentled from the system and I need to reconnect all the wires to get it operational.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Looking at STI, it is certainly not a good start for CNY. Coincidentally, I read my past 2 posts and noted that both posting contradict each other. It seems like the wave count at the moment is more reliable than the indicators. Like the earlier posting, there is more down side.

What interesting is the STI has now broken the double top neckline, as a respect for the pattern, the measurement of minimum objective is 2,969. STI also broke through the 21 weeks moving average at 3,150 which now become the resistance. Its 89 moving average on the other hand is supporting the index at 2,898.

On weekly basis, RSI and Stochastic is heading south, and it seems like this is only the beginning. Another point to note is STI is leaning towards the negative gradient of the Gann Grid line, so it is likely to move southward.

As for tomorrow,well, on daily basis, the indicators are already at the bottom, there might be rebound. If we believe in Fibonacci on the other hand, the next natural number is 5, so it is less liely to have a 4-day trend,the fifth is likely to be a down as well.

Breakaway candlestick

2011-01-26T22:47:00.005+08:00

I have started my Qi Gong routine again as a way to counter the hypertension issue. It has been some time since I did this. due to time constraint, I focus on the big and small heavenly circle with the whole body "massaging" (done by myself). I am not too sure of the result yet.

One more thing I noticed is that the blood pressure on my left and right hand is different! The right hand's pressure is about 10 steps higher than my left, so which should I trust?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Speaking of STI, my update last night was a flag with downward pressure. It seems that STI is not yet ready to go down. The up-ward movement today formed a Breakaway pattern under candle stick. The only short fall of this pattern is that you need confirmation. So we need STI to go higher tomorrow.

The move is supported by the up-thrust of the indicators, both RSI and Stochastic are heading north, most likely this time, they don't want to show divergence.

Continuation

2011-01-25T22:25:00.003+08:00

I am referring to my cough. It seems that after more than 1 week, 4 rounds of doctor (inclusive of one Chinese sensei), I am still coughing. I just wonder how I can get rid of my cough. I am still coughing every now and then, although it is not as serious as earlier times, it is still irritating.

As for the blood pressure, I did some read up on the issue. The one very reason why one cannot stop the medication is because no one knows if the normalization of the blood pressure is due to the drug taken or body healing. Therefore there is a tendency that the blood pressure will shoot up if medication is stopped and as a result danger of stroke.

I have talked to a colleague today, I estimated that he is a likely candidate of hypertension because of his obessity, of which I am correct. He mentioned that he did made a stop for the medication for about 1/2 year once. But there is a strange feeling (which I did not verify) and a sense of danger on his health caused him to start taking the medicine again.

So if I am to stop the medication, the first step is to find ways to really reduce the hypertension, take the remedy with the drug simultaneously and then slowly substitute the drug with the remedy. It will take a while for this to happen and I have put my plan into action only after CNY.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

It has been a while since I last read a chart (since last week), there were some lost data between 1st of Jan to 12th Jan 2011. I am not sure what happened during that period and I am hoping that it is a flat instead of protruding up, it will make quite a difference in terms of wave count.

So far, I see that both RSI and Stochastic is at the bottom and they are about to turn. But if I base on the theory, strictly speaking, I still need divergence for confirmation.

The pattern it is developing on the other hand, looks very like a downward flag, and this would mean a continuation to 3,146. Basing on wave count, this would be a "c" wave.The objective coincide with the present position of the 89 days moving average.

Just a spare thought on the issue. If base on my original estimate of wave count, we should be in a major C by now. If this is true, what's happening now is only the tip of the iceberg, there are more downside to come.

Its been hell of a week

2011-01-20T23:02:00.003+08:00

I am referring to myself. I was sick for a whole week, started last Wednesday, I guess I mentioned part of it in my last blog. Continual coughing, fever striking at 2pm every day. Even when the fever is gone now, the cough is still with me.

But that is not as bad as what I have to decide on. For quite a while now my blood pressure was on borderline. When I visited the doctor on Sunday for the fever and the cough, he insisted on measuring my blood pressure and it went sky rocketed to 164! It was to him a dangerous level and I could get stroke or heart attack anytime. I was prescribed with medication.

Still it took me 3 days to decide to take the first pill, it is to me a very hard decision. I have been hoping for the last few days that a miracle would happen, it could be the sickness, medication that caused it to go high. Or some miracle that it will come back down to normal. It happened before, but it did not this time.

Taking the pill is like taking life term, once you take it, it is close to impossible to stop taking. You have to follow it faithfully everyday without fail.

The few days also let me looked at my own life, what I have achieved, what I have not. There are too much at stake now, my kids are still too young to care for themselves and I am still stuck with this present job,half of my goals are not even half way done! At times, I feel like a failure.

Probably taking the pill is a wake up call to me, I am running short of time and I really need to shape up.

Tonight, I am not up-loading any charts. For one thing, I need STI data to stabilize, there is a week long of missing data on the chart and this makes the indicators mildly unreliable. Probably next week.

Under the weather..

2011-01-13T22:30:00.004+08:00

I have not been well the last fes days. I am still not well now. I suspect that I am catching a cold. The strange part of my cold is that it kept coming back at night only. One thing for sure, I am also coughing right now and the medicine I take makes me drowsy. I just wonder if it also has an effect on my reading.

Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

I don't have chart for indices, the service provider is screwing up again, the last up-date on STI was 3/1/2011. The only charts I have now are stock and Forex. Even so, there is nothing much to look at.

Cosco for example has been climbing up. The only trouble with this climb is that it created divergence on Stochastic and RSI. I believe the market is coming down again.

Using Fibonacci projection, the resistance is at 2.36 while support 2.17.

If I consider Elliot wave, this stratch of wave seems to completed a 5 wave pattern. So it might be time to come down.

...and I thought the worst is over....

2011-01-06T23:35:00.003+08:00

No, it is not the market I am referring to. Its my daughter's education. I thought that the most important part is to get my daughter into a good school. well, I was wrong, because my nightmare just started.

WE have just received a stack of message from the school board and the alumni. We are to meet the teachers on 22nd Jan 2011 (Saturday) and being encouraged to enroll our kids into enrichment class for Mandarin and English (for Saturday) and the greatest part is that its going to take the whole afternoon! Seems like there is no way we are going to rest on Saturday. The lucky part is that my daughter loves attending classes, I don't know why but I find her being very happy going to classes. I doubt my son be the same, he is the type who loves to be free.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

What I see on STI chart today is something called the separating lines (Candle Stick). This is a bullish continuation pattern and will need confirmation (higher highs tomorrow). What's more, today mark the crossing of the double bottom neckline, seems like it is going to be bullish for quite a while still.

A Transition in life

2011-01-04T22:05:00.004+08:00

I have not up-date my blog for a while, this is because there is a small transition in my life. Well, the passing of 2010 means I am one year older, but this is not the transition I have.

My daughter is entering Primary 1!

Today is the official day my daughter starts her primary 1 life. It is a transition not only for her, but also for me and my wife. Things will be different from now on. No more chance of taking a vacation during low season.

The transition however, makes me feel older. I am also come to realisation that its probably time to make some changes in my life.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI did not break the neckline, it took the my few days absence to climb higher. What resulted is a double bottom which measures a minimum objective of 3,320. The indicators are at the top with no diviation of reversing yet. It is probable that STI would reach this level.

It is also interesting to note that the move now seems to take the 5th wave of the direction. So am I seeing an extended 5th?

Dow Jones is turning down....

2010-12-22T23:12:00.003+08:00

It is a relatively dull day today. I organized 2 meetings with my Engineers while my boss is trying to do some remote control. It is relatively uneventful.

The only thing I want to say is that the FAE from my KL office is such a jerk. I have this customer in his territory who have taken one of my kits and I want it back together with some feedback on what they want. Guess what he did? He referred me to another guy who happen to be located at Penang! It is as if the customer is not his responsibility at all.

Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

I have not been looking at Dow Jones for a while because I felt that it is on side trend. When I look at it today using the weekly chart, it seems to me that it might be ready to come down, well at least temperarily since I am only looking at weekly chart.

The counter seems to be fulfilling a 5 wave pattern ever since July this year. It is doign the 5th right now because it poked through its previous high. If this is the scenario, the "c" wave is certainly a little small compare to "a". Nevertheless, the whole movement since March 2009 is about 61.8% retracement of the wave started October 2007. I gather that this whole move is a "B" before the great "C".

At present, the Stochastic is turning at its peak. The same with RSI except that it did not turn at its peak, it however indicated a divergence. So I guess Dow is showing some weakness.

The counter is right now resisted at 11,753 while supported by its 21 weeks moving average of 11,016.

I am feeling like holiday now

2010-12-21T22:51:00.002+08:00

I was on leave from Friday till Monday and I went back to work today. While I need to work, my drive is very low, primarily because I am going on leave again by this Thursday. Yes, I am still clearing my leaves.

One may ask why not take the whole week off to have it cleared in one go? the problem is this, taking a lone absence from work also implicates that there is very little work for you and therefore you might be of less value to the company. So even when you need to take your leave, strategise, especially when year end is round the corner.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

As I look at STI weekly chart, I also kind of thinking that it too want to take leave. So far it has continued its down trend. This some how tells me it is going for a 5th wave? RSI and Stochastic is still coming down, so I guess it will be continuation? At present it is supported by the 21 weeks moving average at 3,108.

Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

The head and shoulder pattern is more obvious on the daily chart with right shoulder mirroring the left. At the same time, we also see STI is presently support by its neckline at 3,122. It is also interesting to note that unlike the weekly chart, both indicators are at the bottom but without divergence. So is there a rebound before heading south again?

My take is: If it breaks 3,122, it is heading south. If it gap down tomorrow with open below 3,122 and stay down, the down trend is even more firm, even if it will not match the minimum objective.

The completion of right shoulder?

2010-12-16T23:34:00.003+08:00

I did not up-date my blog last night, partly because I felt I needed a rest, partly because I felt that it the market would not go far. When I read the charts on Tuesday night, nothing really interested me at all.

These 2 days, I am pretty hooked on "to Catch a Predator" and even googled on the program. I was surprise that it started its first program by 2004 and last episod (so far) was 2007 due to shroud of controversies and attacked by competitor networks.

Nevertheless, I feel that its a good program for deterance and awareness of sex predators online. So even if the producer's aim was the rating, something good came out of it.

I am actually quite surprise that after airing for more than 4 episods, potential sex predators should be vary and think twice before trying their luck on 13 year olds potential prey. They have done a total of 7-8 episods and still people willing to walk into the house without much thoughs. The most memorable to me is not the naked men ( there were 2 ), but the man who brought his 5-year old to look for the "teenager" for sex. What was he thinking?! Educate his son that its okay to have sex with a minor? I seriously doubt that his son would be safe from him at all.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, if I said nothing much happened, it would not be very true. STI has broken the envelop, in this case the neck line of a double top (small one) and went south. It tried to climb back up today with opening higher but fell back to yesterday's low.

If it goes all the way of the double top, it would be hitting the minimum objective of 3,118. This is quite coincidental to the present support level of the head and shoulder's neckline and 89 days moving average of 3,119. So I guess 3,119 it is.

While I am pessimistic about the pattern I see, the indicators are at the bottom at the moment and I guess temperorily the down side might be limited. The indicators might need to produce a divergence first before the chart turns.

Genting mimicking STI

2010-12-14T22:14:00.002+08:00

I was introduced to a new program today by a fellow forumer. Well, it is not very new but its new to me. Its call Dateline NBC: To catch a predator. It is a program about trapping and catching peadophiles in USA. It is indeed quite interesting and the program runs a few states in US. If anyone interest in the program, you can just check up http://www.youtube.com. Watching the program is indeed disturbing.

One thing that you will notice is that most of the peadophiles aren't of marcho nature. They are either plum or thin, do not really seem with capability of social relationship and not good at expressing themselves verbally. These are not alpha males and therefore need to aim lower to minors. It is only through a vase seniority that they can feel power.

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

As I look at Genting's daily chart, I kind of link it to STI daily chart. Both has completed a left shoulder and a head. They are at present probably working on the right shoulder, provided that the market is turning.

I am getting old....

2010-12-13T21:08:00.004+08:00

I went on a business trip last week to Bangkok, Thailand.The first thing that I asked myself was "where is my plane?" It was supposed to be an 8:25AM flight and yet I could not find the flight number at that time slot. It took me some time to locate my flight number which was retimed to 11:00AM. A check with the counter revealed that the flight was in late the night before and the crew have a mandatory 8 hours rest before they would fly again.

So what to do? I was there at 6:15AM, check-in with a complimentary breakfast coupon, have my breakfast at Burger King. I actually prefer Burger King's breakfast than Mc Donalds', its probably because my family has been having Mc Donald's breakfast more frequent than BK in the past.

Well, the next thing I did was to work at the airport, started with sending firy E-mails to my people to get them to work.

I reached Bangkok by 12:30PM (Bangkok's time), what greeted me at the office there gave me a scare. There was no body in the office! Turned out their boss brought them out for lunch and was only back by 2:00PM. I gave a short course to the technical people and visited one customer, ended my day at 7:00PM.

"That wasn't bad, I still can handle customer visits after all these years." or so I thought. By the third day, I screened through 6 customers, at least an hour each, repeating the same presentation and demonstration, making attempts to convince them to use our solution (with success). By the last time I finished with the last customer, I practically forgotten whose wanted what. I was in total exhaustion.

I could not recovered even after a night's sleep after my return. Every night I slept at 10:00-11:00PM and woke up around 7:00AM throughout the week end and I have not even fully regain my energy.

It was not used to be like this in the past. I think I am getting old.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

I wanted to do an update on STI last night but the service provider seemed to have gone off line. Well, what can you expect from the the Malaysian Malays?

As I looked through the weekly chart of STI, nothing has changed so far. It seems to be doing the second wave and might have even completed right now. Both Stochastic and RSI are heading south. The difference between the 2 is that Stochastic is closing in at the bottom while RSI is still half way there. So am I right to assume Stochastic might be hovering at the bottom for a while waiting for RSI?

On weekly basis, it is supported by the 21 days moving average at3,108 and resisted by the trendline at 3,201. Now this is the interesting part. This is the second time the counter fall below the trend line, I would be alarm if I am in the market right now.

Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis, things are slightly different but my feel that they are not far off. Stochastic is at the top but turning while RSI is on its way down. So is the correction over yet?

At times, the piece looks a little like a B formation and might be finishing a rectangle, either that, it is forming a double top. It is trapped between 3,219 and 3,168, so crossing either of these 2 levels are quite significant.

Why is it more a 3-wave than a 5-wave pattern at this time? This is because the low on 7th Dec penetrated below the high of 29th Nov. It violates the requirement for a 5-wave pattern.

Another worrying thing is STI has crossed below the trenline last Friday and remained below even today. Now I am not very sure what the probability is for this to break down, I would at the moment considering a higher chance of down trend than up.

On daily basis, it is supported by the 89 days moving average at 3,117 while resisted by 21 days moving average at 3,187. The trend resisting the counter at 3,197.

Its been a hard day's night....

2010-12-06T16:14:00.006+08:00

I was on leave since Friday afternoon. The purpose is to clear outstanding leaves and only 7 days are allowed to be brought over. It was supposed to be a full day's leave but I cancelled half a day because of a meeting with customer in the morning. Anyway, it was quite stupid of me to cancel 1/2 day, I have have cancelled teh whole day!

To start with, the meeting started 10:30AM and it lasted till after 12:30PM, I have lunched with my colleague and by the time I sent him back to office, it was already 2:30PM! By the time I reached home, it was 3:00PM. I just wasted 1/2 of my 1/2 day leave! Life was not that great after that, my wife asked me to do some repair to the house and I used up the remaining 2 hours to fix the wall and the bathroom cracks!

I am on leave today, but only less than half a day belong to me. I went for my Taichi in the moring after breakfast with my wife, then it was home for a short shower and rest. Right after that it was to the office to collect something I have missed and followed by fetching my kids. I have promised them a holiday after 12:00PM today and I have to be a man of my words. My parents weren't really like that and I have collected a lot of broken promises as a result, I don't want my kids to feel the same way.

Anyway, we have chicken rice for lunch, then off to Parkway Parade,where they enjoyed the arcades, eat yogurt, check up book stores and get one Play Mobil each on my tap. They are sleeping now so I guess this is the only time frame I have for my last entry before heading to Thailand.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

The chart was only up-dated till Friday last week, when I saw the chart, I was quite surprise of the free fall on Friday. It probably penetrated the high in the morning and plunged to the bottom by the end of the day.

At its peak, it failed to poke through successfully on the 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance. While Stochastic is still climbing higher, the RSI on the other hand is not. It is again a little difficult to make the call right now. My feel right now is that there is still a little to go for the correction (upward). The 21 Days moving Average is resisting at 3,184 while the 50% Fibonacci Retracement resistance at 3,218.

Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart

Looking at a higher time frame I see a slightly different picture. The Stochastic and RSI is totally in reverse of the daily chart. Stochastic is still on its way down while RSI reversed. But because it reversed on half way mark, it probably shows a correction instead of a reversal on STI.

The trend resistance/support for today is 3,178 while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 3,196. The last up-date I have is STI hovering around this region (3,198).

P.S. A look at STI chart on Today's paper give me the feeling that it is doing a counterwave. If this is the case, probably a is completed and it is doing b. From the looks of it, it could be wave 2 of A, if this is true, STI would be in deep shit.

Am I seeing a head and shoulder?

2010-12-02T23:27:00.004+08:00

It has been a relatively busy day for me today. I am in fact packing for a trip to Thailand next week, its business. It has been 2 years since I have been to Thailand for product promotion. I stopped ever since the travel ban by top management ( cost cutting). So my company is way behind other competitors in market share, especially when Lighting Solution is concern.

My "favourite" engineer is not helping neither. As expected, she grumbled about me rejecting her leave application, not only that she lodged a complaint to my boss. I stood my ground and eventually she has to do it my way.

The thing with urgent leave is this, regardless what "confiential personal work" you need to do, you need to be clear on what you are doing. This is an unbreakable rule in the industry and even I have to obey such rule. I can't ignore the fact that she undermine the system and that trying to use my boss to manipulate me.

Guess what? At the end, she has to put in the reason, installation of surveilence system. Now I wonder what kind of confidentiality needed? Is she seriously think that I might invade her home?

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I was looking at the DJIA just now, I kind of interested in the formation it is doing right now. The set up looks more like a head and shoulders with objective of 10,370.

The indicators are also supporting the direction DJIA is heading, both of them are moving lower.

Fig 2 DJIA zoomed out

Zooming out a little, you would see a slightly different picture. Potentially, DJIA could be making a double or tripple tops. As far as I am concern, such patterns are downward reversal formations. Anyway, under such condition, the neckline is around 9,632. In that case, DJIA has somewhere to go and even then it is uncertain about its trend. Because, it could jolly well be a huge rectangle, afterall, it is a HUGE wave.

As for wave pattern concern, considering a 3-wave pattern, DJIA is only half way down. If it decides to go for a 5-wave pattern, then more likely it will be stopped only by the neckline.

Remember the head and shoulders that I mentioned earlier on in this entry? It seems to be an mirror image of a bigger reverse head and shoulders formed between May to July 2010. As a whole, DJIA has been in 3-wave formation since the congestion started April this year. I have counter so far a completion of A and B wave. So it is likely the C wave just started, meaning DOW with an eNd.

Oh! I missed England.....

2010-12-02T00:00:00.004+08:00

While having dinner with my relative from England, I just realized how much I missed the country.

Lee Kuan Yew always said Singapore is unique, but seriously, there is nothing unique about Singapore. I am the destination expert for Singapore in http://www.tripadvisor.com and I find myself having difficulties tohave break through in recommendation on places of interest. There are simply too little to go around.

England is truly unique, how often you have people chasing after "Today in Parliament" the heated debate on issues, members of parliament asking questions simply because it concerns the welfare of the people who supported him. The level of brilliance the prime minister is definitely shown in the process. His policies is constantly being scrutinized by the MPs regardless ruling party or opposition. Best yet, there is no party whip, MPs vote because they make their decision. The British actually watch their "today in Parliament".

Comparing to England, Singapore parliament is a joke! Preprepared questions, childish and inexperience handling of rebuttal to the oppositions, only "constructive" criticisms allowed. Worst yet, the minister of the policy or the prime minister have the last say. I also find the ministers somehow fail comprehension because they respond to the questions with answers leading to the question. For example if the question is " how is eating this makes you more healthy?", their answer is "yes, I have eaten this." The joke is that the speaker of parliament considered the question answered. How can Singapore move forward with this kind of parliament where policies is not properly scrutinized?

Fig 1 Wing Tai Weekly Chart

Tonight, I am reading Wing Tai through the weekly chart. The daily chart is too distracting. Wing Tai is supposed to come down because of a head and shoulder. It has earlier retrace back to the neckline after breaing it momentarily. The trouble is it is now clinging onto the neckline, refusing to go down.

What I also see is the indicators trending down so most likely the counter should be going lower soon. But I am uncertain judging from the lack of movement on Wing Tai. Partially because it is moving in side trend, partially because it is at the apex of the Gann Grid lines. The weakness of chartist is when chart go side trend, it makes a difficult read and you won't know when is the counter really going to move. changing trend of indicators only tells its reversal but not the momentum.

Wing Tai is presently clamp between the 21 weeks moving average resistance of 1.74 and 89 weeks moving average support of 1.678. I figure that it is quite a narrow band. Sooner or later, it has to break either up or down.

The 50-50 chance

2010-12-01T23:19:00.004+08:00

Remember the female Indian Engineer that I mentioned much earlier? She is getting bolder after noting that with all her behavioural problem, no action was taken against her.

She has been applying for "urgent" leave recently, all taken on the very day. The first was a visit of relatives from India, then medical check up. Today it is to work on personal issues.

Seriously speaking, If there is a relative from oversea visiting, won't you bother to plan your leave to make sure you have time to accompany the relative? If you are scheduled with medical check up, won't you plan in advance the necessary leave to make sure it is approved?

She did not even bother with elaborate excuses today. She simply applied 1/2 day leave after lunch and went off without informing anyone at all! The leave excuse is "personal issues". I am sorry but for urgent leave, I requires proper explanation to pass the bill.

She must be thinking I am an idiot not to notice the frequency of her leave application. She is looking for job. If she manage to get it, good ridence! Anyway, she has nothing to lose at all,I am already making sure she is not going to get her bonus other than the 12.5 months ( yes, 12.5 months due to flexi-wage policy, no thanks to our Singapore Government). If fact, if she stays beyond January, she is going to get a nasty appraisal! I have always been going by the book, reward the efforts and punish sabotages. It will be no different this time.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

After reading the the weekly chart during the weekend and a brief look at the daily chart on Monday, I took a night off as my relative from England was here, we have a sumptious dinner at Vivo City.

I looked at the daily chart today and find it a little difficult to decipher. Primarily the indicators are at odds with supports and resistances. Both indicators show strong momentum of an up-trend (indicator wise) so it tends to lead STI upward. The only weakness in this is the lack of divergence.

At the same time, STI is now resisted by the 21 days moving average at 3,184, it is also situated at the apex of the Gann Grid lines. SoI guess its 50-50 chance of up and down.

While I felt that the wave seems to be short of the 5th of 5th wave, I am at the same time finding the last 2 days pattern to be more like a 3 wave pattern, but thenI can't confirm this yet.

What give me more confidence of a continuation up is the trend line support that I have drawn on STI.My teacher said before, if you have three points touching the trend line and rebounded, it is prudent. So the recent event see STI touched the trendline (in Blue) went mildly below and came back up today, this likely to qualify for a false break. There might still be a change of 3,400.

If however, it decides to go south, the neckline support at this moment is 3,121.Breaking this is likely to confirm a continuation downward.Further south is 89 days moving average support of 3,102.

Long time never see HSI

2010-11-28T23:22:00.003+08:00

It has been quite some time since I last talked about HSI. Probably because its movement did not really affect STI much nowadays.

Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

Looking at it now however, seems like it has all the signs of going down. RSI and Stochastic on down trend, with clear divergence downward. The best part are the 3 black crows from Candlesticks. The next support level is 22,388.

I wonder...

2010-11-28T23:10:00.004+08:00

I was clearing some of my leaves since Thursday, coincidentally it was also my daughter's graduation ceremony. Her class was to perform a dance to the teachers and parents. The dance itself is quite up to standard, for a K2 class that is.

I also spent my Friday with my kids, the school was closed to rest after the graduation session, so I brought them to watch Rapunzel, my daughter loves it, my son likes it and I am quite facinated by the 3D effect. The bad thing though is that you need to wear the glasses, and the tickets cost SGD14.00 each! So for three of us we have spent SGD42.00 for movie alone.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

This is the weekly chart. If I base on the indicators, what I have is both Stochasitc and RSI heading south, meaning that there are more down side to STI.

I am a little confuse though. The recent dip looks more like a 4th of the 5th wave. The dip in April looks like a simple 2 and this a complex 4th. So base on this analogy, there is a chance for STI to go higher still, one more shot before it fizzles out.

There might still be a chance to hit 3,400. which is around the point of 23.6% Fibonacci projection. Its support on the other hand comes from 21 weeks moving average of 3,084.

The STI plunge...

2010-11-23T22:06:00.003+08:00

I am not really in a happy mood by the evening today. No, I was not affected by the stock market, in fact I have no idea what happened until I check the chart. My last check in the morning only registered a 22 point drop.

So what was my anger? My team was engaged with a customer on a project. The Engineer worked for a few months to improve on the design to hand the prototype to the customer. We have received a good news last weekend that he was to transfer the project to his sub-con. This means that he would be going through pilot run and mass production! The projected volume of the mass run is substantial.

Yet my sales team have very luke warm response to the news, in fact, almost nothing is heard from them. It turned out that the sub-con is a bad pay master and they were contemplating to drop the opportunity! For the few months we were working on the project, no one on their side actually check up with the customer on his strategy and only until the project come to a close that they realise its a no go and would just drop the opportunity wthout a single consideration of the work put in? Damn!

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, I guess STI share my sentiments today. I was expecting some pull back before it plunge further, it seems like STI can't wait! I was lazy in my entry last night because I was not expecting the plunge, my registered level was 23.6% Fibonacci support at 3,171, and 32.8% Fibonacci support at 3,155. I never thought that it will go as far as 61.8% Fibonacci of 3,126. In fact it went below to 3,126!

But then, with both Stochastic and RSI digging underground now, It is also supported by the probable neck line of 3,119. Most likely STI will rebound for the next few days. It is also possible for it to form the right shoulder this time, afterall, weekly chart only register the beginning of the fall.

If however, it fall through, then the next level of support is the 89 days moving average of 3,097 and support of 3,043.

Genting going down.....

2010-11-20T22:00:00.003+08:00

I recall my last up-date on Genting that it was not yet the end and only a fire work will makr its ending. Well, I have not really seen fire works yet but now I am bearish on Genting.

Fig 1 Genting Weekly Chart

I am doing a read on Genting on weekly basis to check on what it was doing. The volume seen the last 2 weeks were definitely much greater but failed to stand out. Further more, while it has by last week opened higher than the week before, reached a new height and fell below the previous close, it was not exactly something noticeably different. I was expecting a spike reversal and it had not happened.

However, both RSI and Stochastic indicators are reversed downward with confirmation through divergence. These are strong indication of a trend reversal. However, my guess is that: like its overlord the STI, it should be going down for the a few weeks before moving back up.

Genting is presently supported at ... welll, I did not really see previous highs. But a previous low of 1.85 might indicate a support level there. The 21 weeks moving average on the other hand is supporting at 1.80.

The MOE scholar caught with child porn

2010-11-20T20:35:00.003+08:00

Okay, the bottom line is still writing about stock market, but today I want to add y thought on the recent child porn story.

An MOE scholar who is in his final year studying history in University of York was caught with 50 child porn on his computer. My first thought as a parents is that its quite disgusting. Imagine that he is going to work in Ministry of Education (MOE) and would probably be a teacher teaching and engaging with children all the time. It will give him ample opportunity to act out his fantasies. What makes it worst is that he was already known as a Peeping Tom in Secondary school and were reported to have been caned publicly!

The netizens have been roaring for the last few days with heated debate on the case, most were critical of the MOE on its selection criteria, how does one candidate with such flaw be sip through the scanning process? Many wants the MOE to answer for doing such a sloppy job.

The official media was also hot on the case. However, they only focussed on the scholar himself, criticising that he has let the MOE down. His personal details such as his primary school of Nanyang Primary, secondary school Chinese High and Junior College Hwa Zhong. Little comment was given on MOE part except for an article from public asking MOE what happened.

To me, the official media is over zealots in reporting the juicy story of the person. As far as I know, it has been going on and on over the same information for more than 3 days! What it is doing aims to divert attention away from the MOE. Because if people question the MOE or even the minister, in this case Ng Eng Hen, he will have a hard time answering.

While it does publish a single letter from public today, I would 100% expect an official response from someone of MOE with text book answer, the official media will stop any further write ins from public to create an illusion that the case has been answered and should move on.

This case brings me to another question, and this is about the purpose of the scholarship. I think I have reflected before that scholarship is to help those with capacity in learning and yet lacks the finance. Yet looking at this scholar's back ground, I really wonder, does he need the scholarship to further his study in UK? I am seriously in doubt that he is of a poor family, in fact with his education record, he could well be someone from a well to do family. He would still be studying in University of York even without the scholarship. He has no need for scholarship!

If this is the case, why the scholarship at all? Offcial answer would be to retain talents to work for the Government. But such answer only tells people that working for Government sucks and you need to throw out candies to lure unsuspected prey in!

My sources tells a different stories, these scholars will eventually work in the government agencies with constant job rotations, they will eventually assigned to high posts to oversee operations, become top civil servants, MPs or even ministers. They would not even need to work to get promoted. So if this is the case, so long meritrocracy!

Such scholarships tanted the true purpose which is to help poorer students a better chance to learn. It has become a novelty for those link to the government, a prestidge for fame among peers. How many of the scholars have family links with people of the government? I sense a lack of transparency on the government part on statistics for such distribution. Scholarships are meant for the poor, and it is a shameful thing for a rich person to even think of applying.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Now back to charting. A week has past and STI has one direction, down! Base on the weekly chart, both its indicators are down with divergence, confirming its support for a down trend. I believe we would be seeing a downward movement on the next few weeks. The support I see on weekly basis through its previous high is 3,037 while its 21 weeks moving average supported at 3,077. There are some way to go from here.

Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

Things seem different when come to daily chart, although both indicators are down, they have reached the bottom. It is possible for STI to reverse up ward by beginning of next week. But because its higher time frame shows a down trend, this uptrend might be very short lived.

Further to that, the last 2 days of the week have produced what's look like a counter wave. Looking at the larger picture, it would well be a 4th wave. So we should be expecting a 5th on its way. This would mean that a counterwave of B will follow after the completion of this down trend and then followed by a C further down.

So it might really be a good time to sit on the fence at this time.

AUD declining

2010-11-18T22:01:00.004+08:00

In contrast to USD, AUD seems to be weakening after much pumping up effort. Its indicators are very persuasive for a down ward thrust, plus this high point seems like a strong resistance when you consider all the past failed effort to break through this range. From what I see now, its resistance is located at around 130.11 and support at 115.011.

Fig 1 AUD versus SGD Weekly Chart

To me, may be the fall of AUD is a good thing, at least I can consider another trip there as I like the lay back lifestyle there.

USD on reversal?

2010-11-18T21:41:00.003+08:00

I have not been up-dating much on USD vs SGD lately, partly because it fell through my last perdiction and I was spending some time figuring out what it was doing. Certain the US Government prining of USD has much to do with its further depreciation, leading to the failure in proper forecast of its move not only by me, but quite a few veterans who think that the USD rally is over due.

The other factor that I see the continue plunge of the USD is link to the rising of the indices. Somehow as far as the indices, primarily STI and DJIA is rising, the USD sinks. I can roughly explain the STI and USD link, people dump USD for SGD to invest into the Singapore Stock Market. This is taught by my teacher and I think it still applies. As for USD versus DJIA, my guess is that the US Stock Market is no longer as attractive as others in the world, so even though it rises, it does not attract enough investers to pump up the USD.

Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

Base on the weekly chart, it can be seen that the indicators for USD is at their lows, the tendency for it to reverse now is even higher than before.Further more, it is supported by its positve gradient Gann Grid line. It is however resisted by its present 21 weeks moving average at 13,284 while support of its previous low of 12,814.

Some how, I am thinking that this chart is reversed because I am counting a completion of wave B (3 waves) and a wave C should commence.

Fig 2 USD vs SGD Monthly Chart

To make sure of the reversal tendency , I moved on to the monthly chart, evidently its indicators are also at the bottom and reversing, this makes a stronger support for USD to start rising.

Of course, what's more important is knowing the relationship between USD and the STI index, if it is firm that USD is rising, this would mean STI will likely to fall, and fall hard.

DJIA.....

2010-11-17T19:53:00.003+08:00

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I just has a glance at DJIA, the only thing in my mind is "This is bad...."

Its next support level is 10,719.

Another mis-read again?

2010-11-17T15:21:00.003+08:00

It is Hari Raya Haji today and my family went for something we have not done for some while, we went to East Coast for breakfast in the morning.

The place was actually quite crowded when we reached there and car parks were full. Luckily we got hold of a parking lot at the road side. But instead of Mac Donald as we originally planned, we went for Burger King instead. For something we have not done for a long time? Its a great way to rejuvenate.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, not so for STI. My last update as I recalled was on Monday, there was a moment I thought of a possbility with STI reversing. It seems unlikely at this moment. It broke through the Gan Grid Apex and went further down.

The question that I should ask myself now is whether I should predict its next move knowing that the last few reads were bad? So is this the reversal I have been waiting for?

My present read? Indicators are heading south, not yet at the bottom. So the present level which borders the previous high as well as the 21 days moving average might not hold. Adding a Fibonacci retracement levels, it should be heading to 61.8% level of 3,201. My guess is that it is going to follow the negative gradient of Gann Grid lines on the way down.

My daughter's birthday

2010-11-15T21:36:00.003+08:00

Its my daughter's birthday today and we celebrate at her kindergarden. It is strange that things are so different now. When I was her age, I practically did not know when my birthday was, let alone celebrating at school. I did vaugely recall that I went up the stage at school on my birthday month with a whole lot of other kids, the school just sang Happy Birthday and that's it. Now the class has a party when its someone's birthday.

Another interesting part of my daughter's birthday is that the birthday girl or boy is the one who give presents to everyone on top of contributing the cake. So it is from parents pocket that the presents were bought.

One interesting fact is that Buddhist do not really consider birthday something worth celebrating. Buddhist call the day the Parents Suffering Day. This is true especially for the mother, hours of excruciating pain and risk of death just to give birth to a new life. Seriously it is not really an easy life having children and that is why a lot of people nowadays decide not to have kids.

There is however reward in having kids. One would really enjoy the attachments, the attention seeking of their children. They give you a sense of pureness as a child and interacting with them makes your mind works.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, it is also time to make my mind works. My last two prediction aren't really good, the market have been on the opposite end of my prediction. The thing is that I am reading the chart and can only interprete what the chart tells me. There is never a 100% accuracy, irf there is, I would be a Billionaire right now.

For STI today, both indicators are heading south with exception that RSI seems to have a tendency of reversing. This coincide with the Gann Grid line which is crossing from negative to positive region. In fact, STI is today at the apex. No only that, it is close to the support resulted from the previous high of 3,220.

There is a tendancy that STI is reversing up by tomorrow, its recent down turn is to fill up the gap it has created. If base on the gap measurement, it should be reaching the 23.6% Fibonacci projection resistance of 3,345.

STI on fifth wave

2010-11-10T23:25:00.002+08:00

It has been more than a week since I have last touched my charts. I kind of missed it. So I was quite unhappy that I did not manage to get an up-date on the movement.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Today, I am using the weekly chart for my analysis. Frankly speaking, it is hard to tell base on the indicators, Stochastic is heading up while RSI reversing down. I will have to move on to using wave count for this.

With STI breaking previous high, it is quite confirm that it is on the fifth of the fifth wave. The beginning of the fifth wave was an extended first wave. Third wave was straight forward, the second was a complex while 4th a simple for this round. So there will still be some where to go for STI base on the latest development.

Using Fibonacci projection, the probably limit this round is 23.6% projection of 3,410.Its 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 3,068.

Just one week and there are so many changes...

2010-11-09T21:35:00.004+08:00

I was virtually travelling the whole of last week. It was an unscheduled event which I needed to travel to Da Nang for a seminar. I started my trip by Monday only to come back by Wednesday. I travelled again to KL by Friday and was only back yesterday.

I was mildly surprise on my return that so much has changed, primarily STI went up! It broke down the head and shoulder formation and went to higher high. So this is the fifth wave! I was expecting a longer period of 4th wave with head and shoulders completing its objective. It seems that the market cannot wait.

The worst thing is that my service provider is broken down again! I was making a few attempts to down load my data but to not avail. Now I am not able to check on the charts till it is well again.*sigh* I would have to call on the service provider again tomorrow to log complaint!!!!

Head and Shoulders, and its not dendraff

2010-10-28T23:11:00.002+08:00

I remember it is my final year in my diploma course that I learned about responsibility and accountability. It is an interesting subject and I remember the concept well. The topic was part of the Supervisory subject.

The existence of responsibility and accountability is a result of exsistence of hierarchy. Responsibility is different at each level of a hierarchy, the higher the level, the area of responsibility increases.

An operator at production line for instance, carries the least amount of responsibility of probably inserting a certain number of components, a line leader would be responsible for the proper working of a group of operator, a supervisor would be in charge of a few line leaders, meaning a few groups of operators, a production manager would be in charge of a few supervisors and operation manager would involve the production, Engineering and quality control.

With responsibility means power, it also comes with accountability. an operator may only be accountable for the few components that she takes care of, but a production manager would have to answer on behalf of the operators from the whole production floor. Accountability is in fact very important to ensure proper working of a system.

What would happen if the acccountability is removed from responsibility. This would mean that one need not answer to any wrong doings therefore there is no consequence no matter how big the damage caused.

So where do we see examples of responsibility without accountability? Malaysia is certainly a good example. For years the malaysian Government has been in full control of the country, over the years, they realise that they can get away with any wrong doings because no one would be able to take them accountable. They colluded with the police, control the judicial to further prevent people from convicting them of any crime.

The effect is corruption and complacency. Greed is seen on those in power. In fact there are roumors that the high powers compete on how much bribe they are getting, they are not interested in one or two hundred thousands, we are talking about tens of millions! As there is no accountability, it does not matter if the job is done, since no one would be charge for any failure, no one would be sack at all. Such acts suck the life out of the country.

What about Singapore? I recall LKY ever mentioned complacency. This was right after MAs Selamat managed to escape. I believe LKY want to tell the people of Singapore that they are complacent. But who exactly are complacent? The people are only accountable of their lives beacuse they have no say in policies, they also have little choice of who should represent them, choicing the wrong side means dealy consequences like no lift up-grading. In fact, there is no complacency in people's part because the only concern is to make a living, if you don't you won't survive. Some how it seems like the strategy of government work to create 100% employment.

It is in fact the Government itself being complacent, because there is no accountability as long as it is not in the light. With complacency comes corruption, the check and balance does not exist, that is why we have cases of director of civil service earning 12 mil and drive sports car. If not for the accident, no one even know how much he has taken. Well, some may argue that this is only one case. But is it? For one case to come to light, there are 10 still hidden.

To get the country working properly, check and balance is necessary, a single party system would certainly fail to do so.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I will make this one short because I have just wrote about it a few days earlier. What I see today is a head and shoulder formation with STI broken the neck line, it is heading for 3,073 but not before retracing to neck line. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is at 3,068.

Who likes Diamond?

2010-10-27T23:46:00.002+08:00

Girls love diamonds, well, my wife is exceptional.She does not wear jeweleries, tat is why she always tells me that she gives me a lot of savings.

Fig 1 Tiong Woon Daily Chart

I have earlier bought this counter at 0.455. It went up as expexted but failed to reach my objective, and unfortunately, it came down all the way to below my buying price. I stopped loss as I find the move to be quite bad.

So now I see diamond in this chart and it has just broken downward. Diamond is reversal signal and this is no good for Tiong Woon. The objective for Diamond on Tiong Woon is 0.40.

Cabinet reshuffle...er...change

2010-10-27T22:57:00.003+08:00

This is breaking news, the Singapore government has just announced a cabinet change! Wong Kan Seng is stepping down as Minister of Home Affairs and taking up the challenge of Ministry National of Security.

The explanation is that it is normal phenomenon. Ministers normally have job rotation into different post. Well, this is not so normal in Singapore. As far as my memory goes, I have not recall any of such job rotation in the past. Especially when election is getting closer.It is a little strange for such action now, isn't it? If the system is working well, why make changes?

While LHL is playing down the event and some "scholars" providing good explanation to this action such as a process of self renewal. This is commonly known as a cabinet reshuffle. This is a process which happens when the ruling party of a country become unpopular and the head of state initiate such action to remove unpopular ministers. Of course other countries do not have a large pool of ministarial title such as Minister of National Population and Talent Division (I really wonder what the heck this is?). So is Wong Kan Seng going to be like Simon Cowell?

So the conclusion is that PAP realise that its unpopularity has risen to new heights and it would reach desaster level should nothing is done. Our deputy Prime Minister was instrumental in the escape of MAs Selamat and the very fact that PM Lee not only defended but retained him has seriously damaged the integrity of the party, certainly it seems that there is no such thing as meritrocracy in the ruling party.

The highlight of the reshuffling this round is a clear indication that PM Lee needs to remove the liability in a subtle way. While DPM Wong seems to be taking up more roles, he has been in fact "明升暗降“. As compare to a minister of Home Affairs, Minister of National Security and overseeing National Population and Talent are certainly much more minor.

No offence to DPM Wong, but I definitely do not feel that he qualify for the job of National Security. Mas Selamat escape under his care and this is a real good track record of his incompetency.

Another thing about this reshuffling is that it is indication of election might be much further away. PM Lee needs to get the new formation work to show case his success. My feel is that it is unlikely to hold election in two months time when the seats are not even warmed. A normal pace for a person to get used to a new post is 1/2 a year before result can even be seen.

I suspect that PAP realize that the risk is too great to call for election now ( or two months ahead ). PM Lee might want to wait until Budget announcement to spread some sweetness before hand.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

As for STI today, I am not sure if it foresee the coming reshuffling. The fall is great and at one point fell by 43 points. Technically speaking, it is on the edge of the negative gradient for Gann Grid lines, naturally, it should be down.

Both indicators are also descending, adding on to the weight. Probably STI would be going down for the next 2 days even.

The support I see comes from the 89 days moving average at 3,036, the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of 3,107 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 3,070.

Romance with Aztech

2010-10-26T23:26:00.004+08:00

Fig 1 Aztech Daily Chart

I have a little romance with Aztech recently, the relationship lasted for about a month.

Aztech was about 0.20-0.205 when I enter her life. It was developing a descending triangle when I saw her and it seemed at the time was about the end. The RSI and Stochastic then there at their lows and I guess there is no harm in venturing further, even though it has not touched its lower envelop yet.

I entered at 0.205 with espectation that if she breaks out of her triangle, she would be heading for 0.35 eventually.

She did not disappoint me, at least not till mid September. She suddenly has a change of heart, pausing at no more than 0.235 level. In the midst of congestion, she has created a double top with objective of 0.193. Still I have hopes that she would pull trhough the hardship and eventually bring herself higher.

It was a disappointment, she has dropped further to 0.215. I have thought earlier that I would have to part with her if she ended below 0.215. Eventually I did not wait. I just let go at 0.215.

Looking back now, I feel a little lucky that I did what my heart told me. She went a further 0.01 to 0.205. Both RSI and Stochastic are on continuation downward. My guess is that she is going to fulfill its objective of 0.19.I think probably only then that I should be seeing her again.

I have just fixed Dow Jones

2010-10-21T23:24:00.004+08:00

Don't be mistaken, I do not have the capacity to manipulate such huge market. My DJIA data from my service provider has not been accurate lately. First something was wrong with the data showing only 3,000+ points when Dow was at 11,000+. Then after the system went down and up again, the system simply did not up-date on Dow so I have to enter the data manually. Well, at least I don't have to do the same for others.

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

Looking at the chart, the first question came into my mind is "is it ready to come down?"

It has reached or at least close to the previous high of 11,258 and from what I see would be a ressitance level.

Its indicators are not really fantastic at the moment since both of them are at the top. RSI produced a mild divergence while Stochastic has a third peak. Its first was donequite some time ago.

So there are likelihood that DJIA is reversing. It is presently supported by its 21 days moving average of 10,912.

On a side note. If DJIA continues to fall and crosses 9,614. It would create a formation of double top and the consequence is BAD,a rough measurement indicates a low of 7,985. But then, whether it is going to reach there or not will only be revealed 2 months later (at least).

SSEC follow up

2010-10-20T22:10:00.003+08:00

I went on leave today. It is my daughter's official registration for primary one. I was a little strange that the school asked us to be present by 10:30AM. So my wife and I took time off work to go through the process.

What the school did not tell us was that they have also arranged vendors to be at the school. So we did not bring our daughter there for purchase of uniforms and shoes. Nevertheless, we did complete the school bus registration and purchase of all the books.

I was also quite surprise that my daughter belong to the green house, because I belonged to the green house too when I was in primary school.

Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

Now back to chart, my last up-date indicated SSEC having more chance of continuation than reversal. That was the time when it was in a congestion band. Well, it did break out on the up-side. In fact, it reach an objective of more than what the rectangle indicated. In all it was an objective of a swing move.

Fig 2 SSEC Daily Chart

Now I am using a past tense because SSEC's indicators are showing weakness. The weekly ones seems reversing while the dailies not only reversing but on divergence. So SSEC is likely to follow the rest on reversal.

At present there is a support at 2,981 while 21 weeks moving average at 2,796.

STI on reversal

2010-10-18T22:50:00.006+08:00

Okay, it is like Deja Vu because I have mentioned this before. STI is reversing now because of divergence on indeicators for both weekly and daily basis.

The moving average support level on daily basis is 3,139 while resistance from Fibonacci Projection is 3,197.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

Damn! Server down....

2010-10-13T22:30:00.001+08:00

No, not the server of Temasek Review. It is the server of my service provider!

It has been down since last Saturday and even until now, I can't get a successful down load and I have to depend on my broker's web-site. I can't really write anything on stocks for now until their server is up and running again.

Seriously, I won't want to say anything bad about Malays, but those in Malaysia really can't make it.

SSEC is still stuck

2010-10-06T22:52:00.001+08:00

I just have a glance at SSEC, I am surprised that it is still stuck in a congestion band. Really I think it should really move on.

Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

One thing for certain, this is more of a rectangle continuation instead of top reversal.

The use of NLP Circle of Excellence

2010-10-06T22:29:00.002+08:00

It has been quite a while since I have last used the NLP resources on myself.I have been a coach in the past applying all the methods from NLP until one day I got a little sick of it.

Since I am really (really) down these few days, I have decided to use one of the method to overcome my weakness, I chose Circle of Excellence. It is not that easy to use because you need to build resources on an object and then absorb the energy of the resources. The advantage is that you can build more than one resource and you can reuse the object. Everytime you touch the object, the resources will automatically be available to you.

So from a simple circle of excellence, I can diversify into phone of excellence, door of excellence, notebook of excellence, etc. The only problem with the creation is that people will think you are a wierdo holding on to an object while looking like having an orgasm.

But then, the circle of excellence worked for me today and I felt much better afterward.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I have been writing about STI these few days because the development is quite interesting. As I mentioned yesterday, the market seems to be celebrating LKY's wife passing, it again went another notch higher.

The interesting part of today's move is that it is stopped at the 38.2% Fibonacci projection of 3,197. At the end of the day, it retraced to 3,190.

The Stochastic somehow retraced while RSI continued to climb. The only problem with that is that the up-side is limited. Further more, the index is reaching a turning point base on the Gann Grid line that I have placed. So I supposed this time the evening star would be more plausible than the last.

At present STI will be supported by its 23.6% Fibonacci projection support at 3,141. IF going higher, the next resistance will be 50% Fibonacci Projection at 3,244.

Losing steam

2010-10-05T22:27:00.003+08:00

It was during my days in Polytechnic that I have lunch with my supervisory lecturer who also happened to be the head of Electronics and Communication Department. During the lunch meeting, he mentioned of having difficulties in catching up with Technology and other might catch up to him soon. I did not quite get what he meant at that time, surely as long as you continue to acquire knowledge, you will continue to be at the top of your class, won't you?

Well, it seems that I am experiencing now what he was experiencing then. Although I am going to work every day, my performance continues to deteriorate. Others might not notice ths because I am still so good in camourflaging.

Most notably, my motivation continues to drop because I am not getting the satisfaction I need. I am no longer able to simply pursue knowledge because there are other factors in life distracting my goal. May be the most important factor that cause my deterioration is that my heart is no longer in technology.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I recall my prediction yesterday that STI would open lower which would lead to confirmation of an evening star. Well, I got it right partially. It opened much lower, but continued to climb up throughout the day. Probably to the surprise of everyone, it closed a few points higher than yesterday's open. quite impressive I must say.

So does this mean that market is really positive in anticipation of Lee Kuan Yew's retirement? I think the market wants a change of management.

Anyway, while Stochastic and RSI continue to climb, their position remains high. RSI itself is also tapering off, so there is a weakening in momentum. Therefore, while STI might still climb, it is quite limited as far as I am concern.

Using Fibonacci projection, the resistance and support are at 3,198 and 3,141 respectively.

Potential Evening Star on STI

2010-10-04T23:00:00.004+08:00

It was on Saturday that I have heard news on the passing of Madam Kwa Geok Choo, she is the wife of the present Minister Mentor of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew and mother of the prime minister Lee Hsien Loong. My condolence to the Lee family (should they visit my blog).

Over the radio, I have heard about the Lee family asking for people not to publish any arbituary on Mrs Lee's passing to make this a private affair. The state media however, seem to fail in understanding this. Articles on Mrs Lee have been published on newspapers for days with more than 1 page of coverage every single day. Some of the articles even exagerated her contribution to the country ( this I heard from forum ). She is the wife of Lee Kuan Yew, is it necessary to make her bigger than life?

At the same time, I have been reading on forums about her, netizens seems to be much less sympathetic to her. To them, it was like "finally! She is dead!" While most netizens dislike the Lee family, primarily Lee Kuan Yew, it is not justify poke fun at her death simply because she is his wife. With all due respect, see her as a person, while I do not see much contribution from her to the country ( probably because I seldom read about her stories ), she has done little in harming people as far as my understanding goes.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, one reason I wrote about Mrs Lee's passing in this blog is because of market reaction. It shot up by 30 plus points when opened, only to drop to 3,197 by closing time. So is this also because of the market joyous on her death? I mean it is like the market mocking at Lee Kuan Yew's loss.

While the RSI and Stochastic have turned upward indicating a possible continuation uptrend, the indicators are pretty high at this moment. I doubt that the market is very bullish. I suspect STI is having an evening star.

The market is realistic, it does not joke or mock at someone's death. I think the market is now worry about the political uncertainty of Singapore. Mrs Lee passing means Lee Kuan Yew losing a pillar of support, I believe Mrs Lee's presence is is very important to generate drive for Lee Kuan Yew. He might not last until the next election without her, let alone running an election.

It is a high chance that market is about to turn.

Has Genting reversed?

2010-09-23T23:23:00.002+08:00

My last entry talked about Genting is at dangerous level with a 60 degree climb. Then the next day it started dropping, so for a moment there I thought, "Wah! So jun-ah?"

Seriously speaking, was that the explosive closing that I have mentioned?

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

Actually the price move is quite disappointing, it really did not go with a bang! The same thing is said about the volume on that day. For the next 2 days this counter has been going down, but not the way I picture it for an aggressive counter.

While Stochastic and RSI has shown a momentum downward, my guess is that it is not yet finish, this is still just a correction. I recall a spike reversal that I have learned before, there were 3 different configurations, one straight with 1 day reversal pattern, the second one is a spike, then followed by a short congestion creating a flag. The third is actually a flag before the spike, which I feel is more fitting for this counter.

My last read indicated a peak at 2.34. It is still possible that there it would rest.

KLSE 3 white Soldiers?

2010-09-22T22:00:00.003+08:00

Fig 1 KLSE monthly chart

I see 3 white soldiers on KLSE chart, so is KLSE continue to ramp?

An example of market Euphoria

2010-09-20T23:21:00.004+08:00

During the early days of my pursue of knowledge in the field of Technical analysis, my teacher ever told me of the 3 phases of movement.

When a chart starts to move, it begins with gradual 20-30 degree climb. This would be relatively dull and boring. As interests on the counter grow, its angle of assencion change to 45 degree. This is where demand equal supply. There is however a time when the climb turn steep to an angle of 60 degree. This is what he told me as market euphoria. It is at this point when people do not care, they will never think any alternative will be possible.

Sadly this is also the point where the bubble will burst any time. It will end with a sectacular display of fire works, huge volume with huge move. Before you know it, the chart will quickly descend.

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

Here, I am witnessing a market euphoria at work, people continues to predict how much higher it is going without the consideration of market reversal. The indicators are that the peak and have once defied a possibility of divergence. If this counter continues to go up, how far will it be going? Base on Fibonacci projection that I have placed in, target would be somewhere at 2.34.

But then I won't really dare to go in this one, it will be too late to do so anyway and it is not safe.

The rectangle on SSEC

2010-09-20T23:15:00.004+08:00

It has been a while since I looked at SSEC. My ast check was that it should be heading south, it did but not as south as I expected it to be.

Fig 1 SSEC Daily Chart

A look at the chart today, I see that SSEC has been congesting for quite a while. the congestion leads to the formation of a rectangle. The measurement of the pattern means an objective of 2,840.

On the other hand, if we are to see this as a double top reversal, which is possible. It should be heading for 2,420.

So what would it be? Both indicators are at the bottom and trending back up with the chart near the lower envelop of the rectangle. My guess is that SSEC is going to bounce tomorrow.

STI moving up....

2010-09-20T22:51:00.002+08:00

In the first place, I won't say it is spectacular, because it is quite dull today. In fact, unconciously somewhere I am expecting some form of correction.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

The way I see it, both indicators are stagnant, they can't determine it should go up or down. In both cases, they are quite toppish if you ask me. While this is so, I feel that there are still some rooms for it to head up.

As it has broken the previous high, I draw a Fibonacci projection base on the point of penetration. The closest 23.6% resistance of the projection is 3,141. I guess there is a chance of STI hitting this height, that is if its indicators do not break downward.

The support on the other hand is located at 3,043.

Trouble with Wave Count on STI

2010-09-17T23:47:00.003+08:00

As the title suggest, I am having some issue with wave count on STI. This is not the first time I make amendment to STI's wave count, and I am looking forward for this to be the last.

The trouble with wave count on STI lies in its not very clear representation on the counter waves.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

The first problem is the development between July to November last year. It is a counterwave but the extend of time needed to complete this wave makes me feel that it is a 4th wave. The other issue is the development between January to May 2010. This is a major counterwave. However, base on record, it is common to have the B wave overshoot A. The magnitude of the move is definitely greater than the 4th wave mentioned earlier.

I sense something wrong with the count but it does take the latest move of STI for me to further convince me with a recount. The latest move is a 5 wave pattern that goes higher than previous peak, this should not happen in a counterwave.

So after the recount, the scenario is much better. Now it shows that STI is on the 5th wave. Base on Fibonacci projection, it should meet resistance at 23.6% Fib projection @ 3,297. The support would be its previous high of 3,037.

An up-date on USD

2010-09-15T22:45:00.004+08:00

It has been a while since my last up-date on USD. While it has come down, it was still hovering above 13,460 during my last look. I was hoping that this level would be its lowest before it rebound.

A look at USD vs SGD today mainly and I am rather disappointed. It broke through the 13,460 support level which is now its resistance. Its present level is 13,325. The most important question for me now is, "will it fall further?"

Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

There are 2 signs that I see is encouraging. First of all, the final move lately shows a 5 wave movement downward which could signify a completion of a single move. What's more, we are dealing a counter wave, of which the final wave is a 5-wave movement.

Looking at the indicators, while USD has reached a new low, the same can't be said for both Stochastic and RSI. They are potentially signs of divergence. However, this still need to be confirmed.

If I use Fibonacci projection on the downward movement, it would be supported at its 23.6% projection value of 13,034. Now 13,460 has become the resistance.

A few days break and STI broke 3,043...

2010-09-15T21:53:00.003+08:00

It has been quite a while since I last went back to Malaysia, so I took the opportunity of Hari Raya long weekend to drive my family back to KL for the weekend.

We set out very early in the morning at around 5:30AM hopefully to escape the possible traffic jam. Surprisingly the custom was nearly empty when we crossed at 6:30AM. It was only after we crossed the custom that we saw a slight build up of traffic.

The trip this time was different. My parents joined membership to Grand Millenium Hotel and we got a free stay for one day. Finally after close to 10 years of marrying to me, my wife finally got to walk at Bukit Bintang and Time Square. Certainly it was quite embarassing for her when her colleagues talked about their trip to KL when she who married someone from KL even stepped out of the residential area. The other malls that she has visited were Parvillion and Mid Valley.

While she got to walked at Time Square, it was rather disappointing because the place was so messy. We used to dislike Parvillion as we have been there for quite many times, a visit to Time Square certainly made us appreciate Parvillion more.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I just got to look at STI today after 2 more days of rest from my trip. While I anticipate the possibility of STI hitting previous high, it is quite a surprise to me that it over shoot 3,043! Definitely this makes the wave count more complex than before and I would have to temperary forgo this tactic.

Instead I have to rely on the indicators again. In my earlier entry, I noted Stochastic has shown divergence which is early sign for reversal. Now, RSI has joined in with the samw warning, to me, RSI is more prudent than Stochastic.

Should STI continue to shoot up, its next resistance base on Fibonacci projection is around 3,140, support for the time being remains at 3,043. However, if it fall further, it will be supported by the 21 days moving average at 2,991.

SM Goh's comment for "illustrative purpose" only.

2010-09-08T22:43:00.004+08:00

Just came across this article after my last entry, it gives me the feeling that his words hold no relevance at all.

My guess is that his existence in politics is to justify legitimacy of MM post.

Converting 10% of PRs to citizens "not a target": SM Goh's press secretary
By Joanne Chan Posted: 08 September 2010 1912 hrs

SINGAPORE: The press secretary to Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong has said that the figure mentioned by Mr Goh about Permanent Residents who will be asked to take up citizenship, was only for "illustrative purposes".

Mr Ho Tong Yen was replying to queries following Mr Goh's comments at a dialogue session at Marine Parade on Monday.

Mr Goh was reported as saying that the government might approach ten percent of PRs in Singapore to take up citizenship and if they did not do so, their PR status would not be renewed.

Mr Ho said that the Senior Minister was making a general observation to illustrate the point that the government would be managing the inflow of PRs and that some would be encouraged to become citizens.

The figure of ten percent which Mr Goh gave was "not a target", and it is also not the case that all PRs who turn down the offer of Singapore citizenship would not have their PR status renewed, said Mr Ho.

The government will continue to review and refine its policies to ensure that those who have PR status are an asset to Singapore's society and that those who are given citizenship are, in addition, assessed to be committed in their allegiance to Singapore, added Mr Ho.

- CNA/ir

Cosco update

2010-09-08T21:03:00.003+08:00

There was this hot topic on forum today about SM Goh's comment that the Garment will strategise to get 500,000 PR holders to convert to Citizen. Almost immediately many forumers fell in to criticise on those PRs who have been holding on to the status for many year without conversion. Some even went on to suggest that the PRs should even pay an annual fee for protection.

To me, what SM Goh said is nothing but diversion of the immigration heat wave that they are experiencing from the people. This reminds me of Rome Colosseum. the very purpose it was built is to entertain people so that they are diverted from the political incompetence of the Government then.

The question is, does changing these 500,000 people into citizen solve the problem of over crowding? It does not, because that is not where the problem lies. SM Goh's comment shows that he simply failed to understand the most crucial issue here. Singapore is over crowded with the facilities and opportunity has been spread thin. Changing 1/2 of them to PR simply made this 250,000 permanant. One might think that you would at least reduece the number by 250,000. That is however not the case,they simply reverted to stay on unsing Employment passes. You will still have these 500,000 here in this country.

What I see here is the Garment not able to tackle the problem they have created through indiscriminant reception of foreigners into this country. In the earlier period, receiving PR-ship was a prestidge because you must qualified with certain qualities such as academic grades before you are even "invited" to apply for PR. Now even prostitute and bus drivers can get PR-ship.

The Garment has done a few major screw ups and they are finding it an up-hill task now to even get the people's support. They are also spooked by what happened in Malaysia and they know that they are next. SM Goh's comment is a desperate ploy to grab support on the ground level.

So what's the forumers so happy about? They have just been conned into thinking the Garment has responded to them when in fact the Garment is trying to make this thread of their permanant. Even if he meant what he said, I doubt that he has the power to do so, he is afterall quite a paper tiger at this point of time.

Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

Coming back to the chart, I was not able to get into the blog web yesterday because of heavy traffic sometime at 10:30PM. I wanted to type something on Cosco because I found it quite interesting.

I have earlier noted that it was in the middle of B wave, by earlier august, rightfully the B wave should have completed and C should have started. However, C wave did not materialise. instead it is on extended B with completion of x and then a second a wave.

At present, both indicators are coinciding with the completion of a wave and I suspect b wave is starting. The 21 days moving average is supporting at 1.59 and I estimate it might fall to 1.50.

A Dow Jones up-date

2010-09-06T23:19:00.004+08:00

I have received an SMS from a friend this morning (actually he sent it during the weekend). He asked me to look into DJIA for him.

Fig 1 DJIA weekly chart

Actually I am a little uncertain at this moment because everything seems to be in the middle. Both Stochastic and RSI are half way down when they turn. I am also seeing a correction on Dow Jones itself, and I am referring to last week. It was very positive even with the negative news. There is also a resistance at 10,495 while the 21 weeks Moving Average is supporting at 10,333.

My suspicion at the moment is that Dow is on b wave of its down cycle, afterall, it is on the negative gradient of the Gann grid line. It may be having very limited up trend this week judging from how close it is to the resistance.

Fuyu Manufacturing

2010-09-02T00:00:00.003+08:00

To improve my sleep, I promised myself to sleep at 12:00AM tonight, it is past 12 now so I guess this is my last entry today.

Fig 1 Fuyu Manufacturing Daily Chart

I have been tempted to buy this counter the last few days because of its pull back from its top of 0.155. Yet, I can't make myself to long this counter. Both its indicators are showing divergence on the last to tops. Further more, the RSI is reaching the trend resistance.

While Fuyu has stayed at 0.12 for the last 2 days, I was really reluctant to buy. I suspect that it may not go far in the short term.

Genting @ 1.80

2010-09-01T23:36:00.003+08:00

I have been quite letargic lately. I have seen the sensei and he mentioned its because of the humidity and gave me some medicine. So far it has not been much effective. I myself suspect that it was contributed by my "waking" sleep. Been on work pressure lately and there are again human issue. May be I am on the verge of depression again. I had better get my psycholigical balancing check.

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

I also want to write about Genting today. Everyone know by today that it has gone up to SGD1.80 and probably no point saying that I have seen this last week. However, I think it is important to make this entry.

I saw the potential of this counter last week when it broke the fibonacci retracement line with gaps and congestion at 1.50-1.60 level. The break up was unexpected. But what follows should. Because of the gap, there is a measurement and I noted an objective of 1.80.

The problem was that I did not act on it, mainly because the regional market including the DJIA is moving south. While STI was out of phase, there is a fear that it might eventually fall in line. I have decided to let it go even when it could reach 1.80.

A call from my friend made me think. He often called me asking things about stock market and he has recently resigned from his job. Out of bordem, he set up a mind set of taking the stock market as a computer game and he ended up earning from the US market. While we were talking I noted Genting broke out at 1.60 and was at 1.65, I even told him that the target was 1.80. He commented," And you didn't buy? Why am I who is probably an outsider trying to earn money from the market while you know where it is going but does not want to gain from it?"

I think a part of me is in fear of failure and I have not yet overcome this obstacle. It is time that I do so.

While Genting is up at SGD1.80 and some even boast about it hitting SGD2.00. I ave my doubt at the moment. There is a divergence on the volume. On its first break out, there was a surge in volume, yet the latest break out the market has not shown the same enthusiastic. This also coincide with both Stochastic and RSI at the top.

There could be a little more that Genting should go, some where 1.85 base on one of my measurement of the swing move.

HSI, SSEC, Nikkei225 and STI and patellar Tendinitise

2010-08-27T22:57:00.005+08:00

I woke up at 5:30AM this morning with cruciating pain on my knee cap. I was already having this mild pain the last few day, it was discomforting but not to the extend of immobilization. It was different this morning, more likely the result of constant kneeling during yoga session last night. I could not afford to bend my knee without inflicting jaw biting pain.

First thing I did was to create an ice pack to relief the pain, I recall the doctor recomendation of ice pack was the best way to reduce inflamation, and I did just that.It help to some extend and I still needed to endure the pain every time I move my joints even by a 5 degree angle.

I finally saw the doctor by 9:30AM. I was expecting some outcome like artritise or uric acid as the cause of my pain. But Patellar Tendinitise really came as a surprise to me. It seems that I have a mild injury on the muscle attached to my knee cap ( the triangular muscle right below the knee cap ), and the kneelings done last night was the catalyst for the inflamation. He told me that the problem will last for about 2 weeks. There is a quick way of injection which will allow the inflamation to subside in a few days time or the long way of taking medication ( mainly pain killers ). I chose the long way.

Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

So much for the Patellar Tendinitise, let's look at HSI. I have earlier created a narrow channel which HSI would be moving for a counter wave. Well, it is likely to have completed the d wave and now fulfilling the e. This also coincide with the downward movement of both Stochastic and RSI.

If e wave is true, its objective would be around 18,280 before it reverses with C wave of target 30,1265 base on a swing move. It seems like HSI is not really in that bad of a shape afterall, that is if my judgement is right.

Fig 2 SSEC Weekly Chart

I have in my earlier entry identified the symmatrical triangle on SSEC and that it is in progress of fulfilling its destination of 2,043. It is still half way there, pausing at the moment.

However, the indicators are again turning south, what's more, there is a small divergence on RSI. This also coincide with the chart reaching the apex of the Gann grid line, crossing from positive to negative gradient. SSEC is going to continue its journey.

For the moment I am having another thought. The short pause of SSEC created a possible scenary of a swing move, this would lead the index further south to 1,818. Seems like China is not really doing well.

Fig 3 Nikkei 225

Nikkei 225 shows quite a clear picture. A 5 wave (abcde) pattern forming an up-ward wedge, broke downward and heading for 8,359. It paused briefly (a few months) probably due to political uncertainty then. I am sparing a thought of using the swing move measurement again. If apply to Nikkei 225, its next target should be 7,701.

So far things aren't that bad even with 7,701. Its previous low was 7,000 in end 2008. In addition, both RSI and Stochastic is bottoming, of course it may be possible that these 2 could stay for a longer period of time, but they are not giving much leeway for new lows.

Fig 4 STI Weekly Chart

If I am so negative about the above 3 indices, what do I make out of STI?

The interesting thing is that the indicators (Stohastic and RSI) as bottoming and turning (RSI). However, I feel that this is more as a correction than reversal. For one the indicators movements are more aggreesive than the chart itself.

So far I have seen no clear pattern for measurement, so base on its resistance, STI may reach 2,947. In addition, its 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 2,894.

So far, STI seems to be out of phase with the other 3 markets which are exhibiting more negativity. However, it is unlikely to diverge from the rest of the world, it would eventually have to follow.

Cosco proceeding to C wave downward

2010-08-26T23:51:00.003+08:00

Fig 1 Cosco Corp Weekly Chart

I am using the weekly chart to get a BIGGER picture on Cosco.

Looking at the indicators, they are actually 1/2 way down, so Cosco itself should be heading south, not only that, I suspect it might accelerate.

The wave count sort of indicated an abcde completion of a B wave. C wave to follow, this coincide with the indication from the indicators.

There are 2 support levels base on the moving averages. The 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 1.505 while 55 weeks moving average at 1.433.

DJIA likely in C wave downward

2010-08-26T23:28:00.002+08:00

I originally wanted to write about DJIA in my last blog,but it was inappropriete. I have decided to start a new entry for this.

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

As I read on the Dow, both the Stochastic and RSI are heading south but at the same time is at the bottom of the scale. This is normally the extreme end indicating over sold situation. However, it is also possible that the indicators will STAY for a while. Now even if the indicators rebound, it is possible that gains from indicators does not reflect that of the Dow itself. The indicators can move all the way up but Dow move marginally.

If I look at the pattern itself. Dow is presently following a very steep negative gradient of the Gann Grid line, it is likely to be travelling at great momentum downward.

Further to that, it is possible that Dow has completed a 3-wave B and now fulfilling C. If I consider Dow on a Swing move, its objective is 9,211. Its support is between 9,614 to 9,895. Resistance wise, 10,495.

A disaster due to incompetence

2010-08-26T23:06:00.004+08:00

The big news during the last few days has to be the hostage situation in Philippine where a group of Hong Kong tourists were involved. In the end, 9 hostages died and the gunman was killed. It is sad but surely such situation, one can't rule out a certain death and sacrifices, can we?

However, looking at the way the Philippines police, or their SWAT team work in video above, it made my blood boils. The elite team in Philippine police force turn out to be a bunch of over weight clowns, creating blunders after blunders in the rescue attempt. In all the hostages were actually unecessary victims.

Worse still, the Filippino's behaviours on the aftermath really makes me think if they are barbarions in a civilized world, such lack of empathy to the victims and the embarassment of their own incompetence. The crime scene became a local tourist attraction where police, nurses and students pose for photography, the President was no where to be found during the crisis and refuse to be involve, he smirk at crime scene and even dare to claim that he was outrage.

To rub salt to the wounds, the morgue allowed the reporters to enter the premises and even open up the coffins so that the photographer can have a feeding frenzy on the deads. Is this their way of treating the deads?

This is appalling! If I am from Hong Kong the first thing is to make sure they understand the seriousness of their behaviour. Hong Kong should send all the maids back to Philippine. I know it is pitiful to the maids, but if they want to blame, it would be their fellow countryman.

Wheelock head and shoulders in the making

2010-08-23T23:29:00.004+08:00

I was reading the forum today when I came across this article of which a Food Blogger went to a restaurant, gave his 3 friends a treat, then told the restaurant he did not want to pay for the SGD400+ meal because he was a Food Blogger.

His photos are now posted on the few blogs I visited and he is notably a young chap with hormone inbalance. Seriously what in his right mind think that being a blogger on food entitles him to free lunch? Exactly what value does his blog (I remember it is ladyironchef.sg or something, kind of sissy name for a male, don't you think? )would bring to the restaurant? How much publicity would he give for that lunch? I am not even sure if anyone is reading his blog, I for one sure ain't.

Well, for one thing, his blog is now overwelmed and people are flocking there and due to that, the blog is now down. So may be he has his wish come true after all, he is now notorious.

Fig 1 Wheelock Daily Chart

I was going through the charts today and stopped at Wheelock. Base on the pattern that I saw, I can't help but to find that it is very like a head and shoulders in the making, don't you think so?

If this is true, Wheelock is going down soon. At the moment, I won't want to do any measurement yet. may be after it crosses the neckline.

My senior engineers

2010-08-21T00:48:00.003+08:00

I have this lady Engineer who came from India. She is here because her son is here working and studying as an Engineer at the same time. My engineer is really good at her work, she is meticulous in her design, mildly slow but ensure product is safe for release. She even took part in design of a rocket while in her home land. I have great appreciation for her talent, and I felt that her skill set qualifies her to be a senior Engineer, I pushed for her promotion.

However, her talent does not come without trouble. She is a difficult person to work with, she has very strong pride and she is ambitious. She is insatiable in being managed and she as greed in power. She disregard the unspoken rules and practise of the company and lacks the understanding of human relationship. Her nassicistic tendency lead her to think others should behave the way she think they should. She is stubborn and refuse to listen to the opinion of others. She has not even think if her action cause irritation to others and eventually sabotage her in return.

Now as I am in the process of working on the reform of my team, it makes me worry because I am sending my seniors out to meet customers, create awareness and bring back design opportunities. I have witness a field application Engineer in the past, he has high opinion of himself and much less to the lesser mortal. He even dare to call his customer stupid up front. Eventually he was forced to resign. This Senior Engineer of mine has a similar traits and I am in serious doubt that she actually qualifies to meet customers.

Seriously, I am having second thought about my push to promote her. Could the promotion have pushed her ego further? I do not want to think that I might eventually regret my decision.

Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

Looking at the HSI weekly chart, it is quite interesting because it is working within a band indicated by the 2 red lines. I have marked an alphabet on each counter wave and I would expect one more "e" to come. All the counterwave are of 3 wave patterns therefore a high likeihood for this to realize.

An alternate count would be the present pull back is a 4th wave of the "d", there will be a fifth which will break the envelop resistance. On both account, this will entitle HSI to short further north because the pattern change from a double-tripple top to a swing move, HSI might climb another 10,000 points as a result.

I met a person at China Town ...

2010-08-21T00:03:00.004+08:00

After a customer visit yesterday, it was rather late to head back to the office.So I decided to head into town and fetch my wife.

On reaching town area, I ended up too early and there was 1/2 an hour to spend. The next thing I did was to went to China Town. There was this newspaper stand at China town manned by an old lady, I guess she was about 70 or so. While buying the newspaper, I struck out a conversation with her ( that happened to be one of my special skills ). I was surprise that she did not own the newspaper stand, in fact, she was employed.

Further chat with her revealed that she has been working in NTUC, resigned 3 times and was requested to go back. She admitted that as age caught up with her, it became more difficult to work fast. She decided to leave NTUC some time after her fourth return.

She also mentioned of a manager there who was very particular about cleaniness, unfortunately the work location was where all the grossaries, meats and fishes were process, one hell of a dirty surrounding. Yet he insisted on keeping the place clean, so after some goods were dragged across the place every time, she has to clean and mop.

She also mentioned about her present job. I asked her why does it not belong to her. She said that her employer was the one who went sourcing for the books, magazines and newspapers, it would be quite impossible if she is to do it. The employer,I guess, also hire drivers to deliver the goods to each marked spots of his territory.

Her pay was SGD18 per day, no CPF, no benefit of a standard employee. Every morning, she has to make her way from Yishun all the way down to China Town paying retiree fare of about SGD1.60 both ways. Breakfast of about SGD2.00, lunch of SGD3.50. All these come up to SGD7.10. Her take home amount is about SGD10.90. Assuming around SGD100 for utility bills per month, a further SGD3.30 is deducted, leaving SGD7.60.

Assuming she works 7 days per week, per month's saving is about SGD228. Minus misc including hair cuts, doctors visit, that practically leave her with almost nothing! She is practically living off back to back.

I asked her is her son help out with her cost of living, she responded that it is already difficult for him to support his own family, let alone helping her. Neither was there any help from the government.

I admire her because of her will to live on, she would continue to sit there under an umbrella in front of the MRT entrance everyday selling the papers. There is probably no probability of a pay rise and should and problem falls on her, there is almost no chance that anyone can support her.

We talked for about 15 minutes and she was enthuastic to tell me her life story, it would seem to me that it has been a long time since someone listened to her hardship. I can't help but wonder, she is just one of the many newspaper seller around Singapore and these people are living on the edge of poverty everyday. Yet, there is actually no set up on Government part to ensure the welfare of all these people. Well, probably there are but have the Government made known to the public on where they can find help?

As far as I know, the Government is willing to throw SGD400Mil for a gamble on Singapore's fame, yet how much has been allocated to support the less fortunate? Is glory worth so much more than to ensure the happiness of the people?

As far as I know, Butan was a country where the king there decided that his people's happiness would be the most important, that is why even though the lifestye is quite backward and there is a great potential for tourism, the king and the government there simply refuse to oen up and allow influx of tourist to retain their way of living.

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

As I come back to my chart, I recall during my restart that my focus should be on higher time frame. It might have been blurred through time and I ended up looking a each new bar everyday. May be it is because I pushed myself on writing blog entries. I really need to take a step back from what I am doing now.

STI as I see it should be on continuation downward as far as the weekly chart is concerned. Certainly Stochastic has turned downward while RSI might have slowed down probably indicating a correction (upward) is coming.

Another interesting observation is the 14 weeks RSI which is noticibly having 2 consecutive divergences through the 3 peaks. It is definitely strong indication that a big one is eventually coming.

I have not seen any confirm pattern as far. The chart will really have to break through some thing either up or downward. The support base on 21 weeks Moving Average is 2,898 while resistance 3,043, the previous high.

I haven't done any up-date since...

2010-08-17T22:57:00.003+08:00

It has really been a while since my last up-date. Seriously I feel a little bad about this, I made a promise to myself to keep up with my blogging and yet seems to slagging.

At the same time, I find it hard a times to write something about the market. The market itself is just like me, slagging. I recall my last entry that STI is going to fall, and it did eventually. My prediction is about a few days too early.

Life has been relatively hectic recently, I was very busy with event management, right after a Techday in Vietnam, I rushed into presentation and sample preparation for the Board Of Directors (BOD) meeting. My team is supposed to show case the fruits of our hard work to these 12 or so personnel from the main office.

We did quite a lot from the kits, to decoration and the presentation slides. And you know what? They just took less than 10 minutes to go through the whole thing! Anyway, next, it will be another round of Techday, this time in Malaysia. I am not going to travel, instead, I am sending my engineer there. I just wonder if it would be a success or butcher?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis, I can say that STI is at the bottom mainly because the RSI itself is at the bottom and probably working on a divergence. The uncertainty is that it is cutting across the Gann Gridopen field. This normally would indicate a flat result, it would neither be up or down but simply flat.

Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart

While Daily indicators are at the bottom, the weekly ones are at the top. It does signifies a downward pressure. So on a larger time scale, STI is coming down but it is going up in the short term.

Well, nothing much that I can say about this index any more, let's see how it goes.

Is STI reversing?

2010-08-03T23:17:00.003+08:00

I am really slacking recently on my chart reading, not to mention taking much effort in up-dating my blog. The reason is that for a short period of time, there is another event happening now which is of much thrill, registration for P1! Yes, my daughter is going into P1 next year and I am registering her into the best school that I can affort.

In fact, I got her into the school which both me and my wife agreed upon, it is a SAP school. So you might wonder why am I still looking at registration result if my daughter is already in?

Well, I got my daughter in through phase 2B about last week. This week is the registration for phase 2C, as my daughter is in K2 right now, I also get to know of some of her friends, and of course parents of her friends. I also get to know their ideal school of choices. It turns out those schools are not easy to get in at all. One of the parents is aiming for Maha Bodhi which by tradition with oversubscription of 120-127% and requires balleting even for less than 1KM. The other parent is looking at Rosyth, which by now is oversuscribed by 282%, chance of getting in is close to 3 to 1. Both staying right opposite the schools.

I worry for these parents, I got to know them even though not in depth. They are also father and mother of a child and they want the best for their kids. I can feel their disappointment should they failed to let their child get the school of choice.

I am a father myself and right before knowing the success of my application, I too feared I might have let my daughter down. I remember my daughter ever asked me, "baba, are going to get me a good school?"

I remember the mother who wanted her child to get into Maha Bodhi told me that her daughter also asked her, "what if I can't get into Maha Bodhi?" Imagine the fear of disappointing the one you love. The stress of making it falls upon the parents whom for certain part need to depend on luck.

So every night, instead of charts, I am looking at the registration result first from Teletext, then http://www.kiasuparents.com/. Seriously, I am pretty worried for the girl who aims for Rosyth, according to the teacher, she is really an intelligent girl, it would be a waste if her application fails.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I have skipped the weekend on charts, and when I am back looking at STI, it went further up, not only that it penetrated the previous high of 3,037 and went as high as 2,039 today.

However, the indicators are giving further warning through confirmation of divergence. I am afraid it is turning as we speak.

The support for STI is 2,947.

Something interesting on Cosco

2010-07-29T00:04:00.004+08:00

I have not up-date my Cosco for a while. the last time I checked on Cosco, it was doing the c wave. It is very different when I look today.

Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

Cosco has created 2 patterns, a triangle with objective at 1.75 and a flag in progress, if completed, its objective is around 1.76.

So I guess is a good choice for the time being.Stop loss would be around 1.50.

I am pretty sick of PowerPoint....

2010-07-28T22:42:00.003+08:00

I have been spending my last few weeks working on my presentations for product promotion and for Board of Directors meeting. While it helps a lot in my creativity, I am growing sick of seeing Powerpoint by now. Come to think of it, Powerpoint and me have come a long way since I started my career in product marketing. It has been more than 10 years since I first touched on Power point and frankly, I am very sick of see Powerpoint right now. I just wonder if the same applies to marriage?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

So if I am looking at STI everyday and predicting its next move, the same disgust will apply. So today, I will record something different.If you look at the chart itself, you will notice that the uptrend wave pattern seems to mirror that of the downtrend. Both started with a 3 waves down with a relatively complex B, and ending with a 5wave C. Well, technically we can't say that the present up-trend is over but counting the C wave, it should be soon enough.

Dow on 3 white soldiers?

2010-07-28T00:01:00.004+08:00

I have a brief look at Dow, just like STI I am getting a little confused by its divergences. On one hand, Dow has 3 white bars moving up, this is a three white soldiers with indication of bullish tendency. On the other hand, the indicators are peaking off. RSI is more prominent with signs of momentum slow down.

Fig 1 Dow Daily Chart

Another sign comes from the Gann Grid lines which will be resisting further advances. There is a high chance that Dow is correcting today.

Loads and loads of work

2010-07-27T22:30:00.004+08:00

I think it is not the first time I complaint about not up-dating my blog. I have been very busy lately. Since I can't depend on other departments to help on product promotion, I have to convert my engineers to do so. Knowing how engineers think, I find myself needing to convert their mindset from an engineer to a sales and marketing.

I have to create th presentation for them to conduct seminars, product promotion, and even train them on how to give a speech. The worst thing is that they are acting like Engineers. So what do I mean.

If you are a Sales and Marketing, you are always putting the customers first because you know they bring in revenues. Engineers on the other hand do not have this mindset, there is a certain pride in them that they will think what the customers should be getting. The presentations from the Engineers are very technical and lacks juice to tell the customers, "here, work with me and you get a better result." I think the audience will fall asleep during the lecture.

While I feel bad about stopping on my entries. There are still some good out of it. For a start there has been some development since my last entry.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI has broken the upper resistant envelop and actually reached the minimum objective of the rectangle. It went as high as 3,991 today before retreating to below the 2,985 objective.

At the same time, it does not look good on both RSI and Stochastic. While RSI has not really shown any divergence, Stochastic did. RSI is also observed to be relatively weak in climbing higher. So are we seeing a retracement soon? On the early stage, I will think so. The break out from the rectangle seems to complete a 5 wave pattern for the move since 30th June. If it is going up it is relatively limited.

While saying that, there is another pattern on STI that I have missed, since I believed so strongly that STI is going for second dip. the move between 4th May till 7th July 2010, STI created a reverse head and shoulder. This reversal pattern result in an minimum objective of 3,131.

So what should I make out of this? A correction is right round the corner, but it is more like a retracement to the neck line presently at 2,879. The completion of the retracement will lead to STI moving to the next level at 3,131. How accurate is this prediction? Is there any discripency?

The only discripency is that the move from 25th May till 21st June being a 3 wave pattern. That constitute a wave A. This followed by a 3-wave B retracement before completing a 5-wave C retracement. This is the alternate view. If this is true, then it is possible that we are at the end of a B wave. If this is so, the next wave C will lead STI to a level of 2,600 base on a swing move.

Some times life's sucks, isn't it? There are always 2 ways to look at the situation and you need to choose which one you trust more. But then both readings have one thing in common, a correction is near.

The congestion band

2010-07-21T00:05:00.003+08:00

Life has not been that dull these few days. I am motivating my R & D Engineers to become a Sales and Marketing, I am embedding suggestions into them on learning to read customer's mindset. The thing is that I am converting my R & D into a Technical Sales team. Its funny that a Perceiver like me is very interested in organizing strategies. It is like going to war and you need to plan your tactics to over come the enermies.

I have not been up-dating the blog the last few days, I was really, really tired, my eyes could hardly open while reading the charts, and yes, I still read the charts even though I did not do any blog entry.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

What I can say is that STI is in a congestion band, a small one which looks more like a mini rectangle. There are 2 possible outcome to this, one is that it breaks up-ward with objective of 2,985. If it breaks downward, the objective would be 2,904. There are 2 levels that one needs to monitor, support at 2,930 and resistance of 2,958. These are the breaking points of the rectangle ( or tripple top, a small one ).

So far I am having divergence on the RSI, downward. Therefore STI is likely to move downward mid term.

My take on STI

2010-07-17T00:24:00.002+08:00

I believe I have lapsed for another 2 days on my blog. There is nothing much to write right now, market is extremely dull.

I have a check on CNA forum today, some forumers commented that STI is very strong! If it is, I don't see it. Probably they are referring to STI in the green even though world market started falling. Well, haven't they considered STI to be lagging?

Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

On the weekly basis, both indicators are still rising but with limited up-side. At the same time, STI itself is reaching the Fibonacci Arc, something is going to happen, I believe the Fibonacci Arc will trigger the STI to tur south.

Fig STI Daily Chart

On the daily basis, even when STI is up, it continues to trade in a tight band. Both indicators seems to be making the second top, but even though STI reached a new peak today (as compared to 2 days ago), the indicators has not surpassed the previous high. So is this a potential divergence?

If I am to analysis the situation, this is not a time to go in nor come out of Sg market. It is still a hold.

2010-07-14T23:24:00.002+08:00

I have not been up-dating much on this blog lately, partly because I am troubled at work. The projects quantity are getting low and there is no venue to bring in new projects from my originally intended source.I am in fact in process of restrategising my team's formation and converting R & D into Marketing. Good thing is that most of my team is willing to work with me to get new projects in.

The other part of my hessitation is mainly because I am in doubt of the present market situation.STI has been going up, but it continues to trade in a very tight band everyday, even after gapping up in the morning.

The gapping is mainly due to influence from over night market performance of Dow Jones. Trading within a tight band on the other hand signifies a lack of traders participation. Many are on the side lines and I think they are not convinced of the market neither.

Today for example has seen Government announcing a GDP growth of 13-15%. This is supposed to be GREAT news and yet it still fail to excite the market. Something is wrong somewhere, I just don't quite pin point the location.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

From the chart of STI, it can be seen that both indicators are very toppish. While RSI still wanting to climb higher, Stochastic has already started falling. STI has climbed just above the resistance of 2,947 and ended up higher at 2,952. The next level of resistance would probably be at 3,037. Support wise I refer to the 21 days moving average at 2,870.

What's become of USD vs SGD?

2010-07-10T21:55:00.005+08:00

I don't recall when my last up-date on USD vs SGD was. All I remember was that I was relatively bullish on this forex. So what has become of USD vs SGD?

Fig 1 USDvSGD Weekly Chart

Actually, I find it a little disgusting when looking at USD on weekly basis. It has made attempts to move up but every time it did that, it retraced. It went as low as 13,647, near the lowest point of 13,460. For the time being, both RSI and Stochastic are coming lower and are already in the southern half of earth.

The only good thing that I see is that it is presently located at the positve gradient of Gann Grid lines, there is still a chance that it will go higher from here. The 21 weeks moving average is resisting at 13,941 while the 89 weeks at 14,227. With uncertainty on the weekly chart, it is thus worthwhile to look at it on monthly time frame.

Fig 2 USDvSGD Monthly Chart

The monthly chart on the other hand is portraying another story. By zooming out the chart, USD seems to be showing a bottom formation in progress. It is either a double
or tripple bottom, which is it I am not sure. What I am sure of is divergence is seen on Stochastic while RSI is having higher highs. I feel that the down trend is really limited as the Bollinger Band is narrowing which created a scenary of USD vs SGD trading at a narrow band.

I am still having confidence that USD has limited down trend with much potential for reversal. It is however too early at this point to determine its objective because the pattern has not yet established. We will probably have to wait longer for the flower to be full bloomed.

DJIA going to correct

2010-07-10T21:29:00.002+08:00

My last up-date on STI indicated uncertainty on my part. This is mainly because STI is at a cross road to me. While there are a few factors on chart influencing its direction I was not so sure which would be the one.

At the moment, the one thing that seems to drive STI is the Dow, STI is following Dow's up-trend to push itself up. With Dow's help it has now surpassed 2,900 mark. So it worth while to look at Dow for a while.

DJIA Weekly Chart

Base on the indicators Stochastic and RSI, Dow ia certainly on the up trend on weekly basis. Both indicators are at the bottom and with divergence. Its 21-week Moving Average is resisting at 10,322 while 89-week moving average supporting at 10,123. One thing to note is the trend resistance line presently located at 10,323. So it seems that while it is gearing for up trend, there are some factors preventing its progress.

Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

Moving onto the daily chart,it seems to be telling a different story. Stochastic and RSI are toppish, especially for Stochastic. RSI is tapering off. This is much in contrast to a few days back when Dow was only on verge of reversal.

Additionally, Dow is also reaching the apex of the Gann Grid lines transfering from positive to negative gradient. My guess is, Dow is reversing again.

So if Dow is on continuation mark on weekly while reversal mark on daily, Dow should be on a correction on the coming week. At the same time, I feel that Dow might not go very far this time round, especially when the indicators move too fast. It is giving little leeway for Dow to progress. A correction would do Dow much good.

Is STI on continuation uptrend?

2010-07-08T22:02:00.004+08:00

I was quite positve that STI would be coming down today. I mentioned in my entry last night of the various reason that STI should be coming down. So it was to my surprise that it went up 36 points today. 36 points is quite a large step.

So the market went against my judgement, but then as my teacher said, it is not the market that is wrong, it is me who is in the wrong, because the market is always right. I was wrong in my prediction last night.

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I think the very thing that make me wrong is the US market. At the time of my prediction, I have ignored the sign from Dow Jones of which the indicators are at the bottom. This is in contrast to the indicators on STI. When I looked at the Dow last night, a question popped into my mind, "how would a rising Dow creates a descending STI?" Well, if it should, it did not manage last night.

fig 2 STI Daily Chart

So what would STI be doing from now? I am not sure, at least for tomorrow. While STI shot up, it is uncertain of its present position, creating a spinning top. Due to its gap up, it is also a potential evening star. In addition, it is resisted at the negative gradient of Gann Grid lines.

While it has penetrated the previous high, the level of penetration is very mild and requires tomorrow to confirm.

My guess is that it will be a retracement tomorrow. If this is the case, we would be seeing yet another reversal downwards. While it has gone up quite a bit today, I still believe that it is on reversal. The only confirmation other wise would be STI moving higher still tomorrow.

Oh, lazy me.....

2010-07-07T21:56:00.006+08:00

I have not been blogging for a while, I made a check on my last entry and it was dated 30th June 2010. Oh, lazy me.

I was quite reluctant to write my entries during the past week, partially because of the problem at work, partially due to a dull market with my already settled perception that market has already reversed but taking its time to come down. But the major reason is because of Criminal Minds, literally.

I have bought the DVDs for Criminal Minds recently and I fell in love with the series. It portray the one thing I find interesting about, serial killers. Yup! The show does nothing except a series of 45 minutes stories of the FBI Behaviour Analysis Unit profiling different types of serial killers, which happens to be one of my favourite interest.

Best of all, my wife was hooked on the series and watched it with me all night, except for tonight of course. Chasing the series has a toll on our energy level and both of us felt lacking in sleep each morning. So we decide to take a rest tonight, and guess what I am doing?

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I remember my last entry mentioned about STI reaching a point of potential continuation and if it crosses 2,890, a continuation is confirmed. Well, it didn't last week. and it is about to try (try) again this week.

However, my feel is that it will again fail. the RSI is turning south at this moment, adding to that, a Harami is formed today ( need confirmation ) with STI crossing from the positive to negative gradient of the Gann Grid. There seems to be more pressure for STI to head south.

I am betting STI will be going down tomorrow.At present the 21 and 89 days moving averages are supporting at 2,835. So we shall see.

Thrusting

2010-06-30T22:43:00.002+08:00

I did not pay much attention to the market today mainly because I am quite busy at work. Further more, with Dow down for 250 points, chances of opening gapped down is very high. Normally under such circumstances, charts will gapped down before recovers back.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

It is to my surprise that STI not only recovers but it managed to closed green. The amount of movement is almost the same as yesterday. In fact, it broke the resistance of the 89 days moving average at 2,834, closing at 2,835. So is this good news or bad?

The problem is here. The candlestick pattern is likely a thrusting formation, which means that this is a bearish continuation. It does however requires tomorrow to confirm the trend.

Genting is coming down

2010-06-29T23:35:00.003+08:00

In my last entry on Genting, I predicted that Genting would go to 1.16. Well, it did and it went higher still. Today, it went as high as 1.20. It is good in a sense because I am seeing a completion of C wave

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

The wave pattern of Genting is a little complex. In fact the whole wave have to start on 19th Jan 2010, of which Genting is at its peak of 1.30. There was definitely a 3 waves down completing A before a congestion and reversing in trend. The second set of wave B seems to me a complicated pattern of abcxabc with today as its peak.

It went the highest today, at the same time, Genting gives opportunity for the indicators to show some divergence, having said that, divergence has not completed, but I guess it is not far away.

In addition to what is said. The whole set up is probably a top formation with a double top. the second top is work in progress and additional indication of divergence.

For the time being, there are only signs of reversal and no solid proof of its objective.So we will have to pend for confirmation of the seriousness of this fall.

My unnecessary fear

2010-06-29T23:04:00.003+08:00

I accomplished quite a bit today. First rejected by new boss' suggestion for a meeting and lunch. Then I managed to clear a request for my team's involvement in a project with estimated quote and proposal. I have personal talks with all my engineers regarding their routines and see if any problem arises. I also completed a transaction by completing a delivery arrangement.

Surprisingly, you can arrange with a courier like DHL to go to a certain location abd pick up something, then deliver to the dewstination of your preference. I did just that through the internet. In this case, you don't even need to give the shipper ( a new word that I have learnt ) the account number in case they abuse the trust.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

The up trend I 1/2 expecting never come, it seems like my worry that it goes against my prediction is unnecessary. It did come close to breaking the resistance, though. The stochastic and RSI are now affirmative in pushing the STI down.

However, there is still a mild indeterminant right now, the bottom of today landed at the apex of Gann Grid. So there are chances that it might bounce up tomorrow clinching onto the positve gradient. So how likely is it? I think with the fall of Dow Jones tonight, STI is going to see lower opens and close tomorrow.

Well, the chart is also supported by its 21 days moving average at 2,826.

Speaking of which, when I look at Dow's chart, if I did not peak into today's performance, I might actually consider today's likelihood an up trend. This is because both its RSI and Stochastic is at the bottom, moving side way.

For the time being, Dow is supported at 9,895. However, as a golden cross is already completed. This support will be broken, may be not today but tomorrow.

I am deeply disturbed

2010-06-28T21:44:00.002+08:00

I have not been bloging much the last few days, partially because I went back to KL to be with my parents during the weekend and sadly, no WIFI for me!

The other part of it was that I am deeply disturbed. I am not sure if I have entry on the recent development in my organization, my boss decided to leave his position and he proposed my colleague to fill his place. Already at that point of time I knew it would only be a 50-50 chance of me getting that post. I was in fact a little hessitated to go for it anyway, I prefer major part of my duties to be back end.

On the surface, while there are some defficiency in him, I noted my colleague should have the calibre to handle the job, I told myself to accept his leadership. I did not profile him as it is not really my preference to do so on my ally.

Boy! Was I wrong.

The first thing he did was to offend everybody. He offended the Field Application Team by not only failed to acknowledging their contribution, he claimed they have not done enough. He offended the Design and Project Team by claiming their time to delvier was too long and he used the Field Application Team's revenue to leverage against the performance of the DPEs. He went a step further to make sure the DPEs report to him every Monday. On the sureface he claimed he wanted more understanding of the team, in fact, I can see that he has nothing except distrust to the team. No wonder everytime when vendors want WPG to help in design, the only thing he wanted to do was to out source.

He also offended me by making me swallow a 500K revenue knowing that I lead a design team with strong dependence on the Field Application Team for opportunity. The reason for this is that he knows a competitor would reject any design opportunity with less than 50K revenue and he wanted me to get 10 such projects. I only have one question for him: He led the Field Application Team for 4 years, has he ever once get his team to find one such single opportunity with 50K revenue?

The Sole purpose of the DPE establishment was exactly to suppliment the FAE to improve their performance. Yet, never once in his 4 years that he encourage his men to engage the DPE, ending up my team has to fend for their existence. The opportunities from the FAEs last year were less than 10 and 80% of them failed to realize. Even realise, it is less than 20K of revenue.

I am really surprise that he make decisions base on hearsay, not knowing how the competitor actually did with this criteria, or if he is comparing apple to apple. As far as I know no vendors really go and look for that competitor, they have been looking for my team to help on design matters! The funny thing is that I am not to use a single member of my team to help looking for opportunity, it will all have to come from the Field Application Team and I am to push the new FAE Manager to get result, gosh! I don't even know that I have been promoted to a rank higher than the FAE Manager, the last I know, the FAE Manager still reports to him, not me. What authority do I have?

Not only that, I have no idea where he harness such belief that Manager are not there to be liked and using this belief, he aimed to turn himself into a bastard. He claimed to place importance in revenue, yet he is telling everyone to turn away opportunities of less than 50K? Does he know the market at all after 4 years of being the FAE manager? One would really be laughing if he can find a local opportunity so BIG! I was also told to reject any opportunity less than 50K, that literally means every single project on my hand now, including those introduced by the vendors.

This reminds me of a director we used to have, his name was Damien. Damien was doing exact what this colleague of mine is doing right now, going around offending people. He left in a year's time because no one is willing to work with him, including those reporting to him.

At the end, I insisted on a conditional accpetance of this MBO (Management By Objective) because I would have to be God to make this work without a single commitement from his side to make changes. I am seriously doubtful by now if he is fit to run the department, especially when I know he already gave up on his own team since the end of last year.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

While I did not have access, I did downloaded by database right before I left for Malaysia and I manage to take a look at the market during the weekend. I have found that while STI was coming down the last few days of last week, someone were trying to push up the market, making it going higher at the end of the day.

The market today managed to go up for about 20 points, resulting in RSI reversing up a little. So is it going up or down? I am a little uncertain here. The only thing I know is that the previous high at 2,890 is crucial, breaking this points means it is heading for higher high. It is also approaching the positive gradient of the Gann Gird lines, so it is likely that the trend is again reverved upward for one last time.

The resaon for me to state this is that while the indicators are at the peak, there has been no divergence, this is uncommon in a daily chart.

Harami on STI

2010-06-22T22:22:00.003+08:00

I got my appraisal today by my new boss, past colleague. Not a pleasant one. Seriously, he is asking me to swallow the impossible. I don't know if he even consider me a threat. The thing is that he does not even understand me even after so many years of working together.*sigh*

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Back to more pleasant thing, STI is showing Harami! Not confirm yet, still need a down day tomorrow. There are few signs to support a down trend, RSI and Stochastic is reversing, negative Gann Grid Gradient, not to mention the crossing of the moving averages.

In addition, the chart should have completed a C wave with the rise yesterday ( it is a 5 wave pattern ).So the next step would be DOWN!!!!!

STI Monthly Chart

2010-06-19T16:54:00.003+08:00

While Dow Jones Monthly Chart only has divergence seen on Stochastic. the divergence indicators on STI monthly chart is even clearer.

Fig 1 STI Monthly Chart

Both the RSI and Stochastic not only created a divergence, they are already on their way down. It is presently pausing at a resistance point of 2,751. This resistance has been quite strong in the past stopping a few penetration from either side.

I guess once it penetrate the neckline, the next level of support would be at 2,521.

A look at DJIA weekly and monthly chart

2010-06-19T16:16:00.007+08:00

In my last entry of DJIA, I stated that it was in process of pattern formation, either a rectangle or a tripple bottom. I was wrong on both accounts, it was a double bottom, but measurement of its objective is the same as the tripple bottom.

The reason why I was wrong is because I assume at the point of analysis that there is one more leg down, which is base on assumed behaviour of a rectangle (abcde wave pattern). The up-trend thus came earlier than I thought.

Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

Today, I forgo the daily chart to look at a higher time frame, the weekly chart. What hits me is the completion of a 5-wave up and a single wave down. The behaviour of the single wave down seems to contain a mini-three waves pattern. Thus I would suspect that this is only the beginning of the counter wave. We are probably in process of the B wave formation.

If base on mesurement from the daily chart analysed earlier with a double bottom of objective 10,878, it coincide with the resistance that I have placed in the area. This is very close to a full retracement of the chart. If the A wave is a 3-wave formation, it is very likely that we might be seeing a abcde 5 wave patterns. here instead, should B wave having a full retracement.

On the hind side, I forsee an alternate probability that the double bottom failed to reach its objective. Currently Dow Jones is clinching onto the outest arc of the Fibonacci Arc. It should be only time that it will break away to continue its fall. There are 2 reasons for this: There is no divergence on the weekly indicators; Counter wave too short considering the up-trend stretched from Mar 2009 till April 2010. A total of 13 months, the down trend should takes around half the time, around 6.5 months.

Fig 2 DJIA Monthly Chart

While result on weekly is relatively indeterminant, it would be beneficial to seek audience from higher order. No I don't mean God, I mean monthly chart. On monthly basis, the direction is clearer, both RSI and Stochastic are on down trend. Not only that divergence is visible on Stochastic.It is thus quite clear which path has the higher order decided for Dow. It is coming down.

DJIA

2010-06-15T23:21:00.003+08:00

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

My last up-date on Dow Jones mentioned Dow was going up, it did the next 1 1/2 day or so at least. Unfortunately it started falling yesterday. Dow has created sort of an inverted hammer. While Stochastic is up, RSI is turning down. Further more,

Zooming out, Dow also seems to be forming a rectangle with upper envelop @ 10,316 while lower envelop @ 9,753. If successful it will have an objective of 9,208. On the other hand, it become a double or tripple bottom, the objective would be 10,878. But then with toppish indicators, it is likely to head south.

STI at previous high

2010-06-15T22:52:00.003+08:00

I went to see the same customer who stood me and my colleague up the other day. He was apologetic and friendly this time. This guy has changed after a few months from relatively self centred to one who is more willing to listen before making comments. Seems like few months in the market change a person. He is more careful and understanding his situation. Anyway, I have committed my support to him as his team.

It is amicable for someone who is willing to venture out, take risk and explore the unknown. It is one of the difficult thing one person can do for survival. Especially when R & D is a dying market in Singapore. It is only right what we help each other for survival.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

My last up-date on STI predicted it will go down the next day, that was Friday. It did not happened. Yet, I continude to see STI weakening each day. It is having difficulty going up.

The main reason I guess is because it is resisted by the 89 days moving average located at 2,829. While Stochastic and RSI are trending up, they are quite limited in their progress, it is only a matter of time that STI would turn downward. Anyway, just as a precaution, I am placing the Fibonacci projection, the next level will be 23.6% at 2,864.

Wing Tai heading for neck line

2010-06-14T23:35:00.002+08:00

Fig 1 Wing Tai Daily Chart

My last up-date on Wing Tai as I recalled mentioned the head and shoulder formation and that it has broken through the neckline. As always, the chart needs to return to the neckline before moving south to meet its objective. Wing Tai is no different as far as I am concern.

My estimation is that Wing Tai might hit 1.70 which also coincide with the negative gradient of the Gann Grid line. This would probably be the location where the counter reverse again.

Genting Up-date 14th June 2010

2010-06-14T23:11:00.002+08:00

There are quite a few commotion recently on religious organization, after the case on Ming Yi came Rony Tan, then City Harvest Church, and in recent days another pastor Mark Ng for talking about Chinese superstition. There seems to be more and more religious arguement nowadays. anyway, my days in religious battle is gone and I should leave them behind.

Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

My last entry mentioned of Genting possibly heading for 1.14 but only after a pull back. Well, the pull back happened while 1.14 not, at least not yet. It is at present trapped in a possible rectangle formation.

Why I am thinking about rectangle and not a tripple top? The whole move since 28th April seems to be the beginning of the C wave. from 28th April to 13th May was a 3-wave pattern of a, followed by b till 25th May 2010. The a of c ended on 31st May and we should be seeing b of c right now. So logically we should be seeing a c of c with rectangle break out.

But I would be expecting Genting to head south first because it has only completed abcd of the rectangle wave, there is still an e wave to go. This also supported by the fact that the indicators might be doing a divergence on the chart eventhough they are heading up. They both look sluggish to me.

The objective for the rectangle will be around 1.16. This is higher than the earlier prediction of 1.12 base on the double bottom formation.

On the down side in case my picture is wrong, a tripple top formation will yield an objective of 0.90.

Divergence on British Pound

2010-06-11T22:43:00.003+08:00

I worked on a tedious case today. It is not difficult but tedious because of the complexity of the customer's requirement.

Imagine a customer who wants free service to design for rediculous requirement, each conflicting with one another. He needs a system requiring 23W power yet can fit into a space of 20 x 10 x 200 mm. The 2 crucial components alone would take up a space of 25 X 25 X 13 and 25(dia)X30mm! He wants guaranttee of component lifespan of 50,000 hours when vendors can only guaranttee 2,000 hours of operation.

In the end, I have to give him the specs that we can achieve and he has to choose if he will take it or not. This is simply because no one want to take responsibility of rejecting a customer. My vendor won't want to do it, my Field Application does not want to do it, so I have to...Okay, that is a little technical, may be its better to go back to the charts.

Fig 1 British Pound Monthly Chart

As I went through the British Pound vs SGD, I can't help but to notice that there is a divergence between the chart and RSI on Monthly basis. It seems like BP is turning up. In fact BP seems to have completed a C wave with a 5 waves down. I believe it is at the bottom of the bottom formation. We should see either a reverse head and shoulder or double bottom.

Dow Jones is moving up

2010-06-10T22:14:00.004+08:00

...and you will say, "idiot, of course it is moving up, everyone can see that it went up by 233 points already!"

Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

However, I am not referring to today. What I see is that RSI is reversing up with divergence as compared t 25th May 2010. It is now hovering at the 23.6% fibonacci retracement line of 10,138. My guess is that it will be resisted by the 21 days moving average at 10,229 and previous high of 10,316. But at least for the next few days, it will be up.

Similar to STI, the 21 days moving average has crossed the 89 days moving average on 24th May 2010. Dow Jones has also reversed.

My prediction for STI tomorrow

2010-06-10T21:51:00.004+08:00

I was at SGH today. No, I am not doing medical check up or having problem with my health....not in a way that I need to head for the hospital. I was there with my FAE to meet a client. Unfortunately, he did not turn up and we waited for an hour.

The client is a youngster who has just graduated from University and he is working for his father who distributes medical equipment. I am not sure if he is a stereotype of the young generation nowadays. I remember when I first met him in a meeting, he seems to assume others to have the same intelligence if not lower. What he found difficult he assume the same to others, too, regardless their experience in the field. I think he has a lot to learn.

Anyway, he let us waited for an hour without up-dating us if he was coming, when we message him, he kept feeding back that he was on his way, but eventually when another person picked up the phone, we noted that he was still working on a machine. seriously he really need to learn about time management as well. Keeping others waiting without being able to meet the time commitment is really inconsiderate!

This reminds me of another engineer of mine, fresh graduate, relatively good result but he is the centre of the world. He assume no one else has the level of knowledge he has, and I sure gave him a shock on how big the world is.

Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

While I was out, I did not know that STI actually went up by about 30 points today! However, I want to make a brave prediction for tomorrow. I predict it will be down tomorrow, why?

Stochastic and RSI are reversing up on daily basis, so by right it should be moving up.

The thing that make me think it is coming down is because STI is stopped by the descending 21 days moving average. In addition, STI is moving into the negative gradient of the Gann Grid lines. Further to that, it is reaching a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. Maximum leeway for STI is about 2,787.

So why the "brave" prediction? This is because DJIA is arrowing up by 243 points as I type and the chance for STI to go up seems high. If STI is to shoot up tomorrow, what would it be then?

My guess is a gap up to break the moving average and Gann Grid resistance. But my firm believe at this moment is that it won't go far and would fail to break the previous high at 2,821. The crossing of 21 days moving average on 89 days moving average on 21st May 2010 more or less confirm that STI has reversed.

Yen strengthen against USD

2010-06-10T00:13:00.003+08:00

As I continued to look through the Forex, I noticed Japanese Yen against USD.

While Japanese Nikkei225 is not showing sign of life yet, the Yen is giving a much different perspective.

Fig 1 USD/JPY Weekly Chart

From the chart, it is clear to see a descending triangle, the number of waves met the criteria and thus it is ripe. The break out downward is a result of such. The measurement base on the triangle is going to be USD1=JPY58.44 or something like that. Currently, USD1 still holds at JPY91.37.

May be it is better to invest in JPY right now.

I think EURO in BIG trouble

2010-06-09T23:52:00.005+08:00

I was a little slag after Monday, mainly because I have bought DVD on a crime series Criminal Minds. Well, one thing that I haven't revealed here is that I am also a fan on crime stuffs, especially on serial killers. I was hooked on the DVD the whole night last night until the point that I did not even switch on my notebook (naughty, naughty).

Talking about serial killers, they are an interesting bunch of people. Most of them are male and they experience traumatic childhood (with the exceptional few. Contrary to standard beliefs, no, they are are influenced by sexually explicit materials, in fact, the hook on these materials are the effect and not cause of their destructive behaviours. Most of those who were abused by the female side of the care givers would normally come to hate women, while those abused by males would vet their frustration on the males.

Fig 1 EUD USD Weekly Chart

I have been all the while focusing the EUD based on SGD. Already I have witness a great fall against SGD. Since I have not much to look at today, I opened the USD layout and took a peek at EUD. It is quite shocking indeed!

What I saw was a double top formation with the chart already penetrated the neckline. While both indicators are at bottom they continued to move south, indicating more bear movement on this currency. Definitely something is wrong with Euro at the moment.

Using Fibonacci projection, I gather that EUD must at least reach 11,540 before retracing, which coincide with the 23.6% projection. the Double Top formation on the other hand is not that friendly, it is heading for 8,958, meaning EUD1 = USD0.8958. This is probably due to USD strengthening while Euro weakening at the same time.

So it is definitely not a time to buy Euro yet.