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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

9/13/2025

My condolence to Charlie Kirk

Fig 1. Charlie Kirk  

In the morning of 11th September 2025, I woke up with a disturbing news. Charlie Kirk has passed away.

I was puzzled, because I remembered that he looked to be in good health. It was quite unbelievable that he died suddenly.

It was only on further search that I realized that he was assassinated.

While I do not agree with him on religious matter, I agree with him on his other ideologies. I also admire his courage to put himself on the front ends going to many Universities debating with students.

He is not fazed with the left extremes calling him Fascist and Nazi and continues to argue bases on facts and statistics, which seems to be rare for those university students, who seems to be irrational and lacks a sane mindset. They resorted to name callings and insults and lack proper justification.

It is also through these debates that we can see how the US prestige education has fallen and if I am a hirer, I will think twice about hiring them.

The irony is that those on those who call him fascist are the ones behaving like one. They are highly intolerant alternate views, instead of making a point to further investigate, they move to silent opposing voices, to the extent that killing off the other end is a fair game.

Sadly, US is heading to such a direction. If not stop, it will result in dictatorship, and surprise, surprise, it will not come from the Republican, but the Democrats, who are lacking in competence, full of themselves, and highly insecure with the need to be in control all the time. 

Should the Democrats continue to take charge of the US government, the people of the USA will truly lose their freedom one day.

I was originally thinking of an update on the Dow since I am discussing on US matter this round. However, I just realized that the Dow was my most recent entry and it is not appropriate to go for another round.

At the same time, I believe that Hang Seng development is more interesting for the time being.

My last update on Hang Seng was in the entry Let's do an up-date.. dated 20th April 2025. I have noted then the possibility of Hang Seng in counter wave moves with resistances at between 22,227 and 24,979, it might on continuation downward thereafter.

Hang Seng broke through these 2 levels and continued upward. Has Hang Seng indeed reversed?

Fig 2. Hang Seng weekly chart
At present, I am seeing a double bottom with its neckline broken through. So the first this to do now is a measurement using Fibonacci extension based on this formation.

There are 2 resistance levels using its 61.8% and 100% extension: 27,632 and 30,775 respectively.

Using Fibonacci projection, it can be seen that Hang Seng has already broken through its 127% resistance of 25,118. The next level of resistance will be 27,946, its 161.8% projection.

At the same time, I am still in doubt that we are seeing a new bull, because its move since 21st January 2024 violates the 5-wave pattern, with lows violating the previous highs. We are still in a counter wave behavior, which is about 3 years long now (since 2023). 

Meanwhile, the MACD is showing weakness while Hang Seng is reaching new high. It looks sluggish and lacking in momentum. 

I suspect Hang Seng may still be going up, ends with a short burst before reversing downward.

I have also been checking on some Hong Kong podcasts lately. Signs are not good as it tells of closures after closures, and these are not small retails but huge local chains. Already units for rent are appearing at even shopping hot spots on Hong Kong streets.

The issue with Hong Kong is its high dependence on China market, and as China economy is entering its winter phase, the money train to Hong Kong stops. We are even seeing a reverse flow of Hong Kongers heading to China for shopping spree.

If Hong Kong is to be revived, it really needs to rethink its position to be more open. The continuation in its present direction will only worsen the future of Hong Kong.


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