Belief system for Technical Analysis

I remember the time when I first ventured into Technical Analysis, my teacher has emphasised on one thing, "The chart is never wrong, if the market is wrong, you are wrong".

Over the years I have held on to this belief. I supposed not many people would unconditionally accept such comments without a single doubt. I guess that is what so different about me. My rule of learning is to never question the material while I am learning. It helps with the absorption of data.

Over the years, I came to understand how important my teacher's emphasis is. Believing that the chart is always right and it is me who is wrong if I did not get it right, it let me trust the charts. I doubt many of my class mates do. Many simply stopped reading the chart themselves and let others read for them. Some started to adopt a fundamental-technical mix which I believe would eventually become more confuse over their predictions.

So the question is: How true is this sentence? I don't know about others. For me, I fully vouch for it.


Fig 1 AUD Weekly Chart

Take AUD chart for instance, I have been reading this chart for quite a while and all this time seeing it developed, " like a flower slowly blossom infront of you" was what my teacher said. Yet, all these while I could not see a pattern already telling me its next destination.

It is only today that I find a huge upward wedge onboard and that AUD already broken its lower envelop. The target for AUD now is SGD115.197. I more or less know it should be descending but not know where, and only through this wedge thing become much clearer.

On a side note, going through all the forex chart gives me the impression that SGD is actually quite stagnant. Seems to me that the rise of USD against SGD have to couple with AUD fall against SGD. It is in fact AUD falling against USD while SGD remained constant.