Gold shot up....

I normally restrict myself to 1 entry per week. Having more entries tends to drain my brain and less time for other matters on hand, like family time, especially when I am doing this on a weekend. 

However, a video I watched last night about gold plunged in China caught my attention, led me to check on the trend of gold.

Video: China’s Gold Prices Drop Sharply, Gold Stocks Crash, and Gold Shops Flee Overnight | Fake Gold

The video began with a plunge in gold price in China within a week, as a result burning the hands of many. It further narrated the unscrupulous gold retailers cheating consumers of the money through sales of fake gold as well as promise of safe keeping only to close down the outlet conning people of the money.

It stirred my curiosity on price of gold: what was my last stand on gold and how far it is from mt prediction? and has gold plunged as how the video described?

I checked up my past entries and noted my mention of gold was in Did the Israel-Hamas war any effect on the world? dated 14th October 2023. It was certainly quite some time ago.

I mentioned at the time that gold was in congestion and when break upward, I will see resistances at 1,985, 2,105 and 2,184.  

1,985. Should this be broken, it will head for 2,105 to 2,184. I based my highest resistance point at 61.8% projection; the 100% projection level was too far at that point of time.

Fig 1. Gold weekly chart

The chart did not really show a sizeable reversal, instead, it was a minor retreat after breaking through the Bollinger band the week before last.  At the beginning of this this week, it fell further before recovering and closed above the Bollinger band but fall short of the 127% projection of its medium and minor measurement.

With 2 resistances at the same level, it may be a tough nut to crack. However, gold seems to have a momentum upward, observing its MACD steep climb. 

I suspect it will head straight to its major 100% projection level, 2,527, which coincide with its 161.8% projection of medium and minor measurement.

There is still no signal of any potential correction. If it "reverses", I will see its first line of moving average support at 2,254.

It seems that we are going to have another round of inflation here as USD is getting stronger against SGD and gold is inflating against USD.

Good thing that crude oil may be coming down (need one more bar to confirm).

Is Nikkei beginning it's descend?

I touched on Dow Jones again last week noting its gain in momentum for descend, which leads me to look into other indices more related to me. 

So I will concentrate on Nikkei 225 this week.

The last time I checked on Nikkei225 was on the last day of year 2023, when I did a year end review of the 3 main indices and recorded in Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng dated 31st December 2023.

I used the monthly chart then for my analysis to enable a farther vision of the counter.  I was with an opinion that Nikkei should be rising up with resistance observed between 35,500 to 38,500. 

Since then, I have not touched on Nikkei over its higher time frame, since the time frame I used (3 minutes chart) for my trading is too far from the higher time frames to be affected.

It takes a long time for a 3-minute chart to reach the next resistance / support level on a monthly or even weekly chart. Even when reaching the said levels, it fluctuates in such wide dynamic range.

In short, daily chart is useful enough for movement prediction.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

Since my last read, Nikkei has broken through the resistance levels that I have highlighted, reaching a high of 41,124 before retreating. This also coincide with the 100% projection resistance of its major move. 

Its descend is with momentum, breaking through the 8-week moving average after a short pause. It also broke through and stayed beliow its 21-week moving average. 

I suspect it will either congest or correct in the coming week, but will descend further there after.\

55-week moving average will be the crucial point for Nikkei, since it also coincide with the 61.8% retracement line at 34,396 and 61.8% projection line 33,655. 

It is also interesting to note that there is a divergence on MACD, even though it is a minor one. There is a need for more divergence signal for more certainty. 

In addition, its upward movement seems to follow a 3-wave behavior, giving me the impression that this is a counter wave.

This counter needs to be monitor closely to determine if Nikkei is indeed reversing. 

Dow Jones started its descend

It was only recently that I didan entry on Dow Jones titled My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end? dated 23rd March 2024.

While I suspect that Dow Jones may reverse downward, I believe that Dow Jone may stll have a little upside space before its reversal.

Dow did an attempt to climb higher the week and failed. 

Dow Jones experienced a continuous 2 weeks of descend since, with momentum!

This created an engulf candlestick pattern, with confirmation.

Has the Dow Descend started?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

In its more major move, it seems that Dow Jones has reached its 100% projection objective causing its recent reversal. 

Its descend was only stopped by its 21-week moving average. 

At the same time, divergene is seen on MACD, giving me confidence of its downward intention.

I believe it may pause shortly in the coming week or 2 before continuation, f I consider a gentler downward movement. 

If it maintains its momentum and break through the 21-week moving average, we may see the 3 black crows confirming its intended direction. 

The first support level I see is between 36,597 to 37070. Breaking this level will lead to the next support level between 25,297 to 26,223. Coincidentally where its 55-week moving average is at presently.

I believe Dow will have to reach this level for this descend, I believe in the strength of the 55-week moving average than that of the 21week.

Divergence after divergence after divergence... on MYR....

 Less than a month after my last trip back, I am again heading home to KL, I am travelling alone this time.

Why? It is my brother's birthday. The is only my mother and the maid at home, not much to celebrate, which is why I am heading home. 

It is also in the coming week that the Malay community celebrate their Hari Raya Puasa after a month of fasting during Ramadan. It is a big event for the Malay as well as the Muslim worldwide.

Since I am heading for Malaysia, I might as well conduct a read on MYR. My last update on MYR was Did SGD get weaker? dated 19th November 2023. The entry was due to my suspicion that SGD might get weaker than MYR in the near future.

The entry focused on SGD and MYR was not really analyzed. Since then, MYR turned weaker against SGD.  

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

From the chart, MYR further weakened against USD. However, it barely broke its previous high before retreating, an indication of weakness. 

As can be seen from the chart, there are multiple divergences on MACD every time MYR reached a new high. 

In the short run, there is a sign for continuation downtrend, I suspect there will be support between 4.62 to 4.67. This also coincide with the 55-week moving average support level. 

Is MYR itself is strengthening? 

Let's check a second pair, SGDMYR.

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

Similar behavior is seen on SGDMYR, with numerous divergences, although lesser than USDMYR. This is mainly due to USD less stable than SGD.

I can only use retracement, which yield a support at 3.43, coinciding with its 55-week moving average.

At present, the moving average alignment is still healthy, giving me an impression that MYR itself is on continuation with the recent strengthening a correction. 

Cost of living is going to creep up again.....

It is a short week this week because of Good Friday. Even so, Not all the market would be closed. Japan for instance, won't close for Good Friday, would it? I would at least go for Nikkei trade in the morning, or so I thought.

I woke up at 5:45AM, did my morning routine and by 7:15AM, I was at my work desk, have my laptop and PC turned on and I was ready.

As it turned out, Nikkei IS CLOSED on Good Friday! Anyway, no plan for Good Friday, we ended going for lunch then grocery shopping before heading home, ending the day with dinner at my mother-in-law's home. Quite an unhappening day.

On a sidetrack, I checked on the internet over news on JB crossing. Without surprised, both entry to JB from Singapore were jammed, and it is difficult to say which one was worse. I could only gauge from the queue over the second link which was close to reaching the exit from Singapore custom that it would be at least 5 hours wait before reaching the Malaysia CIQ. 

I really wonder, "why many Singaporeans are so hard up on heading to Malaysia on every opportunity?"

Definitely, Currency exchange has something to do with the urge, Afterall, Kiasuism is an identity of Singaporeans. With inflation creeping up and cost of living over the roof in Singapore (led by government initiatives), heading to a country with your money is multiplied 3.5 times or more is definitely a great draw, even when you may need to wait 5 hours for it, one way. 

Otherwise, is there possibility that Singapore economy is not doing well to the extent that Singaporeans shorten their distances for oversea trips, road trip instead of flying to a faraway place. Certainly, the crossings were not that jam pack 10 years ago and a trip to Malaysia was not high on Singaporeans agenda.

It all come down to affordability, and speaking of affordability, I think driving may be less affordable in the near future, why? Crude oil and USD are creeping up.

It was not long ago that I did my updates on SGD (Now that SGD reached its 55-week moving average, what is next?) dated 2nd March 2024 and Crude Oil (It is Crude Oil's turn after SGD) a week later on 10th March 2024.

I estimated that SGD might reverse at 55-week moving average while Crude Oil has limit in it climb.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

While SGD went down as expected the week after my last update, it reversed before reaching my predicted target. It broke through the 55-week moving average and stayed above the level by the end of this week.

This led to new development in SGD with an upward possibility. Using Projection, I can see that SGD is now reaching its 61.8% projection resistance. Furthermore, there seems to be momentum to head higher. 

I may see mild congestion at this point before it goes higher to 1.36376. This level also coincides with its 78.1% retracement level.

Nevertheless, its higher degree moving averages for the moment still maintain tendency of downtrend. 

What of crude oil?

Fig 2. Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude oil is still attempting to climb upward, at the same time, it is facing resistance by its Bollinger band at 82.81, and at this point of time, Bollinger envelop is not relenting its position. The envelop also close to its 61.8% retracement @ 84.13.

It is also interesting noting that the volume of trade is reducing as it climbs higher. This is sign of divergence in crude oil.

For the moment, the reading from the previous entry still stand.

My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end?

I have skipped my up-date last week, again. 

I went back to Malaysia for an event, the clear bright festival. It is a Chinese tradition which the livings visit and attend to the grave of the past. It is a way we remember that our existence is the result of the effort of our ancestors. Without them, we will not be here today. We should be grateful for what their work.

Nope, it is not exactly time for clear bright festival, it is not yet due till early April. It is the anniversary of my father's passing and we have decided to conduct the ceremony early. Furthermore, it is not required that we must conduct the ceremony on the very day. Traditionally, there is an allowance of plus and minus 2 weeks to carry through this process.

I still remember that my cousins and I all look forward for this event, why?

It is not about prayer for our ancestors, neither was it for cleaning the graves. That was the role of the adult. Our role was to eat the offerings after each prayer. The amount of food is abundance, including soft buns, duck eggs, apples, oranges, roast pork and pastries. 

It was picnic for us, not only we feast, we also took the opportunity to connect with each other utilizing this rare opportunity when all the cousins gather at the same spot.

Under normal circumstances, an average family will only have the graves of the grandparents and /or deceased parents. My family is more complicated. My grandmother passed away even before my birth. Her grave was very simple with just a tomb stone and a heap of soil topped with grass patch.

My grandfather passed away when I was 4, but he is not buried together with my grandmother, because he remarried. So we have at least 2 graves that we need to attend to.

My second grandmother past away in 1999. As a place was allocated for her when my family picked the grave for my grandfather.

My family is unique, because there is yet another grave that we have to attend to. For years, the younger generation has no idea whose grave was it. It was much later that we get to know that this is the grave of my second grandmother's first husband. He passed away without heir, as a result the off springs of my family took up the task of tending to his grave as well. 

As we took over the role from our parents, it was then that we realized how taxing it is to take care of the graves, including cutting the grass, loosening the soil, burn the incense for our ancestors' grave, as well as other graves nearby to say "hello".

We started our process by 6 in the morning preparing the food, drive our way to the temple of the first cemetery, visit the first grave, drive to the second cemetery and attend to the second and third grave. 

By the time we finish, it is 11 in the morning. By then, the sun is close to midday, and it is very warm and humid, we will be drench in our own sweat. In addition, we lack sufficient drinking water, leading to an absolute dehydration. It is really not an enjoyable experience when we are adult.

Enough of my clear bright festival. 

I have not been on Dow Jones for quite a while. Part of the reason was my prediction made during the new year in my entry Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. I estimated Dow Jones should see resistance between 37,481 and 39,127 on minor move while 40,295 to 47,454 in major move. 

Dow crossed 39,000 3 weeks ago and is close to reaching the 40,000 mark that I estimated last week before retreating this week. It caused a minor stir on youtube.com. By minor I means a little news, mainly about it breaking new height.

What will happen next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones has reached new height, it seems to lack momentum heading upward. Nevertheless, it managed to stay afloat above 8-week moving average. At the same time, there are a few level resistances. Most obviously, its descending Bollinger envelop at 40,746. 

In addition, it is meeting 2 projection resistances. While it stayed above 39,123 but resisted by 39,500. 

There is another projection resistance above these 2, which is its major projection resistance line at 40,354. I suspect it will retreat when reach this level. However, I cannot determine if it will be a reversal or correct at this point. I will assume the higher possibility of correction based on my experience on 61.8% projection line. it may retreat to its 55-week moving average before heading higher.

At this point of time, there is not yet divergence observed from MACD. Even when divergence is observed, there should still be one more leg up before reversal.

Other than this, I am not seeing other indication on the weekly chart. Is there other hint from Dow Jones chart?  

Let's look at the daily chart.

Fig 2. Dow Jones daily chart

It is also noticeable from this chart that there is a reduction in its momentum. However, there is a surge in momentum this week to push it to new height, with exception on Friday, which sees an over 400 points drop.

Is there anything that need to be worried about? 

Let's take a look at its candle sticks. The 3 days consecutive surge created the three white soldiers this crossing the Bollinger envelop. This followed by a retreat back within the Bollinger band.

While it is a little stretched out, I estimate that this is a potential up-side Tasuki gap, indicating possibility of continuation thereafter. 

There chance of uptrend is high even on the daily chart as a result.

I have drawn a projection on the chart postmortem. The reason for this week's reversal is due to its 61.8% projection resistance. With my belief that 61.8% projection normally result in correction.

Regardless correction or continuation after this week, the next resistance zone will be between 40,623 to 41,210.

It is Crude Oil's turn after SGD

I normally conduct a read on Crude Oil when I work on SGD. I did not last week, why?

I was lazy and I wanted to rest on a weekend. Furthermore, crude oil did not seem to be going anywhere. At least not yet. I was thinking to myself, " Let's take it easy."

While USD truly weakens against SGD this week, I am still pumping gas for my car at the same price. It only means that the oil price has not been down, or down but not that much.

Let's do a read on crude oil this week then.

Fig 1. Crude Oil weekly chart

In my last update on this counter, I estimated that it will tend to move up with resistance from its 55-week moving average.

It is there right now. The interesting part is that its gradient while moving upward is very gradual, indicating a weaker momentum as compared to its down trend. 

Is it going down already? 

It has not shown me indication of reversal, I believe that it is not ready. There may still be some distance to go before it decides to head downward. 

Where do I see the resistance? We should see resistance zone between 87.11 to 99.10. I consider its 87.11 to be more crucial as it also coincides with the Bollinger envelop (86.05) presently. 

At the same time, support level is also attained through its major move with support zone between 28.17 to 53.71.

However, this is subjective considering a potential reversal at the Bollinger envelop, which will provide a new support zone if it turns true.