The Singapore Stock Market

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is one that I can use to trace my performance. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts I read and readers should not take it as absolute.


Is this the end of the China miracle?

I recall many years ago ( many, many years) while I was schooling, I came across this comic strip with a Japanese boss pointing to King Kong clinging on top of Chrysler building and his assistant told him, " no, sir, you can't buy the monkey on top of that building."

I remember Japanese Yen was growing very strong against USD in 1985, and all Japanese were out shopping, out of the country, I mean. It was soon after that that we have our market slow down leading to the recession affecting the whole Asia. Ever since then, Japan has never recovered from its fall, even till now.

During the 90s with the emergence of the 4 small dragons (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea), Asia was at its pinnacle of growth. This lead to the flourishing of Asean due to overflow of business orders. Asean in fact was in its golden years.

I remembered at that time they were contemplating on increasing their membership size by taking in Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar (if my memory serve me right) raising the objection from USA. Indonesia in particular was bold and proud enough to retort US by saying that this was an Asean issue and Asean need not interference from the USA.

It was right after that in 1997 that the currency crisis leading to another recession with Asean market wiped out.

Why am I writing this? Because the action of certain country reminds me of the behaviour of these nations right before they fell, if you guess China, you are right.

For the last few years, we were witnessing the abundance of wealth displayed by the Chinese nationals. Where ever they went, they shopped. All the while with a show of arrogance and displayed wisdom of ignorance.

I watched a youtube program under "China Uncensored" which discuss China matter and came across this segment about a Chinese Entrepreneur presenting at TED exclaiming how China go it right with communism and that US won't be able to compare to China on its competence. He further justified how much China have in meritocracy, legitimacy and Flexbility under the communist regime.

I shaked my head over his level of ignorance and arrogance. At the same time, I can't help but to wonder how they are now closely resemble the Japanese in 1985, Asean in the 90s. I am contemplating the time when China fall from grace.

Fig 1 Shanghai SEC weekly chart

I have just bought my data plan for world indices, and since China was on the news lately, it is worth while taking a look. I can flash back to around 2008-2010 when my interest was triggered by comment of China market collapsing, I laughed it off since China was at that time at a bottom (not the bottom). Since then China has developed a bottom formation and since 2014 has shot up. It was a spike move. By then it would have broken through the second support line.

However, there is nothing to be happy about, firstly, SSEC retreated as fast as it shot up failing to reach the previous high. Second, it broke through the neck line support. Third, it is on a "C" wave downward. "A" happened between 2007-2008, "B" from 2008-2015. This is the most important part, since there is not much pattern show the seriousness of the situation, r may be there is. If I consider a flag formation formed in the second half of 2015, it should at least head for 1,500 mark.

The only consolation is that there is a multi-year support at around1,700 mark which wil halt its fall.But if my reading is right, it will eventually fall through 1,000 mark with minimum objective of 667. I can' imagine what would happen in China by then. Am I seeing the beginning of Chaos in China right now?


SGD EUR @ 1.65

Fig 1 SGD EUR Weekly Chart

I am presently watching Wrath of the Titans, but I am definitely feeling quite god like right now. I predicted SGD1.56 when it was at SGD1.50, it then went to SGD1.56. I then predicted it to reach SGD1.65 last week and it is this week.

Well, I am still struggling a little with the wave count. If it is true that B as just ben completed in 2014, then we would be experiencing C by now.  Pattern wise, it is possible for the counter o be at bottom forming, since the chart is moving side way.

The counter is presently resisted by the negative gradient trend line. For the moment, I figure that it will retrace downward after this.

USD SGD in congestion, small one

While I am writing these entries. A thought came into my mind.

There are many types of bloggers. Some just like to catch attention and the funny thing is that this group of bloggers normally has the highest hit rate and sponsorship. At the same time, I see them as someone causing trouble and creating news all the time.

Another group that I know of are the food bloggers. It is interesting to have a brief analysis of this group of bloggers. I in fact do not see them publishing any of their cooking and all they do is to go around restaurants eating, taking pictures and commenting on others' cooking.

It gives me the feeling that they are insure and in needs of attention. The blogs certainly does not bring in much value. It really does not take much skill in looking, smelling and tasting of food then colourfully describe them. It would however be more amazing if they can duplicate the cooking they like. At least it will show their readers more of their credibility.

Okay, back to charting. This entry is on USD SGD!....again. It is important to know the trend of this counter as most international transactions are done in USD. As such the well being of Singapore's economy does to some extend dependent on USD SGD relationship.

Fig 1 SGD USD Weekly Chart

What I see at the moment is a mild congestion. My final objective of SGD1.45 is still intact as this is a result of years long of pattern forming (bottom formation). The sad thing is that it congests right after it broke the previous high and I am relatively impatient by now. The counter is stopped by one of the support which has now turned resistance @ SGD1.415. The energy level appeared in Dec 2008.

The good part of it is that this wave has yet to complete. The retracement to the neckline earlier completed a minor counterwave and a new wave has started. SGD USD is now on a iii and I sense that it has some way to go before the iv. If I base on candle stick pattern, there is 1 more stick similar in nature before it continues its journey. It is as to why I say congestion.

I would not be surprise if next week is range bound. This will at least allow the indicators to breathe some air, since both Stochastic and RSI are a little on the high side right now. It will need more momentum to break through this resistance level.

The Gambler, Genting Singapore

My father always praised the courage of Lam Ng Tong, he has selected the top of the mountain to build his casino. My father always asked me to imagine the amount of risk it takes financially to build an architecture as such at a place so remote that no road was available at the time and not knowing if it will succeed at all. Lam Ng Tong is indeed a great gambler himself.

So when Genting was awarded the resort licence in Singapore, it was really a great event. It attempted collaboration with he Macau casino tycoon cause a stir and led to the Singapore government to step in and put a stop to that.

Yet after many yers, the noverty has subsided and all we know is that whenever the government "needs money", they will find ways to fine Genting ( or Marina Bay Sand) for extra income. So how is Genting performing at the moment?

Fig 1 Genting Weekly Chart

Genting of all the stocks has in fact been on the decline since late 2010 and has not recovered since. This is interesting. It does fit my observation that that this phenomena is dying. Another interesting thing is that I have earlier placed Fibonacci downward projection on this counter and when I relook into this counter, I see that it is presently supported by the 38.2% retracement line, it was at 23.6 in the past low.

The problem I have at the moment is the wave counts. Top down I see a 3 wave pattern but the justification needs to match with the minor wave set ups. My feel at the moment is a complex B with a 5 wave pattern (a-e) and C wave is more of  a 3 wave pattern. There don't seems to be a single major wave to  have a 5 wave pattern.

Alternatively, if I consider the a and b of B wave to be the 4th and 5th of A, then A will fulfill the 5 wave formation. But here is the problem, either the b (or 2nd) wave of A is complex or the 1st wave has a 4th that is too big. Theory of wave count does stated that 1 counter wave should be simple while the other complex. Such is not the case in this pattern.

Nevertheless, I would see a re-bounce on this counter but no pattern sighted yet and therefore difficult to justify.The support turn resistance level so far is 1.18. The indicators are not in agreement with each other although both of them are at the bottom. So no conclusion yet and monitoring is necessary if you are in this counter.

Famous for cheese bread and high end food court, Breadtalk

My father love the cheese bread from this company. It is slightly salted due to the cheese conent and coupled with soft bread. What I like on the other hand is its high end food court. It is in no doubt that the food court is more expensive than others, at the same time Breadtalk is able to gang together a few reputed food outlets to join its band wagon of high end food court, with quality that more or less guaranteed. Its office is located at Tai Seng area and I can assure you that no one can miss it. So how does it fare?

Fig 1 Breadtalk weekly chart

Ok, it does not look good at the moment, influenced by the crisis created by China. Instead of a correction, I would prefer the term reversal. Yes, my personal opinion is that the Chin crisis created reversal in many countries. Just a side line here, I looked at STI on the Yahoo chart and it looks bad. It is presently at 2,800 but the minimum objective is 2,500. It dropped from a high of 3,500, crossed the neckline at 3,000. STI will retrace to 3,000 mark before it goes down to 2,500, objectively speaking.

As for Breadtalk? There is a possibility of 2 patterns, head and shoulders, or double top. If we consider a head and shoulders, Breadtalk has certainly reached its objective of 1.12 which supported this counter. But I see that the right shoulder is a little weak and therefore consider the second option, the neckline is certainly much lower at 1.27.with objective of 0.946. In this case, it has still some where to go.

As for indicators, they are at the bottom, so I guess a "correction" is about to take place to go back to the neckline. The moving average on the other hand has crossed, although weak. It does have some indication of this counter will continue its downward trend.

Lets hope that it does not affect the quality of its bread.


The 3 white soldiers

Malaysian Ringgit is one of the currency I monitor, this I because I am a Malaysian by origin and what's happening in my country s my concern as well.
The last 3 weeks is really traumatic for Malaysian Ringgit, it has continuously been devalued by the market. All this the result of the scandal revealed Malaysian Government high level of corruption.
So what do we have here on the chart?

Fig 1 SGD MYR Weekly Chart

This chart clearly demonstrated a 3 white soldiers through candle stick. By tradition, we would go in if it is a stock counter, but we are looking at currency here, the larger the value the worse this currency gets. If I reverse the chart, the actual name of the pattern is known as the 3 black crows, meaning that it is going to fall further.
Fig 2 USD MYR weekly chart

Looking at USD MYR chart, the same is happening, with this chart, there is more reason for MYR to fall further, other than the so called 3-whie soldiers, USD MYR has formed a saucer bottom. The minimum objective measurement here is based on the width of the counter. There will be more way to go for ringgit.

I am concern with those living in Malaysia, their lives are going to be worse. The worst part is that the present corrupted government has only themselves to care for. They no longer aim to serve the people and  shutting up anyone who even try to voice their corrupt behaviour. Malaysia is heading for bankruptcy because of these people.

Singapore Press Holding

This is another counter with link to government. It is the major newspaper company in Singapore and it is known to many as the government mouth piece.
It was consistently being praised by the government with professional journalism. But of course, would the government say otherwise when the news papers fro this company, regardless English Chinese, serious or gossip,  are absolutely pro-government.
How much can we trust when the newspaper from this company can have overnight reaction to government policy release? The article would even contain interview with people reacting positively supporting and praising the government's action. Sound to me like North Korea.

Fig 1 Singapore Press Holding Weekly Chart

I did not do any charting on this counter, it is flat with exception of the 2009 incident. Again, the readership of this paper is deteriorating, we no longer see this paper appear at reception of every companies, neither do we see this paper at the front step of people's house in the morning. Its online "Stomp" was being criticised for cooking news and many netizens actually reject their sites.

My take is that, the chart should not be at this price at all. We should be seeing a decline on this counter, yet it is standing still at price unmatched by its business trnd.

ST Engineering

My blogs in recent past have been focussing on forex especially in relationship with Singapore Dollar. Forex has been active recently due to multiple factors. US economy IS recovering, signified by the strengthening of USD. The Greece saga threatening the Euro, the revelation of high level corruption of the Malaysia's elite and of course who can forget the late devaluation of RMB.
Comparatively, Singapore stock market IS REALLY QUIET. Practically there is nothing to show case.
Anyway, I was pulling out some of the GICs' profile to check on their performance. I kind of wonder why that the GICs are the only "performing stocks in the market and maintain dollar level values. This seriously in contrast will all other counters that reach as low as penny and sub-penny level.
Are these counters really performing as a company?
I picked up ST Engineering since it is supposed to be a representation of the engineering field.   
Fig 1 ST Engineering weekly chart

A simple look at the chart and I ca say, " it is doomed!" First a double top with minimum objective of SGD2.50. In fact it was so affected by the China event that it plunged SGD0.20 just this week! Wow!

On top of a double top, there is also a triangle formation which was broken downward. this of course are more lenient with minimum objective of SGD2.80.

But seriously dude, what justifies such high value of this counter? Its main and almost only customer is the Singapore government and I am not sure if the Government is actually trying to maintain its survival by thinking out projects for ST Engineering.


Najib should be removed

Fig 1 SGD MYR Weekly Chart

My last blog on this counter mentioned of the 2.90 target. It has been reached and surpassed.

My country is heading for bankruptcy because of an incompetence and yet a cowardice prime ministers with a bunch of followers attempting to suppress evidence of his corruption du to their vested interest. The very fact that if he goes down, everyone else will follow, the whole UMNO and BN ship will sink as a result of his own doing.

As such he is willing to sacrifice the well being of the whole country for his own benefit.

well, not all will hate him. Those who could not find working in Malaysia and forced to find greener pastures in Singapore will love him a lot.

EUR reached its minimum objective

USD was not the only counter with an impressive move this week. When I saw what happened to USD, I also reference over to EUR. It too went up and ended at 1.562 as of yesterday! So I went through my past blog on this counter. I predicted 1.56. Damn! I did not buy this counter! Okay, I bought some during my last trip to Munich and Villach, but it was in terms of a few hundred and I used quite a bit of them. So practically I am low on this counter.

Fig 1 SGD EUR Weekly chart
On  weekly basis, the indicators are inching up and certainly indicates more up-side for this counter, at the same time there is resistance in from the 89-week moving average @ 1.58. We should see some mild retracement from there. However, there is very little evidence here on patterns as to where EUR is going with SGD. So I have decided to go into the lower tie frame for more detail information and short term move.

 Fig 2 SGD EUR Daily Chart

With daily chart there seems to be more clarity. It is clear here that there is a reverse head and shoulders since stretched from beginning of 2015 till recent days and the break out is indicated with a spike on this counter. However, the move is not over yet as te head and shoulders indicates that 1.56 is only the 1/2 way mark and there are more to come.

Since I am again going to Munich by end October, I guess it is time to buy more. Now with this happening to EUR SGD, what about USD EUR? Since I am blogging on EUR, I might as well include USD EUR.

 Fig 3 USD EUR weekly chart
IC think I have blogged abot USD EUR in the past, and if so, I would have mentioned the triangle. As o today, this pattern still holds. The rise of this counter (I mean USD going up against EUR) still stands with support of 34-week moving average supporting at EUR0.88.

I have changed one of the indicator to MACD and it shows a support for upward trend. Similarly Stochastic as already moved above 50% mark. So what is the chart itself doing?

The way I see it, a congestion with a potential upward triangle. In fact it looks as if it is in some sort of a 4th wave or beginning of a 5th.

Anyway, I am looking forward to USD past EUR1 mark.  have told one of my colleague of this possibility and he did no believe it. It will feel good to show him I am right. Plus it will be good for my company since it will make our product cheaper.

The USD is breaking up....ward

I haven't been blogging for a while, again. There have been numerous interruption in my life lately, small ones, like my parents' visit, my son's and daughter's school activities and so on.

Well, I am now back at my frequently visited Starbucks Café with a Grande coffee beside me in the morning working on my charts while waiting for my son on his "enrichment" programme. Some time it makes me wonder if he really understand what the "enrichments" are for and certainly it goes against my principle of giving him free will since this is not his choice while I feel that it is important for his future.

Anyway, back to charting. First to fire off is SGDxUSD, a very interesting move this week due to RMB devaluation.

 Fig 1 SGD USD weekly chart

I have started blogging about this counter since months ago and foreseeing a rise in USD against SGD, and that the retracement of the counter to the neck line before clinching up to its objective.

Well, it happened ad is still happening. It touched its neckline @ 1.32 and bounced. I did recall an earlier entry with worry that it might break its neckline and go further down, seems like I need to be more confident with what the major move has shown me.

It has now in fact broken away and passed its previous high of 1.395. My guess is that it will move towards its target of 1.45 and may be even passes this point.

All we need to wait now is for it to reach its target, that is if you are already in the position.


USD may not yet be rising against the Euro yet

Fig 1 USD Euro Weekly
I have been follow the development in Europe right now as the Greek's debt negotiation is a very interesting piece of history. Imagine that you owe people EUR200bn and you are not only asking for people to forgive part of your debt, you are asking for more loans.
I was very much dismay that Tsipras practically use the whole country chip by calling for a referendum to oppose the austerity implementation. hoping the move will deter European Union would back down from their position.
I guess in the end, he and his country men knew that the game is up. European Union held their stand and was ready for Greece to exit the Euro. While he has to answer his fellow country men, they have to answer to theirs as well.
I am very surprised that what Tsipras proposed is an equally harsh measures to reform his country. The referendum it seems have sent a message to both the politicians and the people, it is more crucial that they remain in Euro rather than dropping the Austerity measures. The events unfolding this week is an absolute hell in Greece, bank closures, ration of money flow, empty shelves and totally no way out.
Tripras asked to the parliament to support his proposal, it passed with a majority of 251 for,  32 objects and 9 abstained. There was no protest an the streets against this proposal. I guess that the Greeks have a realisation that they have to face up the fact of hardship and this is not about democracy but responsibility and accountability. Bottomline is that the people chose the government and that how the government behave is the responsibility of the people. The people have closed their eyes when past government misbehaved, they have to live with the consequences.
Now back to the Euro. I have made some changes to the chart read and replaced RSI with MACD. Both RSI and Stochastic are too similar and that they almost always agree with each other and I definitely need a second opinion that deviates from the first one.
While weakness is seen on Euro when recent events unfolded, nevertheless the retracement is negligible compare with the major move. I have estimated that the Euro may drop below USD1, but the time has not yet arrived.  It is very likely the USD-Euro is in a B wave of counter wave. The pattern certainly shows this. Looking at MACD, it is also clear that the indicator remains in a negative zone.
As such, Euro is presently at half mast and there are some more way to go. Present support of USD is at Eur0.842. This also happens to be the neckline of this counter.  


Only Najib can save the day.... resigning and go to jail. I wish his wife will accompany him all the way.

Fig 1 SGD MYR weekly chart
The verdict is out, flag with target MYR2.90. It really seems to me that UMNO no longer bother to hide their sins. They are all out for last chance to grab what ever they can.


This is interesting

Fig 1 USD EUR Weekly

What happening here on USD-EUR weekly is a clear correction. While the chart shown a mild retracement, the indicators went from top to bottom, and they are now reversing.

This will support a reversal of USD EUR upward and continue with its journey. I can't wait to tell my colleague (who did not believe me), " I told you so..."

Seriously let's not be too euphoric on this. There may still be error in he reading. For one, we have not really seen a confirmation on the chart of reversal up-ward. Anyway, I am still bullish of EUR trending towards sub- USD1.

"b" wave for SGD USD?

Fig 1 SGD USD Weekly Chart

I haven't been looking at the chart for say 3 weeks, seems like once I stop, there is a difficulty in picking it up again. Took me quite some effort to re-open the metastock, I think his is partially because I fear I might get a shock from what I see. Well, not a lot of shock, but some puzzle here.

I have earlier joy for the re-bounce of the SGD USD, especially it demonstrated a reversal "here white soldiers" (sort of). I am a little surprise with almost a full retracement of this move.

Going through the move from March to early May this year, I can roughly see a 3-wave move. So the logic of the next stage of continuity is an up-ward move. with such retracement it gives me a feeling that the earlier move a only an "a" wave of  a 3-wave movement.

If this is true then it is only 1/2 way down. In such case, a complete move might lead to SGD USD heading towards 1.27.

Alternatively, it is possible that this is only a 2nd wave of a 5-wave movement. Then the prospect of SGD1.45 for USD1 is in sight.

The indictors at present is unclear since they are at 1/2 way mark and possibly not a clear indication of the chart direction. Hence there is a need for closer monitoring.