A reading on Russia Moex and Ruble

Ever since the beginning of Russia's "special military operation" or in another word " Invasion of Ukraine", my impression on Putin and his action is negative. It is not because I am against war, war is part of human nature.

If there is one thing I dislike about Putin's action is because he kept violating the rules of war, causing heavy losses for his country. While not focusing on the Russia-Ukraine situation, I have some entries on my view in my other blog The Holistic Side Of Life (holistic-denzuko1.blogspot.com).

As this blog focus on technical analysis, I gather that may be I should check up on how Russia is doing on its stock market and currency. It gives an indication if it fares better or worse after the war started.

Fig 1. Ruble Weekly Chart

We can see from the chart that Ruble shot up when the war started.

While US and the west tried to sanction Russia, causing the weakening of the Ruble reaching a level of 160 per USD. Russia managed to hold the world hostage with its oil and natural gas supplies. This led to Ruble shot back up and Putin laughed at US on the uselessness of its sanction with Europe reluctance to follow, they have high dependence on Russia gas.

72.49.

Ruble has since then hitting a new high of 50.5899 per USD on 26th June 2022, much higher than the pre-war period. 

At the moment, I find some difficulty reading this chart. Ruble came a long way down and with insufficient movement to indicate its next cause of action.

What I can see is a slowing down of its momentum after its congestion in April 2022, the bars continue to overlap each other thereafter. Further to that, there is a very minor zig zag pattern. Using this for measurement, possible resistance at between RUB65.65 to RUB72.499. This coincides with the moving averages entanglement presently. 

If I am to move further, the retracement measurement indicates further resistance at between RUB74.94 to RUB90.40.

At the same time, I am seeing moving averages in place indicating continuation instead of reversal. So it is possible that Ruble might continue to strengthen of the currency.

For the time being, it is still too early to come to any conclusion. I have to wait for more movement before I can see a clearer picture.

Fig 2. MOEX Weekly Chart

Moex movement is cleaner, yet I am also receiving conflicting signal from the chart.

Moex plunged after the invasion started, it has since corrected but continued its downslide thereafter. However, the movement lacks momentum and reversed at the end of July 2022.

For some reason, the technical set up at one point indicated Russia market was improving amid the invasion and sanction. Even the last 2 weeks, it was only pausing and rested above the 21-week moving average. Something happened this week caused the whole movement to collapse. It must be the anticipation of what Putin might want to convey in his speech to Russia. 

Using the RED line set up, I cans see support for MOEX at between 1,597 to 833. At present, I am seeing lower high with moving average stopping MOEX from ascending, it is higly likely for MOEX to reach this new low.

What if MOEX somehow decided to scrap it and climb further, then resistance can be seen at between 2,735 to 3,176. These levels coincide with the persent locations of the higher moving averages.