So Biden and Xi finally met at San Francisco...

 I practically did not trade this week. Not because I am lazy or procrastinate. I had a lot errant to run. 

On top of being the chauffer for my family, mother-in-law (for her clinical visits), and sending my car for service leading to a repair cost of SGD3,181, an "accident" happened on Monday evening with a forward parked car reversing out knocking onto the door of my car from the driver side. Even though it is the fault of the other car and that there was no damage noted from my car, while the rear view mirror of the other car was slightly tilted forward (with no damage neither). I had to make my way to the accident reporting center in case the other side decided to pull a fast one on me.

That cost my whole week.

Anyway, enough of my rant. Back to charting.

What happened recently? Oh yes. Xi met with Biden in San Fransico, USA on November 15th 2023. Was the meeting fruitful? I doubt so, especially when 2 of the worst performing world leaders meet.

What meaningful conclusion can be derived when neither can have consensus with the other?

One thing I suspect is China's ... or Xi's leadership is in jeopardy and the economy of his country continues to weaken. Xi must be very desperate to leaving his country risking potential coup from his party members. 

While the Chinese Communist Party maintained an appearance that everything is fine in China, it is not from ground level, otherwise Hang Seng will not be at where it is today.

How is China faring from technical analysis point of view?

For this entry, I will look at CNY and SSEC.

Fig 1. CNY weekly chart

My last check on CNY was surprisingly quite recent in CNY- an indication of health for China's economy dated 10th September 2023. 

I was of impression that CNy will continue to weaken against USD considering the trend of the chart. I estimated short term resistance at between 7.37439 to 7.54820 while a long term resistance at between 7.7293 to 8.0086.

While CNY broke the previous high with a new peak of 7.3510. Iit was stopped by the Bolinger envelop before reversing downward, falling short of my resistance estimation.

Is CNY reversing? It seems so, at least from MACD indication, that demonstrated multiple divergences. 

By the end of this week, it fell further, only to be stopped by my trusty 55-week moving average. The downward momentum, however, seems strong. I suspect it may pause at this level momentarily before heading further south.

For the moment, there at least 2 more support that I will need to take note on. The 89-week moving average at 7.0926, coinciding with a high on March 5th, 2023 at 6.9762. This will follow byu the 144-week moving average support presently at 6.9045.  

My rationale for this trend is not that CNY is getting stronger, but the weakening of the USD, as observed from my analysis published in Did SGD get weaker? dated November 19 2023. So may be it is not conclusive with CNY analysis alone. 

Let's look into the SSEC, short for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index.

Fig 2. SSEC weekly chart

My last check on SSEC was, surprise, surprise! done in August 7th, 2022 titled After thought of HKD and China indices. I cannot believe that it was so long ago!

At the time, I estimated SSEC with a down trend, estimating short term support levels to be between 2,579 to 2,901 while long term support between 993 to 2,038.

SSEC reached a low of 2,863 before reversing up. This is within my short-term support range. It did not go far, failing to reach its previous high of 3,708, stopped by a concentration oof moving averages, twice.

As far as I am concern, China economy is stagnated. I remember an entry I have made on China titled Is this the end of the China miracle? in January 26th, 2016. That was my first entry after I restarted my blogging project. 

In that entry, I noted the fall of SSEC from its second peak and estimated support at around 1,700, and with possibility of falling further.

It went to a low of 2,440 in 2018 before bouncing back up. 

While it has achieved higher highs and lows since then, they overlap each other, indicating a pattern for counter wave congestion. This means that it will likely continue downward once its 3-wave pattern has completed.

In addition, its development since then as created a potential head and shoulder, giving more indication of its intended direction.

Based on its major move, the long-term support level is estimated to be between 1,002 to 2,044. The short-term support level on the other hand lies between2,564 to 2,892. 

What about the head and shoulder, using Fibonacci expansion, the objective is estimated to be 2,003. This however, requires SSEC to breach its neck line, it might lead to a higher target which coincide with the long term 61.8% projection of 2,044.

There is still a possibility of SSEC heading the other way, should SSEC break the congestion band upward, this is less likely presently. It may reach an objective of around 4,000.