Is SSEC going up or down

I have been working on SSEC wave count for some time and it has not been successful. The counter trend in 2008 wiped out almost the whole progress of the index. I was actually having difficulty due to the alternate count. The index could either be a 3 or 5 wave down. So it really depends on the 2009-2010's move to determine if it is in B or a new wave.


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

Looking at its recent move, it is now quite certain that SSEC is in process of making a symatrical triangle. Although this gives equal chance for up and down. The move prior to this indicates a higher probability of an upward trend. The initial count seems to tell me that it has completed the 3rd wave and is now in the 4th.

However, if I stick strictly to the theory, there are 2 more waves before it breaks out. So SSEC it would seem still inside the congestion zone.