Wave Count of SSEC

I have been following up on the Malaysian by-election at Ulu Selangor recently. They day of balleting day is tomorrow. The whole event running up to polling day has been nothing less than furious fight between the two parties. The stakes are high for both side. If BN wins, it is a sign of reversal into BN's direction. If PR wins, Zaid would be officially be entering the Parliament.

Both teams uses a lot of the smearing campaign, of course, as usual, UMNO continues to dump money to buy more votes. For this round, I worry for PR. Their performance lately has how should I say? Rather disappointing. The alliance has done more in trying to fight against BN rather than strengthening their position. That means they have been slack in serving their constituency. Of course BN never did in the past. But such action from PR only let people think that they are no different from BN, so why change the vote?


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

Anyway, enough of that and this time I look at SSEC again. My last entry indicated much difficuties in counting its wave. I am still having the same trouble. From the weekly chart, a symmetrical triangle is in progress. Having been through a 5 wave down much earlier, SSEC should be in progress of a 3 waves up. The symmetrical triangle seems to denotes a 'abcde' B wave after an A. However, I am unsure.

For one thing, the movement from Sept 2008 to Nov 2008 is a 5 wave movement DOWN, so I have to consider that this is a mega-A wave. Therefore it should now be in process of B wave. If I consider the movement from Nov 2008 till Aug 2009 to be A of the B wave, the triangle would be its B wave and C should be after that.

The number of wave that I see on the triangle is 'abcd' it short of an 'e', meaning uncompleted.


Fig 2 SSEC Daily Chart

Here is my delima, on the daily chart,I can see that SSEC is in process of a potential flag. This is not good because SSEC is breaking the lower envelop as we speak, or as I speak.The result is a minimum objective of 2,783. If this come true, the next to happen would be the fulfillment of the triangle's objective, 2,293. If the daily scenario comes true, then what we see now is a completion of B of B wave and moving into C of B.

As for the indicators, the weekly indicators are turning down although there is not divergence. Divergence is not very common in weekly chart, although there are times we see it. So it is quite safe to deduce that we are seeing a C now.

the indicators on daily basis is on the other hand at the bottom, however, I would expect a formation of divergence before they moves up. This would mean SSEC going further south before its reversal.

I do not see SSEC to be a good place to stay for the short term. Unless, the lower envelop of the triangle manage to hold and the flag formation fails. Then the triangle complete with the e and thus moving up next to complete C, not C of B. Base on the indicators, the odds for this is much lower.