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My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

10/02/2013

US Government shut down, is the market on Republican side?

I think USA is a very interesting country, there are 3 components in the Government system with the President, Congress and Senate. Even with only 2 parties, check and balance can be achieved with one party only need to control one of the components.The only way to make sure a law or legislation is passed is to negotiate and compromise between parties. Such move can ensure short coming of the bill is flushed out, thereby benefiting to the people. However, what if negotiation and compromise is not possible?

Such is the case with US now with Congress blocking the spending bill to stop Obamacare, leading to a shut down of the Government system. I do not know and understand much about how it works, and based on inputs from CNN, it started with Obamacare. A group of Republican called themselves Tea Party opposed to the Obamacare and wanted to shut it down. So a guy called Meadow suggested to tie Obamacare to a spending bill for the Government agency, this in turn force the Democrates to have remove Obamacare or risk a Government shut down.

It seems like the strategy back fired, Democrates won't budge and the bill not passed, resulting in what's happening today. So far this is the best I can understand of the situation in USA politics right now.

Anyway, I am not a politician and know less about how politics works, that is why even in analysis I choose to look at pictures rather than trying to understand past earnings and what the implications are, yep! I suck at Fundamentals.

So is the market supporting Republicans? I wanted to write this article because I was talking to my father and he was saying that the stock markets are going up. However, if you look at the chart right now on weekly basis. You will realise that a shooting star has already been formed 2 weeks ago and Dow Jones has descended since last week.Further more, both RSI and Stochastics are on down trend right now, I think it is little chance that the market supports the move made by Republicans.

It is such a pity because the market has been on general up-trend all these while indicating recovery for US economy.

The index is presently supported by its 21 days moving average. As I have last writen, it was in a reverse triangle and I am amazed that the timing of this event coincide with Dow Jones touching the triangle envelop. I think it is quite likely that a small head and shoulder will be formed to justify for its down trend, probably to 13,500.

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