Meta ..... there should be a moment of self awareness

The first time I came across meta was under the term meta model expressed in NLP meant for probing of the mind. It was model after Virginia Satir who is a great family therapist and is a great tool in getting into the mind of people. I ever used the questioning technique to make people cry. Well, don't judge me for that, it was therapeutic. 

Then Mark Zuckerberg renamed his company Meta, I guess he wanted it to have a more holistic approach. Definitely not a good idea as the market perceived it as an attempt to distract people from the ill performance of the company. 

On a serious note, Facebook (previous name of Meta) started appearing woke after Trump was elected president. Mark Zuckerberg event went to the extent of sponsoring part of the last election hopefully to influence the outcome. 

Really not a good move especially when it involves a business entity. When the company started to be driven by political ideology, it loses its priority as a profit focus company. Because it takes side in the political arena, its business decision tends to be bias. Such is the case of Facebook or Meta when they started censoring opposing views claiming extremism, it started losing membership which is the greatest asset of its business. So get woke, go broke like every other business ventures.

There is quite some talk on Meta this week, primarily its stock price, claiming that it has dropped 28% within the week, and that was after Meta complaint that men are difficult to handle. I have decided to take a look.

Fig 1. Meta Weekly Chart

I am not showing the complete chart here as it goes all the way bac to 2012. It went the lowest of 17.55 on Sept 2012 in that chart. as of this Friday, it went to a low of 96.38 and closed at 99.20, a far cry from its peak at 384.33. The present value is a mere 25.8% of its highest point.

I assume it's listing in 2012, it took 9 years for this counter to grow from a mere USD17.55 to USD384. It only took 1 year for it to drop all the way to 99.20. I can't imagine if a person short this counter at its peak and ride it all the way down, he must have made quite a lump sum.

Mark on the other hand, should be panicking, he needs to answer his shareholders whose share are getting close to toilet paper value. Meta really needs to change its captain to do a turn around as the previous strategy is no longer effective. May be the company needs to start checking in with its members to see how it can improve itself, rather than riding on the Mark's latest ventures, which is a virtual reality concept adapted from Second Life many years ago. 

Back to the chart, the way I look at it, Meta seems to be on a 5 wave down. Now some may ask how is this possible, should down trend be on a 3-wave pattern? Yes and no. It really depends whether it is doing an A wave. While its plunge is rather serious and close to 100% retracement, it is highly possible to be in A wave. 

By using the 3rd and 4th wave of the A wave, I can estimate 2 support levels, 133 which it has surpassed, and the next level is 69.97.

But considering the aggressiveness of its descent, we might not see a B wave. It is possible that Meta is going under. At this point of time, the descent is too steep, meaning strong momentum in the direction, the 89-week moving average just crossed the 144-week in golden cross indicating more down slide even though there is very little space for maneuver. This is further supported b the alignment of all moving averages.

Probably Elon Musk can start considering adding Meta to his collection. Wait till it drop further and may be buy at a lower price than Twitter.