Interesting development in SGD...and I missed the entry point on SGDMYR

 This is the fifth day of my quarantine for Covid-19. I would have been very happy if I am working under a firm, Covid-19 patients are still getting 7 days MC and this would be a good opportunity to take a good rest from work even when you are healed on the 4th day. Unfortunately, I am working for myself and I can't deceive myself. sigh.....

Anyway,I was on CNY during the weekend with a simple entry China intervention of CNY . However, as the week coming close to the end, it seems like the confirmation has not really arrived.

Fig 1. CNY weekly chart

I mentioned during the weekend that its movement is important this week as it will confirm or deny the reversal formation of the shooting star. It is Thursday and CNY barely moved. 

Is it possible that the Chinese government saw a retraction of CNY descend last week and thought that the worst was over and therefore no action needed? Or maybe they are the work on Friday people deciding to monitor the whole week before taking action? Or is there a different fraction of people who are selling CNY while China selling USD, thereby neutralizing the effect?

Nevertheless, if CNY maintain this pattern till the end of this week, it is likelihood that reversal is still not in sight yet. 

Anyway, while glancing through the currency sector, I did a check on SGD yesterday. I recall my last entry on SGD was 1st May 2022, titled Re-visiting USDSGD, I can't believe that it was that long. I estimated the resistance at 1.40, it broke through with its peak at 1.449. While I looked through SGD yesterday, I found something interesting.

Fig 2. SGD weekly chart

Apparently, SGD also did a shooting star last week, except that its body was green that may still indicate a continuation.

Beginning of this week, it opened higher, but receded and even broke the low of last week's low. 

This created a very different scenario; SGD formed an Engulfed pattern. Even though it has still to reach the end of the week and required another week of movement for confirmation, I am seeing potential reversal here for SGD.

What does it mean?  Possibly cheaper chicken at the supermarket? What might be more important is a cheaper oil price. Why?

While oil price was dropping the last few weeks, it was because the strengthening of USD, it did not translate to cheaper oil price locally as long as currency of the country I reside depreciates against USD. The depreciation neutralizes the lower oil price.

There is another assumption I can make from this, USD may be weakening or correcting after its mad dash up-ward.

I may not want to estimate its support as yet, since the formation is not completed. I will definitely come back to this counter for a more thorough study.

What of its neighbor, Malaysia?

I took interest in this counter because I wanted to convert some Malaysian Ringgit to SGD, and I wondered when it was a good time to do so?

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart

I did a brief glance during the mid of last week and noted a flag formation broke out and at the time it reached the 21-week moving average support. It has not reached its objective. I figured I can wait.

Well, that WAS a wrong decision.....

It failed to break the moving average and rebounded, then went higher this week. It is presently resisted by the Bollinger band. But looking at the behavior of the bar and the band envelop, I believe that it will go higher. It may congestion outside the envelop next week.

SGD is strengthening.