How is the market judgement on PRU15 of Malaysia

 I have meant to have this entry earlier, However, I found it with a little bit of difficulty in compartmentalize the article. Primarily, I have to interpret the chart and match it with the political development of the country.

Nevertheless, my previous entry With no clear majority..., I have noted the potential move of MYR towards its 55-week moving average, while KLSE is hitting its resistance at 55-week moving average. This was after the result of election indicating no one party or coalition with a clear simple majority. 

A month has passed since then, how is Malaysia doing now that we have a new government to lead the country?

Here is the issue, we are not yet at the end of the week therefore this week's bar is incomplete. Therefore, there is still some uncertainty in the predictions.

Let's start with KLSE.

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

KLSE actually tested the 55-week moving average and then retreated. It did not reverse, instead in a seemingly congesting, stuck between 2 moving averages. It is still uncertain if KLSE will stay above the 8 and 21-week moving averages.

If it breaks, there is a high chance that KLSE is going to head south.

Using a projection measurement, this will lead to a support level of between 1,349 to 1,408.

If on it manage to hold and head northward, the resistance level to note will be 1,505 to 1,535. It coincides with the 144-week moving average. However, this measure is with the assumption that we are at the lowest bar this week, which is yet to complete.

What about the Malaysia currency, MYR?

Fig 2. MYR weekly chart

MYR actually managed to break the 55-week moving average but moved back up-ward in subsequent weeks. However, like KLSE, there is no momentum in MYR, giving me a feeling of a flag formation. It presently managed to stay above the 55-week moving average.

However, I my re-iterate that the week is ot yet complete and it is possible that MYR will sink below the moving average by end of tomorrow.

Nevertheless, I have to establish some assumption. Including that MYR may retrace back to its 38.2% level at 4.4496, coincidentally is the 21-week moving average presently.

Only after this retracement that MYR may, and I must emphasize "may" head downward to between 4.1186 to 4.2664.

On a side note, it seems that the market is still not verry confident with the new government, the first parliament meet really did very little to address the economic situation of Malaysia. Instead, the members including the prime minister having useless arguments. The prime minister even warred the side to behave themselves. 

I thought to myself," should this not be the job of the speaker of the house?" This should not be a concern of the prime minister, He is there to answer question, it is the speaker of the parliament to decide the validity of the question ask and the conduct of the members.

Up-till now, the parliament meet looks more like a monkey show and Anwar Ibrahim has an urge to demonstrate his control. I really do not find much confidence in this government, especially when they now have the ability to change the constitution.