With no clear majority...

 19th Nov 2022 marks Malaysia's 15th general election PRU15. This is by far the most complex round of election with some constituencies having up to 10 candidates. With multiple party break ups, many parties and alliances are formed to contest in this round of election, people are spoilt for choice. However, only a few major alliances really powerful enough to withstand this clash.

The result is: No clear majority even though the top 2 alliances claimed to have majority to form the government. The fact that these parties formerly claimed not willing to work with one another making difficult to achieve that objective, unless of course they swallow their pride and integrity "FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY".

While I went to the market today, many elderlies were gathering discussing about what has just happened. They imagine the nightmare of anarchy where no prime minister to decide the direction of the country. 

I am on the other hand very happy as this is the result I dream of: With no clear majority, whoever is the prime minister, and the ruling coalition will SUFFER! They will be held accountable by others, and they have to on their toes on every policy introduced.

This will be necessary since we are seeing hard times coming. 

However, this blog is more for technical analysis than politics, the latter is for the other blog.

I am not sure how PRU15 will affect the market tomorrow. Economy wise, Malaysia has little influence on the world market. I will, however, still proceed with reading MYR and KLCI (KLSE), for record purposes and to track the accuracy of technical analysis.

I have entries on KLSE in The result of multiple years of political turmoil in Malaysia, and MYR in Malaysians are getting poorer...?I have predicted resistance for MYR at 4.80 to 5.40 ( it passed the short term resistance of 4.59 to 4.585), while support level of 1,484 to 1,400 and target of 1,400. There was also a head and shoulder delivering a support level of 1,339 to 1,255.

How did I fare on these predictions?

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

For MYR, Mahathir is not ready to meet Soros at 5. In fact Mahathir has lost his deposit. 

While meeting the zig zag objective of 4.585, it has still to reach its expansion as well as its triangle objective of around 5.40. 

For the last 2 weeks, MYR has been strengthening after its peak at 4.746. However, the plunge every week was strongly supported by the moving averages that it has crosses, leaving a long tail behind.

My suspicion is that there is further strengthening of this currency testing its 55-week moving average at 4.415, coincidentally the envelop of the triangle. It is possible for the counter to reverse at this point, especially when the moving averages are with strong support for an up-trend.

What of KLCI (KLSE)?

Fig 2. KLSE Weekly Chart

KLSE has reached my estimated support of 1,400 and came with are strong rebound. it however, was stopped and congesting at the 21-week moving average while supported by 8-week moving average, in another word, it is stuck in between. It may need some energy to break through.

What happen if it breaks through?

There is another strong 55-week moving average as the next level of resistance, coincidentally the neckline of the head and shoulder. 

Right, there is another objective that KLSE yet to meet, 1,339 to 1,255 as mentioned in the l;ast KLSE up-date.

Apparently, it is not a good time to take over the government, those who have lost may curse and swear now but may be glad it is not them to answer why the government can't handle the worsening economic performance.

As for my favourite candidate, Khairy Jamaluddin, take a good rest for now as you deserve it.