Procastination

I meant to include this entry last week, I was disrupted by my travel to Kuala Lumpur to visit my mum and brother. 

Having said that, I did bring my laptop on my trip, together with my portable monitor. The set up enable trading function as long as there is network connection. Plus, I have managed to work on the charts during the weekend. So what stopped me from proceeding?

Nope, it is not that I am lazy, because I was motivated to work on my other interests. The only thing that I dragged was the struggle I needed to go though in completing the essay, including entering the data values such as resistance and support levels. 

In adidtion, my interest in trade are Hang Seng and Nikkei, while Dow Jones provides a rough gauge of the market health. My interest for GBP and EUR is much lower on the ladder, my motivation on studying these 2 counters and their relationship is low unless some impact on international market.

My last entry on these 2 countes is Divergence  between GBP and EUR dated 3rdc September 2023. I was with the impression then that EUR with confirmation on a continuation downtrend while there is yet indication on GBP. It is possible at the time that GBP and EUR will diverge from each other.

The one chart that I did not include in my earlier study was EURGBP which reveal their relationship.

Fig 1. EURUSD weekly chart

As per my prediction in my earlier entry, EUR broke down crossing the previous low of 12th March 2023 before bouncing back up. However, EURUSD failed to cross its previous peak of 16th July 2023, stopped by its Bollinger band.

As of this week, it has fallen back to below its 144-week moving average.

I believe that the direction is general direction is still down because EUR behaves like it is in C wave of the counter wave. 

Using Projection, it will find support at 1.0643, 1.0324 and 1.0096. I believe higher chance of EUR reaching between USD1.0096 to USD1.0324.

There is a chance that EUR will fall further due to its major set up, 1.0448 is crucial level to watch for. Should this level be violated, it is possible for us to see a target of 0.951676 to0.845533.

If EUR manages to hold of its descend, we may see a climb of up to between 1.1572 to 1.22378.

Fig 2. GBPUSD weekly chart

GBP did not deviate from EUR since my last prediction, it however, did not descend as much as EUR and did not cross the previous low of 1.1803 before rebounding upward. while it congests after its climb, it stays above the 144-week moving average.

Furthermore, there is not yet strong indication of a reversal.

I feel that there is a higher chance that GBP is going to get stronger.

It is possible for GBP to reach higher between 1.381765 to 1.492465.

There is however a chance for GBP to reverse downward. 1.2037 is the level to watch out for as this will become its previous low, this also coincides with its 61.8% projection support at 1.211155. Should this level be breached, we may see 1.168601.

It seems for the time being, both counters are at their junctions with some uncertainty of their directions.

so are they deviating from each other?

Fig 3. EURGBP weekly chart

EURGBP seem to be on a down trend while within a congestion. Furthermore, its recent move pushed the pair to below the moving averages, we may see further weakening of EUR against GBP. 

That present, the pair hovers above 0.8470 the 61.8% projection with support at 0.8470 and 0.85462. Breaking this, the next level of support will be 0.82721.

What may be the reason for such deviation?

After leaving the EU, there was a sense of euphoria in UK, with many dreamt of a bright future. However, after being part of EU for so long, it gained much influence from European culture, including those negative aspects. UK turned left, focusing on woke culture and becoming weaker. 

In the process it is losing its own culture and heritage, embracing the culture of Europe.

It was a right move to leave the EU. At the same time, there is internal conflict as certain fraction are in fear of independence and the lack of external support. they have forgotten that UK was once a strong nation with glorious achievements. 

The internal differences need to be flushed out before it can recover. I feel that UK has begun to realize that they have no other to depend on and they have to get back on their feet.

EU on the other hand, has maintained the same status as before, not learning from the Brexit even. In fact, many members of the EU lack strong economical drive pulling the whole EU down. The issue here is: EU is oblivious to the issues it is facing and lacks political will to reform. It is bulky and lacks the momentum to face changes in the world. In addition, there is a lack of unity between members as each has their own vested interest. 

EU needs to unify in their goal, or the alternative is continuing deterioration.