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My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

5/25/2025

USD is dropping, bad for US?

My last up-date on USD with SGD was Is USD in trouble? I was adamant that USD will continue to be weakened against SGD after retreating to the moving averages, and that 1.28653 will be a point to take note of. 

Since then, it retreated as I have expected and presently reached a low of 1.28384, closing at 1.28477. this is the 61.8% projection support of a major move.

I believe USDSGD is presently at a crossroad. Will it continue to go down, or reversing back up?

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

I believe USDSGD will continue till it reach 1.2733, the 100% projection support of a minor move. This will also coincide with the previous low of 1.27889.

Why I think so? 

Because there is not yet a signal for reversal, and the 100% projection support is the closest spot. However, there is a weakness with this hypothesis, it crosses the previous low, giving a much stronger indication of continuation.

Furthermore, the moving average alignment is more favorable with a down trend. 

I believe that it will retreat upward thereafter, and the next point to note will be 1.33215, which is the 55-week moving average, a correction should be in order and the 55-week moving average is a reliable zone to turn the USDSGD back down. 

I am still with the impression that USD will continue to retreat against SGD with the next objective at 1.23099, that will be in the long run, but it is still a little far fetch for now.

The question is: will it be bad for the US market?

The first effect will be a reduction in the purchase power of the people there, every import WILL become more expensive as a result, especially when it ties up with the US tariffs (which increases the price of imports but with immediate benefit to the US government's coffer). This will be a double whammy to its citizen.

This would probably explain why Trump's team is sweeping through cost cutting in the government sector with intention of parting some of the cost saving to the people.

On export wise, it reduces the price of US exports, it will be able to neutralize the counter tariff against the US products.

The issue here is the complexity added due to globalization, which leads to increase interdependency, increasing the cost of production. The only sector that may be least affected will be the service sector which is more IP driven and labor intensive.

What US really need now is the quality of its people, now in the direction of the so call "empathy" which drives many of its young people to irrationality. US need people with real skill, that will mean improvement in education with focus on Science and Mathematics, which is fundamental to engineering, the true building blocks of society.

It is unfortunate that US for many years moves in the wrong direction in its education system. Instead of focus building a stronger country, it intends to break it up.

What Trump is doing now is trying to reverse its trend, people will have to go through hardship before it can get better. Will the people follow Trump? 

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