SSEC reversing SO SOON?

It was 2 weeks ago that I have an entry for SSEC in Is China doing badly? I was adamant that SEC was actually heading upward with resistances between 3,174 and 3,225.  

Even though there are additional levels on my charts indicating resistances between 3,370 to 33,555, I have not included them as I did not anticipate a strong move to reach these levels.

There was another concern, the long term moving averages of 55, 89 and 144-week moving averages were still intact, meaning the possibility that there may be a little more downturn before going higher.

While gapping up the week after my entry, crossing the resistance levels that I estimated, it's climb was milder. 

I went back to KL over the weekend, which normally led to a pause in my entries. This time round, additional alteration of family matter led to my urgent departure back to Singapore. A complete disruption of my weekend.

Meanwhile, I started receiving videos about people getting burnt due to abrupt reversal. "Are they over-reacting?" I thought. Afterall, I just looked at SSEC because of similar claim and it turned out to be false 2 weeks ago.

So I took a look at this counter again this week.

Fig 1. SSEC weekly chart

The week opened with a huge gap up, even violating my 100% and 127% projection, went above the 161.8% projection. Not only that it went much beyond the Bollinger envelop resistance.

The move this week also crossed the previous high, justifying a double bottom formation with objective of 3,711, which it was close to reaching.

Unfortunately, the surge was too strong leading to an equally strong pull back, with SSEC eventually closing within the band and coincidentally, its 100% projection. 

The movement also created a candlestick formation called Dark Cloud Cover uniquely for uptrend. This is a reversal pattern mark the beginning of a down trend. The 2-bar formation makes an equivalent shooting star.

So is SSEC reversing down?

If based on the candlestick formation, there is no need for confirmation of reversal. Furthermore, the momentum of its downward movement this week is strong, leading to the possibility that it would be on a down trend from now on.

The problem is that there was a gap up prior to the incident, and the move this week failed to cover the gap. 

In addition, it hung onto the Bollinger envelop after this forced reversal.

It gives me the feeling that while it may be heading down further in the coming week, there may be limited downside. Afterall, the 55-week moving average support is close by at 3,016. 

There is another scenario though, if SSEC inch back higher with candlesticks of small bodies, it will be indication to me that there is a continuation downward that may eventually surpass the 55-week moving average support level.