Moving on to REITs

in my entry Revisiting developers of Singapore last week, I focused on those who involve in building projects. So it will be good to follow up with those who manage the rental, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT).

There may be quite a few entities involve in REIT, there are 4 REITs that are more reliable for investment: CaptaLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust and Keppel DC REIT.  

These REITs mainly involves in property management and rentals. Their focus segment are mainly commercial and industrial properties. Even though they have business oversea, Singapore is still their main base. 

Their business depends on the occupancy rate of the properties under their wings, therefore their business wellbeing will be a good indication the health of Singapore economy, and their share price show traders anticipation of Singapore market in the near future, at least 1/2 year in advance.

So let's see where the REITs are heading and if all of them are aligned. 

For the time being, I see support at its minor 618% projection of SGD2.55. If this is breached, he next support will be at between SGD1.8585 to 2.3109.

Should it decided to break upward, on the other hand, it should reach its first resistance at its 618% projection of SGD3.2769, with its 100% projection resistance at SGD3.8229.

Fig 1. CapitaLand Ascendas Reit weekly chart

CapitaLand last peaked on 17th September 2024, it reachd its bottom by 11th April 2025 and attempted to recover since. It reached a high of SGD2.92 by 20th January 2026 before retreating, it has yet to reach its previous peak of SGD2.99.   

Its climb, however, was not done through a 5-wave pattern. Each low violated the previous high, indicating that this is a counter-wave behavior, meaning that its downward movement is yet to complete. 

Furthermore, divergence is seen on its volume in its latest climb. The potential for further downslide is high.

To be frank, CapitaLand seems to be bottomed out on 21st October, 2022 and in process of bottom formation since. However, it appears that it is not ready for breakout.

Fig 2. Frasers Centrepoint Trust weekly chart

While having a similar pattern as CapitaLand Ascendas, Fraser Centerpoint Trust failed to reach a new high from its climb since 23rd February 2020. Its climb ended by 8th September 2020 and continued to congest since.

IT seemingly reached a bottom by 8th November 2022 at SGD1.90. Its upward climb since resembles that that of counter wave. I suspect it has yet to complete its downward movement. 

For this counter, I will see support at its 61.8% projection of SGD1.9592. If it manages to break through this level, the next support will be its 100% projection of SGD1.6423.

On a lesser chance of an upward breakthrough, its next resistance will be at 61.8% projection of 2.6323.

Fig 3. Keppel DC REIT weekly chart

Keppel DC REIT, like the 2 counters earlier, peaked in 2020. within a year of reversal from its bottom in March 2020 (thanks to Covid-19 lock down). It is not the worst of the 4 in performance, though reaching a high of SGD3.16.

However, it experienced a much steeper decline to bottom at SGD1.74 by 17th October 2022. Since then it spent 2 years in bottom formation creating what seem to be a double bottom by 21st October 2024. Unfortunately, it seems to fail in its outbreak, correcting itself till 7th April 2025. 

It retested the neckline by 16th June 2025 and has since retreated back, even though managed to reach a higher high of SGD2.44 by 15th September 2025.

There is a divergence warning from MACD, indicating potential weakness in its upward move. At the same time, the counter seems to be weak in its momentum, with overlapping bars while climbing higher.

The chance of downward slide is much higher at this point of time, even though the moving average alignment still supports an upward move.  What does it mean to me?

Its MA alignment is very different as compared to other REITs in discussion, while others have their MAs all entangled, there are much larger gaps between the MAs in Keppel DC. It is possible that Keppel DC WILL move higher in in short term, with potential resistance at its Bollinger envelop presently at SGD2.4302. 

This is also supported by the crossing of MACD after reaching its negative domain. 

Its resistance? the most immediate one will be its 61.8% projection of SGD2.3093. Should it manage to break this level and reverse the gradient of Bollinger envelop, its next level of resistance will be its 100% projection of SGD2.6003.

On the down side, I am seeing a 61.8% projection support at SGD1.4747. 

 Fig 4. Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust weekly chart

Of the 4 REITs, Parkway Life REIT seems to be the most trusted by investors, with its share managed a high of SGD5.20 by 16th September 2025. 

In contrast to the 3 counters above, Parkway Life REIT managed to sustain its climb since 16th March 2020 reversal, only peaking by3rd January 2022, while the other 2 reversed by 2020. 

It followed with a head and shoulder top reversal, reaching its bottom of SGD3.33 by 23rd October 2023. 

While it seemingly in process of bottom formation, its gentle behavior does not seem to show its readiness to reverse up. Its lows violate its highs, failing the pattern of a 5-wave pattern, similar to the 2 counters analyzed earlier.

Divergence is noted on MACD with lower peak while it managed to new high in its most recent climb since its bottom in 2023.

The possibility of continuation downward is higher than upward reversal.

Its most immediate support is its 61.8% projection of SGD3.2589, breaking this, its next support will be its 100% projection of 2.5198.

Overall, I am seeing a prolonged side way movement of REITs, is it possible that we are seeing a saturation and stagnation in the REIT market, with no new business set up while the existing ones continue to survive? If this is the scenario. 

Probably the REITs option would be to expand their business oversea, which should be more than just the Asean region. 

I would not suggest China at this point of time, I believe China may be entering a stage of stagnation. the difference with China is its dictatorial nature of governance. 

The present batch of leadership under Xi Jing Ping certainly lacks the competence in reversing the economic situation of the country. It made worse when its leader obsession to staying in power. China is heading in the direction of North Korea, introducing policies meddling with the economic direction.

I do not foresee any improvement for China until a change in leadership.