The three little dragons, what is happening to them now?

 I went for a family trip to Taiwan the last week, transiting through Hong Kong.

One might ask " why not fly direct?"

First of all, Hong Kong has been one other our common destination, and the last time my family went there was 2017, the year I got retrenched. Furthermore, lots have changed due to political interference since our last visit, and it is worth witnessing what changed since then.

Second, by transiting, we are able to arrange an overnight stay in Hong Kong, that gives us much time to have a last look at Hong Kong on our last family trip for a long time to come.

Yes, I believe that it will be difficult for us to go on another trip as a family after this. My son is going into National Service (NS) by next year. When his commitment ends in 2 years' time, my daughter will be heading out to the work force. By then, it will be difficult to coincide our time for another round of trip like this.

It was not smooth sailing for this trip though. We started with a flight delay began with 40 minutes, ended with a total of 2 hours wait on the plane, finally departing at 3:15AM in the morning. 

As a result, we landed at Hong Kong Chek Lap Kwok Airport in Hong Kong at close to 8:00AM in the morning, with our next flight departing in around 1/2 an hour time. It led to a mad dash from one far end of the airport, took the transit train through 3 stops toward the other extreme end of the airport. 

We eventually managed to board the flight, but our checked-in luggage failed to do so, only managed to reach us at 10PM after recovered and took the last flight of the day, with much help from the Taiwan Luggage management team at the Taichung Airport. 

The rest of the trip were a walk in the park neither. We walked around 10km per day for 8 days straight. We were all drained out by night, our feet hurt, it was difficult for us to even stand straight, and we ended with difficulty in walking. Nevertheless, it was a fruitful family trip after all. 

So what did I see in Taiwan and Hong Kong? Lots and lots of people, be it on the train, train stations, on the streets and shopping malls. It is just people everywhere. 

There are some different though, the prices. While food and merchandise inTaiwan is quite affordable, Hong Kong is basically see, no touch. Things are VERY expensive in Hong Kong, and this come from me, a person who stays in Singapore, known to be a very expensive place. Hong Kong easily outmatched both Taiwan and Singapore on this.

Taiwan on the other hand has very distinct line on pricing, by city and by classes. Restaurants are in general much pricy while street food is very affordable. Furthermore, its public transport I believe is heavily subsidized, making it very cheap. buses for instance is fixed rate of around 20yuan (less than SGD1.00) per trip. Even thr high speed rail that enable a trip from Taichungin to Taipei in 40 muntes only costs 600yuan (SGD27 per person).

Between Taichung and Taipei. it is about 1:3 in ratio. 3 nights in Taichung cost us SGD300+ while SGD1,000 for a 4-night stay in Taipei. 

On the surface, it hints to me that both Hong Kong and Taiwan are doing well. So the question is: Is this align with their indices?

Fig 1 TWSE monthly chart

I am surprise my last up-date of Taiwan TWSE was Taiwan... on 6th Nov 2013. The blog even lost the attached chart. I mentioned at that point of time that Taiwan was in a worse state than Singapore as it retreated to below the 1998 level, mainly the result of its industrial migration to China, causing a slump in Taiwan economy.   

Since then, Taiwan was making attempt to recover, taking a total of 8 more years. It has it thanks to Covid-19 (remember? The one event that lifted the world out of potential recession by locking everyone up in their own home). Its index is now more than double, reaching new3 high of 28,590 this week.

Taiwan main support to its economy is high tech manufacturing from waffer fabrication to contraction manufacturing supporting major players such as AMD, Nvidia, and Apple. Its focus on technology development gave it an edge over its competitors. 

The index is on a upward climb, but not in the form of 5-wave pattern since the "4th wave" violated the peak of 1st.It is also difficult for me to classify it to be in process of 3rd, because again the"4th" violated the 1st of 3rd.

The main concern here is the climb is at above 65 Degree, very strong momentum and need to be alert as correction can be as sudden. Do far there is no indication of reversal.

At present, I see resistance at between 29,058 to 32,223.

I also assume the data to be correct. While there was a huge dip on week of 20th Apr 2025, it stopped at 55-week monthly support. With such steep climb I believe that it is close to another round of correction. By then, support likely be at 19,738, its present 55-week moving average. My suspicion is that it will be a 3-wave movement lasting a much longer period (congestion).

Fig 2 Hang Seng weekly chart

While I see huge crowd at Taipei main station, it is due to its interchange nature, comprising of high speed rail, Airport transport, MTR and regional train system. Many people transacted through this station. People become scarcer outside this area. Plus, Taiwan public transport may still need improvements.

It is different for Hong Kong, it is people everywhere, be it in the MTR, on the street at the airport, inside the mall, inside small shops. Hong Kong has certainly not lack of visitors.

However, feedback from an Uber driver reflected that a difference on these visitors, which is much different than before. They are less willing to spend. Further observation noted that there are much lesser on the street having Chinese accent, I mean China type of Chinese, unlike my last visit.

True enough, while still planned by the Chinese ruling party from Beijing, this round of officials behaves differently as compared to the las, led by Carrie Lam, a blind follower of the Chinese communist leadership with anxiety to please. Indeed Carrie Lam is sinner of thousand past for Hong Kong, single handedly destroying the whole territory.

The present batch lead by John Lee focuses less on pleasing his master in Beijing, instead doing his best to revive the Hong Kong economy, which was damaged by Carrie Lam. While his team seemingly lacks competency in improving the situation, I believe they are doing their best.

The damage is done, my wife and I notice the different. Hong Kong seems to lack the drive we used to experience. They seem to be less hopeful of the future. A walk on the streets also noted the closing of small and medium retails. What in place is demolishment of old shop houses to amass a much larger plot o land to build a bigger infrastructure. Gone are the neon lights which gives Hong Kong its title of being the pearl of the east. 

My hope is that Hong Kong is left to heal itself. After master mind the destruction of Hong Kong, Xi seems set interest on another project, that is the destruction o Hainan Island (he seems to have a innert dislike to prospering area of China). Just hope that he leaves Hong Kong alone.

So what does the index say?

My last update on Hang Seng was in surprise! My condolance to charlie Kirk dated April 2025. 

It is quite interesting that I felt there was limited upside then. It managed to climb higher, but mildly, and congested after that. I believe that it is about to correct with support at its 55-week moving average presently at 23,944.

In my last analysis, I used projection to estimate its resistance. This time round, I assume a break out f its double bottom and utilize extension to predict a positive objective. 

It is presently close to its 61.8% extension of 27,724, which it will face further resistance. Breaking through this, its double bottom minimum objective should be 30,799.

his contradict my past prediction that was bearish in nature based on its multi-year double top formation. There is still a certain level of resilient in Hong Kong, it is not ready to die of. 

But again, it really need to be less dependent on China and open up more to the world. 

Fig 3 STI weekly chart

I really can't believe that after so many years, Singapore STI is still at the level of thousands.

this is probably due to the demography different of Singapore, with its people strength in management and organization management. As such it attracts MNCs to build regional office partially due to its high level of proficiency in English.

In addition, there is less uncertainty in Singapore where it is leaning more towards the west, as compared to Hong Kong and Taiwan. While Taiwan is eager align itself more with the west, it however, is not as proficient in English as compared to Singapore.

Howeve, I believe Singapore is not a place to amass capital, since its stock market is highly regulated, making it more challenging for its stock market to fluctuate. the government objective is stability, as such fluctuation in the stock market is an uncomfortable stimulus to the authority, especially after the tromour of 1996 attack by Soros.

Unlike Hong Kong with main focus on properties and tis stock market, or Taiwan with its dominance in electronics, Singapore economy is actually very diversified. It may surprise people that Singapore is a huge exporter in furniture, ornamental fishes and even coffee. This on top of its main contributor in oil refinery, port service, air hub, biomedical and electronics.

What of the index?

It's STI is on a gradual climb, very different from that of Taiwan TWSE and hong Kong Hang Seng. At present, there no signal of reversal, neither is there divergence.

At this point of time, I see resistance at 4,688, with support 4,499. China announcement of creating free trade port in Hainan does not seem to affect its climb and i is still reaching higher high.