War time is inflationary, gold is inflationary, why is gold coming down?

I have not been looking at Gold for quite a while, my last entry on this was Met a person from a Singapore team trading gold dated 28th February 2026. 

At the time, despite there was a sudden jot at the time, I was adamant at the time that gold should be on continuation upward as there was not yet indication of reversal.

It did not manage higher high, only reaching a high of 5,405 before reversing downward. There was still not any indication of trend change.

It fell close to its 55-week moving average at the time, corrected and later pushed through this support last week. While attempting to reached upward, it is now resisted by the same 55-week moving average this week.

As my recollection goes, old is inflationary, and there is a war going on in the middle east, disrupting the oil supply, why then gold is coming down?

To answer this question requires fundamental ability, unfortunately it is not my field of expertise. As for me, I am truly puzzled. 

anyway, gold is going down, meaning that there is no inflation. Next question: will gold be going own further or reversing?

Fig 1. Gold weekly chart

As like the previous up-date, I have not seen divergence of its direction, only confirmation.

Gold has just crossed its 55-week moving average on its down trend. and this week testing this support turned resistance, ending with a Doji uncertainty.

What else o I see? While it is on its continuation downward, its gradient became more gradual, indicative of a reduction in momentum.

At the same time, it just reached its more recent 61.8% projection support level of 4,054, as well as its earlier 127% projection of 3,932. My experience of this support level is a potential correction before continuation. 

Adding to its more gradual downward gradient, I anticipate a reversal upward at this time, retesting its 55-week moving average in the coming week. Should it stay above this level in the coming week, I should see a trend upward in the near future. I should see resistance between 4,263 to 4,705. The later coincides with 38.2% retracement level of 4,656.

If, however, it fails and congest, I will see it to go further downward. The next level of support then should be its more recent 100% projection of 3,556. This also coincides with its earlier 161% projection of 3,523.

What interesting is its MACD, which is fluctuating at extreme level. It normally oscillates at between -74 to 142. However, its recent movement went as high as 524 to a record low of -249. At the same time, I also notice the full length of each bar is much longer, giving the impression of top formation in progress.

I believe Gold may be unstable and fluctuation may be more erratic.

For the time being, I believe reversal upward is of higher probability for gold. 

On a side note, there is another formation. The present 61.8% projection of 4,054 also coincide with the neckline of a potential double top formation, which will result in a minimum objective of 2,628. However, this is quite far-fetched at this point of time. Zig-zag pattern resulting in objective of 3,556 is more probable.