Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023

It is 3 weeks since my last entry. For some reason, I was very reluctant to type anything. Not that I was lazy, the charts looked to me were so uninteresting, they all seem to at a crossroad and gave me a sense of uncertainty. I ended up moving away from charting for 2 weeks. 

I guess the timing was right, since my family was preparing a trip to Bangkok, Thailand, and we flew there last weekend. 

I remember my first trip to Bangkok was 1998, I went there for a job interview, I was surprised and impressed at how advance Bangkok was at the time. They have a flourishing economy and a strong industry. The people were resilient with ability to bite through hardship in life.

I was more surprised when Thailand viewed Singapore as their competitor. They were at one point competing against Singapore to be the hub for regional flight, it was only their language limitation that they lost.

They are also a constant threat to the Singapore seaport. There were a few occasions with consideration of building a canal joining the India ocean with Pacific Ocean, in effect cutting Singapore lifeline. Eventually, it was Thailand who rejected the proposal, considering the effect it will have on Singapore and that Thailand will be physically divided due to the canal, so Singapore rally owe Thailand big time on this.  

Bangkok did not disappoint me this round neither. It has fully recovered from the Covid-19 lockdown: The airport was buzzing with incoming flights and tourist; It has a huge collection of crowded mega malls and a very diverse range of local merchandise for different customer demand. 

Probably the only weakness for Thailand is literacy and its language barrier. I recalled the time I went for customer visits. The engineers I have met were very strong technically but could only communicate in Thai and could not handle English. If they improve on this aspect, I won't be surprised when they surpass Singapore.

Enough of the trip, let's go back to charting.

Since my entry on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023, time seems to fly very quickly and more than a month has past, it would seem appropriate for another entry on these 3 indices, after all, it has been a while.

Let's start with Nikkei  225.

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

Since the last up-date, Nikkei completed a 3-wave pattern hitting the support zone. Although rebounded, it did not seem to go on a continuation and failed to break the previous high. 

It is now at the 61.8% projection support of 31,916 and possibly hit the 100% projection support of 30,868. I will consider another level here, the 55-week moving average of 30,125,

However, I believe this is a correction as it is reversed from a major 61.8% projection and should continue upward after that, with a possible target of 39,232. 

Fig 2. Dow Jones weekly chart

I did not start my analysis with Dow Jones this round, because on top of the Fibonacci measurements, I sense something interesting about Dow Jones. It may not be anything be I still believe it is worth noting on.

While Dow Jones rebounded upward after its correction, the uptrend some what seems lacking in momentum. I feel that Dow Jones is in progress of a top formation. A top formation in general requires a round 3 years to complete. It may be possible a down-turn confirmation by next year should this be true.

For the time being, Dow Jones just reached the 55-week moving average. We may see a "reversal on the coming week due to this support. However, the MACD is showing a divergence, we should be seeing a tendency of continuation downward.

In this direction, we should see a support zone between 27,216 to 30,446. Should Dow break the lower limit of the support, we should see a confirmation of top formation.

Should it be on a continuation upward, the next level of support will be at 38,105.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng is very interesting, while I was negative on Hang Seng. It's down trend seems more like a counter wave, especially when the angle of down trend is gentle. It is possible that it will eventually result in a continuation upward.

For the time being, there are still more indication of down trend with support between 15,758 to 17,514. 

On a sideline, it is note that the Hong Kong government has finally started doing something. They announced the night market project.

It met with negative comments from many who are critical of the Hong Kong government. After all, many consider Hong Kong government as a puppet of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and have single handedly destroyed the city.

However, unlike the previous chief secretary who was an idiotic blind follower of the CCP. This new administration is making an attempt to improve the situation that Hong Kong is in.

The only problem here is: After under the "influence" of CCP for so long, the administration lacks the competence to drive the city. Furthermore, the tightening grip on its people and the purge on opposition leads to an outflow of its talents. 

Nevertheless, its attempt to improve on Hong Kong economy is a positive move.