Is the US market out of the wood?

 This week we witness President Putin landing on US soil, meeting with President Trump, initiating dialogue and hopefully an improvement of ties between the 2 countries.

Over the market, Dow Jones reversed upward on support of 8-week moving average. It also mildly broke through the previous high. The issue here is that Dow Jones is trying to breakthrough the 61.8% of a major projection. It is possible at this moment that it is going to happen. 

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

However, the climb this time is with a more gradual gradient, it indicates a weakening in momentum. The drop earlier, however, was much steeper.

I believe it will continue its uptrend, but it will be with difficulties.

There is also divergence on MACD, for every higher low on Dow Jones, the lows on MACD are lower. However, I have yet to see lower highs for confirmation.

After the major 61.8% projection, we should see further resistances at between 47,466 to 49,039. however, I think a more prudent level will be 52,688. which coincides with 127% level of major and minor projection.

Trump's tariffs definitely increase the revenue to the government. Its policies in cost cutting over all government agencies as well as its tackling on illegal immigrants enable further savings on unnecessary items. 

However, tariff is a double-edged sword, it will definitely lead to inflation. What Trumps administration needs to do here is to increase value employment and income increment. His policies on localized supply enablement definitely help secure jobs for the people.

Tariff also results in protectionism. In the short run, the country will see positive result in the economy. In the long run however, it will lead to weakening in local competitiveness due to dependency of such protectionism.

Let's do an up-date..

 I have not done this for a long time, and today I feel a little itchy because of the long weekend, I just felt like checking up on the charts.

Furthermore, I am too engrossed into 3-minute charts to the extent that I have not checked on its higher time frame. It may be a good time to have a change.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

My last up-date on the Dow was Now that the election is over, how it's going?, at the time I estimated that the Dow will climb a little further and I was contemplating a reversal.

It climbed mildly higher before a major plunge and rise back up again. It however failed to break through its previous high and began to retreat in fear of the effect of Trump's tariff on other countries.

It managed to get support at its 144-week moving average, with this week bouncing back towards its 55-week moving average. Coincidentally, this is also the 100% extension support, which is the minimum objective of its double top formation. It is also the 61.8% retracement support level.

I do not find this very good for the Dow though, because the bars are overlapping. This indicates a congestion instead of a reversal upward. 

In addition, I am seeing false break on 22/10/2024, indicating weakness on its up trend. 

I suspect it will continue to head upward with resistance, but it's down trend is yet complete.

However, I believe that the present down trend is a minor move, because there is still no confirmation from MACD. I think we are witnessing a top formation at this point of time. 

So where are the resistances and supports?

I really do not see any indication of uptrend. however, I can base on both the 55-weeks moving average and the Bollinger envelop as a guideline. We should see resistance at between 41,135 to 45,863. 

If it moves further downward, we should see support at its 261.8% projection of 36,280. This follows by its 78.6% retracement at 35,150.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last update on Nikkei was even earlier in Is Japan on continuation upward?, In that article, I was adamant that Nikkei was congesting but will climb higher with major resistances ahead.

It climbed higher with much difficulty, failed to reach the resistance level of my expectation, eventually succumbed to the threat of Trump's Tariff, plunging below its 144-week moving average, also breaking through its uptrend trend line. 

However, this is not the first time Nikkei breaks its trend line, there was a false break on week of 4/8/2024. The worrying part here is that the break on week of 6/4/2025 went further than 4/8/2024, not only creating a potential double top formation, but the latest break is also challenging its neckline.

The difference between Nikkei and Dow Jones, however, is its bar formation. While Dow Jones bars overlap, Nikkei did not. It is possible that Nikkei will correct better than Dow Jones. For the time being, the more probable resistance would be its 55-week moving average at 37,265.

It is relatively tough for me to estimate the direction Nikkei, mainly because it is at a crossroad at this point of time. Nevertheless, I believe Nikkei may have more room for down trend.

The main reason is due to MACD is in the negative zone at this point of time. Furthermore, it is presently at its 61.8% projection support level, giving me the impression of continuation after its correction. It's next level of support would be 28,826.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My update on Hang Seng was Dark cloud covers Hang Seng. I was with impression that Hang Seng was on the way down, with support at 55-week moving average. 

It went as I predicted, reversed at the support level and reached a higher high. However, this created a formation more common to a counter wave behavior. 

Furthermore, Hang Seng has just crossed 100% projection resisted by its 127% projection level. This followed by a major gap down back to its 55-week moving average.

While it was trying to recover itself, it was again resisted by its 21-week moving average.  

While I believe that this is would be a correction, I think it is trying to cover the gap and will be in continuation downward after this.

From here on there are a few support levels, including its Bollinger envelop of 18,181, its 61.8% projection support of 14,477.

What if it goes further higher? 

ITs next level of resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 22,227 and Bollinger envelop of 24,979. 

Now that the election is over, how it's going?

 

In my entry 2 weeks ago titled US election is right around the corner..., I maintained a bearish opinion on Dow Jones while indicating the possibility of bullish surge after the election, which is a common phenomenon, I mentioned of a resistance at 44,932, Dow reached a high of 44,163 on the week of election and 44,496 this week before retreating. 

I have also mentioned in my entry that US is in a phase of distribution based on technical analysis concept. Trump's win may be able to reverse the status quo. It really depends on the will power the people to look forward instead of demanding equality of result. 

Road ahead for Trump's team is hard. At least for the time being, they are heading in the right direction, which is to tackle the deficit. Introduction of DOGE will help in reduction of overhead in the government to improve efficiency leading to cost saving. However, this indirectly means that Trump's team will be implementing austerity measure, which great for the long run, it is hard for the people in the short run. But again, will power. 

Trump does not have much time, because the measures that his team going to introduce is not going to be pleasing to the people. These will be hard measures requiring the team to bulldoze through. They in fact only have 2 years to achieve their goals instead of 4 years. Because if it is not properly managed, people will turn on them faster than they do on Biden and Kamala.

So where might Dow be heading next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

The bar formation these 2 weeks did not create any reversal candlestick formation. I do not see a reversal and it may be more of correction or congestion the coming week, with support likely to be between 39,456 to 42,740.

Having said that, while Dow Jones reached a higher high, its MACD did not. This leads to potential divergence indicating weakness in the Dow's climb.

Furthermore, the gradient of its latest ascension is more gradual as compared to that from the previous one. It is actually slowing down.

We may still see Dow hitting higher, though. It is in between supports and resistance levels as far as I can see. Its most immediate resistance is the 100% of its short run projection at 44,968. Crossing this will be its long run 100% projection resistance at 47,371. I believe the later will be a more likely possibility for reversal because it also coincides with the intermediate 127% projection.

US election is right around the corner...

I believe that it was XBox that released the Age Of Empire Mobile game this week. I remember that the first time I played the Age Of Empire was around 1996-98. That was the first version which I think closely resembles another game Civilization.

So I thought," why not give it a try, for old time sake."

Boy, have I made a BIG MISTAKE?

While there are some nostalgia of the original Age Of Empire, it is more like another game that I played for years which I eventually gave up, State Of Survivor(SOS). However, this game is more complex and there are a lot of different aspect that requires attention.

While playing the game, I noticed many players from my region stopped playing the game, most of them did not even reach level 10. Most players played with the mindset of playing game like SOS. But this is different with additional feature of land grab, planting flag poles.

What I saw in most alliances (that is what they called in the game) having members cluster in big group, while a large mass of land is taken up, unguarded. while there are re-location tools, it is very expensive and not worth using.Therefore members(or allies was the6y were called) have difficulties re-locating to support land from threat.

Further more, many of them just went on doing their own stuff while not contributing to the alliances, making progress difficult.

The complexity in managing the citadel itself is not helping neither, I myself spent much time going round the screen checking different aspects before I can focus on developing my citadel.

The result I saw was around 80% of the players gave up on the game. Even I am contemplating leaving the game as the territory is dying.

My understanding is that this game started by Microsoft, my feel is that it will not make it since within a week's of its launch and I am already contemplating giving up.

Anyway, that waws my rant for this game, let's go back to the real game.

I mentioned last week that I will include an entry on Dow Jones this week, and as promised, here it is.

My last update on Dow Jones It is tumbling down, but it is not yet for Dow Jones, I was adament at the time that Dow Jones was not ready to go down. Since then it climbed higher. So This time is it ready to come down?

Fig 1.DJIA weekly chart

I mentioned in my last week's entry that it was too early to tell since it was only a long bar down. Well, it is not that easy this week neither. A doji is created, indicating uncertainty. So what the chart tell me other than this uncertainty?

First and foremost, MACD crossed downward and not surpassing previous high, this is an indication of divergence, even though it is a weak on.

I believe it will be a correction instead of a reversal. Further indication needed for confirmation.

What else can I see?

The descent of Dow Jone is supported by its 8-week moving average and the 61.8% resistance turned support of its most recent projection, but it closed below the moving average. There is a chance that it may remain congest in the coming week, but the general direction will be trending downward. 

The support I see may be between 39,134 (55-week moving average) to 40,206 (61.8% resistance turned support of its major projection.

The point is that there is a chance at this point that Dow Jones will bounce upward in the coming week, then the resistance I see will be 44,932.

The coming week is when the major event of US election is, it does not matter who wins the election, should the market not rally with good news in either way?

The important thing is that market is all about anticipation. People anticipating the revelation of this good news, and will start selling off once the event is over.

Will it climb with the result? Possible, with maximum period of round 2 week before it starts to head down. After all, Dow Jones really need a correction.

Speaking of the situation of US, I have a thought here based on the market concept of accumulation and distribution.

Is US presently at accumulation or distribution?

I believe that it is presently in process of distribution, why?

Notice the works of BLM? Reparation? LGBTQ*? The demand for privileges is an indication of distribution because everyone is yell," I deserve more!" This will lead to break up of a country.

What is accumulation then? It is when everyone chip in effort for a cause, it results in building up a nation.

In my opinion, US is badly in need to self-reflection, what the Democrats has introduced is very damaging to the country and the process needs to be reversed.

Unfortunately, many voters focus on the wrong thing, believing in the redirection from Democrats. Let's cross fingers that Trump can win back the country.

It is tumbling down, but it is not yet for Dow Jones

I remember it was a day of tumble on Dow Jones, leading to a group of anti-Biden-Harris using it to determine that US market is collapsing and that it is due to Harris' proposal. 

That was a month ago that happened to be Singapore's national day. I wanted to complete the Singapore's read first before continuing with proceeding to checking on the US market. After all, it was only a single week of downturn and insufficient for me to determine a reversal.

unfortunately, what followed led to further delay in my entries.

First off, my wife's family gathering used up one of my week. Then a gout attack on the second weekend caused me to take some pain killers, but the wrong prescription from the pharmacy caused me to take anti-depressant instead.

At least I know now that it did not make my less depressed, but instead I was attacked by continuous drowsiness and slept throughout the weekend with no improvement on my swelling and pain.

Then I had a week's off going back to KL, focusing on my mum's needs.

Finally, this week, I get to sit down and work on this entry.

I have been following the US political arena and if you are observant enough, you will notice that US is on deterioration as a country. It is very deep in debt while the politicians lack the will power to bite the bullet and move towards austerity. 

They attempt to distract the people into focusing on personal gain, ignoring the more pressing issue what the country is heading into the abyss of down fall. 

Having said that, I believe it is not yet time for US to collapse. There is a Chinese saying that 'even a rotting ship contain 3 portion of iron nails'. There are sufficient talents and resources in US for it to stay afloat, if they play their cards right.

Fig 1. DJIA weekly chart

Since the tumble a month ago, Dow Jones actually reached a new high after its fall stopped by the 21-wek moving average, only to 'tumble' again this week. Strange that there is no comment from anyone this time. Is it because the event does not match the narrative?

Ok, let's stay objective in looking at Dow Jones chart. 

The Dow just reversed from a major 100% projection, crossing and stayed below its 8-week moving average. The gradient of ascend remained gradual, indicating a weak momentum. The potential of a downward movement is increasing. 

On the other hand, it has not produced any reversal candle stick. Neither has MACD shown any divergence, indicating that there might be some upside. 

I suspect it may still be another correction with the next support at the 55-week moving average of 38,060, which is mildly above the Bollinger envelop of 37,824. If this happens, it crosses a crucial point of 38,390, which become a neckline for double top base on the present set up, this will lead to a new objective of between 35,389 to 36,708.

On the upside, its immediate resistance is between 41,773 to 42,2185.

For the time being, I do not see that Dow Jones is crashing, at least not yet. However, the same can't be said for its currency.

Let's look at JPY first.

Fig 2. JPY weekly chart

My last entry on JPY was The curious case of JPY-Nikkei divergence, I noted JPY strengthening against USD, with downward potential of 143.141.  As of today, it crosses this level reaching a low of 141.6770. It corrected after the support from Bollinger envelop, it continued its decline but more gradual with present low still above the earlier level. 

Based on the present set up, I do not have upward measurement as there is still no reversal nor divergence indication. So, I will assume continuation downward with further strengthening of the currency against USD.

The next support level is between 129.176 to136.906.

If I am to set an up-side resistance, it will be the 55-week moving average of 149.2248.

Guess I should be seeing more downside on Nikkei since it always move in the opposite direction to JPY.

Fig 3. EURUSD weekly chart

My last entry on both EUR and GBP is Divergence between GBP and EUR dated 3rd Sept 2023. That was more that a year ago. I suspected at the time that EUR and GBP might part their ways. They did not, both continued to weaken against USD for a short while before reversing back up.

I see from the latest chart that EUR is correcting after crossing its 61.8% projection resistance now turning support. It remains above this level of 1.10258. I believe that it should further strengthen against USD with next resistance level between 1.12922 to 1.14787.

One point to note here is the previous high of 1.2759, this coincides with the 61.8% retracement level which is also very close to the 100% projection resistance.  I suspect it may be difficult for EUR to break this point. 

Fig 4. GBPUSD weekly chart

GBP actually fair batter than EUR, it crosses its previous high of 1.31425. It presently retracted from its 100% projection point in what seemingly a congestion at this point. It may hit higher after this.

The next resistance for GBP should be 1.33897 to 1.37742.

One point to note is the gradual gradient of the uptrend for these 2 counters. I suspect while both currencies strengthen against USD, they may be negotiating a top formation. But I think it may take some time before reversing downward.

In conclusion, it is not Dow Jones that is going down, but USD certainly shows much weakness at this point of time. The most important asset of USA is its currency that is used in all international trade. But generations of US politicians take it for granted and print USD as a quick fix for all their problem. Its debt is in level of Trillions, an amount unseen in history. If USD breaks, it signifies the collapse of USA.  

Memory of a friend and, Engulf pattern on Dow Jones?

My return to Kuala Lumpur seems to be a monthly event by now. 

On one end, I have to fulfill my role as a son and brother. At the same time, I believe my age is catching up with me. I took a coach home the last round and drive back this time. The coach with seats compatible to that of first-class flight, while I can stop as much as I like when I drive. Yet neither of them is less tiring.

My trip back 6this round is unhappening, just going through the routine of bringing my mum to places and cook for her. 

When I left the house heading to the market one day, I saw a property development in the horizon, the location used to be the low cost residential blocks in the district.

I still remember the first time I went there. I was still six, on my way to school in a school bus. The school bus topped at the residential blocks. It was stench with the smell of rotting rubbish. Till this day, I cannot comprehend how people can tolerate such stench day after day.

After some time, a number of new blocks were added to the place, it was of height of 16 floors, which we used to derive its name.

I remember the school bus added a few passengers for its trip. There was this boy called Ah Keong, one year younger than me, well built, strong voice, chiseled face with short spiky hair.

While he was from a poor family, he was cheerful. At the time, watches were getting popular, many parents bought for their kids. Ah Keong for a while did not have one. One day, he showed us one that he wore one his wrist. he felt proud because he finally possessed one, even though it belonged to his father.

His happiness was short lived because it stopped moving after a short while, joy turned to worrisome because he was not sure what his father would say that night.

I left for Singapore after primary 5, and I have not heard from him until 2 years later.

On one of my returns from Singapore for my school holidays, I chatted with my brothers on updates during my absence. It was then that my brother told me that Ah Keong has passed away. The news came to me suddenly and I was not prepared for it. while I did not react in appearance, I felt as if a ton of bricks just hit me. 

 I asked my brother how he died, he told me that Ah Keong was sick with a high fever, and in a state unconsciousness, he sleepwalked, climbed the balcony of his home and fell to his death.

As I stared at the build site in the Horizon, memory of him resurfaced. He did not have the chance to enjoy the full extent of his life. It also makes me asked myself, " now that I have opportunity to live to close to the full extent of my life now, have I made full use of it?"

The answer is not, there were times when I seemingly wasted my time on very short-term views while lacking vision of my future. Thinking back, I DO regret wasting my time on fruitless pursue, and it is too late to go back. It is also a mistake that I do not intent for repeat, at least for my children. 

As a result of my own demise, I constantly monitor my children's progress, discuss with them about their next step in life, their future. I want to make sure that they are certain where they want to go.

Having said all these, I miss my friend. Probably I will still be able to meet him one day.

Anyway, back to charting. 

The US Fed announced this week that they are concern that inflation is still strong in the country and they intent to increase interest rate to curb the inflation. I believe it was Thursday that they made this announcement, because it led to a 600 points drop  for Dow Jones that day.

My update on Dow Jones was Dow Jones started its descent Dow Jones started its descend dated 14th April 2024. I believe that it was heading down at the time. Unfortunately, it was supported by the 21-week moving average, reversed and headed north after that. 

Will the news this round trigger its descent?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

To start with, while Dow Jones reached a higher high, it results in further divergence, sending warnings of weakness in its climb. 

At the same time, it is stopped by its Bollinger band envelop, which also coincide with multiple resistances resulted from various projection measurements. There are at least 3 resistances in this region.

The issue now is, is Dow Jones reversing? 

On first look, it seems that Dow Jones also produced an engulfed reversal pattern. However, the shorter bar does not seem to be short enough. This creates the possibility of a congestion stage, especially when it stops short of penetrating its 8-week moving average. 

It is tricky to determine i it is to head down or up at this moment, the movement in the coming week will be crucial.

For the time being, I feel there is a higher chance of Dow heading downward, but it may not go far.

It is likely to be supported by its 55-week moving average presently at 36,603. Crossing this level, the next support level will be 34,503 to 35,553.

Should it continue, next level of resistance will be 41,291.

Dow Jones started its descend

It was only recently that I didan entry on Dow Jones titled My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end? dated 23rd March 2024.

While I suspect that Dow Jones may reverse downward, I believe that Dow Jone may stll have a little upside space before its reversal.

Dow did an attempt to climb higher the week and failed. 

Dow Jones experienced a continuous 2 weeks of descend since, with momentum!

This created an engulf candlestick pattern, with confirmation.

Has the Dow Descend started?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

In its more major move, it seems that Dow Jones has reached its 100% projection objective causing its recent reversal. 

Its descend was only stopped by its 21-week moving average. 

At the same time, divergene is seen on MACD, giving me confidence of its downward intention.

I believe it may pause shortly in the coming week or 2 before continuation, f I consider a gentler downward movement. 

If it maintains its momentum and break through the 21-week moving average, we may see the 3 black crows confirming its intended direction. 

The first support level I see is between 36,597 to 37070. Breaking this level will lead to the next support level between 25,297 to 26,223. Coincidentally where its 55-week moving average is at presently.

I believe Dow will have to reach this level for this descend, I believe in the strength of the 55-week moving average than that of the 21week.

My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end?

I have skipped my up-date last week, again. 

I went back to Malaysia for an event, the clear bright festival. It is a Chinese tradition which the livings visit and attend to the grave of the past. It is a way we remember that our existence is the result of the effort of our ancestors. Without them, we will not be here today. We should be grateful for what their work.

Nope, it is not exactly time for clear bright festival, it is not yet due till early April. It is the anniversary of my father's passing and we have decided to conduct the ceremony early. Furthermore, it is not required that we must conduct the ceremony on the very day. Traditionally, there is an allowance of plus and minus 2 weeks to carry through this process.

I still remember that my cousins and I all look forward for this event, why?

It is not about prayer for our ancestors, neither was it for cleaning the graves. That was the role of the adult. Our role was to eat the offerings after each prayer. The amount of food is abundance, including soft buns, duck eggs, apples, oranges, roast pork and pastries. 

It was picnic for us, not only we feast, we also took the opportunity to connect with each other utilizing this rare opportunity when all the cousins gather at the same spot.

Under normal circumstances, an average family will only have the graves of the grandparents and /or deceased parents. My family is more complicated. My grandmother passed away even before my birth. Her grave was very simple with just a tomb stone and a heap of soil topped with grass patch.

My grandfather passed away when I was 4, but he is not buried together with my grandmother, because he remarried. So we have at least 2 graves that we need to attend to.

My second grandmother past away in 1999. As a place was allocated for her when my family picked the grave for my grandfather.

My family is unique, because there is yet another grave that we have to attend to. For years, the younger generation has no idea whose grave was it. It was much later that we get to know that this is the grave of my second grandmother's first husband. He passed away without heir, as a result the off springs of my family took up the task of tending to his grave as well. 

As we took over the role from our parents, it was then that we realized how taxing it is to take care of the graves, including cutting the grass, loosening the soil, burn the incense for our ancestors' grave, as well as other graves nearby to say "hello".

We started our process by 6 in the morning preparing the food, drive our way to the temple of the first cemetery, visit the first grave, drive to the second cemetery and attend to the second and third grave. 

By the time we finish, it is 11 in the morning. By then, the sun is close to midday, and it is very warm and humid, we will be drench in our own sweat. In addition, we lack sufficient drinking water, leading to an absolute dehydration. It is really not an enjoyable experience when we are adult.

Enough of my clear bright festival. 

I have not been on Dow Jones for quite a while. Part of the reason was my prediction made during the new year in my entry Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. I estimated Dow Jones should see resistance between 37,481 and 39,127 on minor move while 40,295 to 47,454 in major move. 

Dow crossed 39,000 3 weeks ago and is close to reaching the 40,000 mark that I estimated last week before retreating this week. It caused a minor stir on youtube.com. By minor I means a little news, mainly about it breaking new height.

What will happen next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones has reached new height, it seems to lack momentum heading upward. Nevertheless, it managed to stay afloat above 8-week moving average. At the same time, there are a few level resistances. Most obviously, its descending Bollinger envelop at 40,746. 

In addition, it is meeting 2 projection resistances. While it stayed above 39,123 but resisted by 39,500. 

There is another projection resistance above these 2, which is its major projection resistance line at 40,354. I suspect it will retreat when reach this level. However, I cannot determine if it will be a reversal or correct at this point. I will assume the higher possibility of correction based on my experience on 61.8% projection line. it may retreat to its 55-week moving average before heading higher.

At this point of time, there is not yet divergence observed from MACD. Even when divergence is observed, there should still be one more leg up before reversal.

Other than this, I am not seeing other indication on the weekly chart. Is there other hint from Dow Jones chart?  

Let's look at the daily chart.

Fig 2. Dow Jones daily chart

It is also noticeable from this chart that there is a reduction in its momentum. However, there is a surge in momentum this week to push it to new height, with exception on Friday, which sees an over 400 points drop.

Is there anything that need to be worried about? 

Let's take a look at its candle sticks. The 3 days consecutive surge created the three white soldiers this crossing the Bollinger envelop. This followed by a retreat back within the Bollinger band.

While it is a little stretched out, I estimate that this is a potential up-side Tasuki gap, indicating possibility of continuation thereafter. 

There chance of uptrend is high even on the daily chart as a result.

I have drawn a projection on the chart postmortem. The reason for this week's reversal is due to its 61.8% projection resistance. With my belief that 61.8% projection normally result in correction.

Regardless correction or continuation after this week, the next resistance zone will be between 40,623 to 41,210.

Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng

We have finally come to the end of 2023. Today is the last day of the year and I thoguht to myself, " what shall I write?"

May be the best thing to analyze are the 3 major indices to me: Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. 

I am elevating the time frame to monthly chart for this purpose.

Fig 1. Dow Jones monthly chart

My last update on Dow Jones is Is Dow Jones reversing as well? dated November 5th 2023. That was about a month ago.

I was skeptical that Dow Jones on reversal at the time, I believe that Dow's major trend was down and that it was in the beginning of a counter wave move to retest its previous high. I expected the major trend was still down.

Well, it did retest its 61.8% projection resistance and also the previous top of 35,679, and not only crossed, it went higher and surpass its previous peak of 36,952, reaching a high of 37,778 this week. Well, may be Dow Jones has decided to end 2023 with a boom.

So what is going to happen next?

On its minor move, Dow Jones seems to have hit the 100% projection resistance, calculated at 37,481, with 127% projection resistance of 39,127 next. It is possible that Dow Jones will open with a correction downward, may be to its 61.8% projection of 35,169 before heading higher.

In its major move, it is yet to reach its resistance zone of 40,295 to 47,454.

These are the technical readings using Fibonacci projection. However, I find the gradient of its climb is gentle. As such I believe that it may have limited upside. 

Fig 2. Nikkei monthly chart

My last update on Nikkei was Nikkei moved! on November 4th 2023. I was positive of Nikkei with an estimate objective of 33,425. Nikkei reached my objective and hit a high of 33,853 before retreating and supported by its 21-week moving average. 

By the end of the year, Nikkei is retesting its previous high, closing at 33,824 by the end of the year.

What is expected of Nikkei in the coming year then?

The chart maintains its support for an uptrend as its moving averages are still in alignment. While the final month demonstrated a potential hanging man, the bar was not hung high above the previous bar. It does not give me the feeling of reversal, instead it seems more like a correction or congestion to me.

For the time being, I see a few resistances for Nikkei. On minor move, it is close to reaching its projection zone of between 35,493 to 38,530. In its major move, it is congesting at its 61.8% projection of 33,249. The next resistance level will be 38,655. 

Fig 3. Hang Seng monthly chart

My last update on Hang Seng was Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023 dated October 1st 2023. In addition, I have an earlier entry titled Hang Seng on continuation...again.... dated August 19th 2023. 

I am in conflict in my view on Hang Seng, it is on a down trend, at the same time, I believe it is in a counter wave move with a tendency of up thrust thereafter. 

If based on its double top formation, Hang Seng has yet to reach its 61.8% Expansion support of 13,509, not to mention its 100% expansion at 8,794. If these levels are coming true, Hang Seng is pretty screwed.

For the moment, I prefer to depend on its projection calculation, the levels are more realistic and relevant. Hang Seng has reached its 127% projection support level before it rebounded. At present, it is close to retesting its low of 14,597 and its 127% projection support of 15,480.

Hang Seng closed at end of the year at 17,047 with a hammer. It seems that Hang Seng hopes to start 2024 with a new beginning. It will be interesting to see what will happening in the coming year. If it decides to move up, we will likely see possibility of 22,077, which is its 55-month moving average resistance.

Is Dow Jones reversing as well?

My last update on Dow Jones was on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023 which I was negative on the trend of the Dow Jones. I suspect Dow was in process of top formation. 

The momentum of the uptrend between July 2022 to July 2023 was gradual and that it demonstrated pattern of a 3-wave formation. In addition, there are various divergence such as MACD as well as failure of Dow Jones superseding the previous top.

However, Dow Jones rebounded strongly this week just like Nikkei. I am positive on Nikkei as the continuation was long anticipated, Am I with the same feeling with Dow?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

Since my last update, Dow reversed from its 61.8% projection, broken through 55-week moving average only to stopped at 144-week moving average. It is presently retesting the 55-week moving average.

In addition, the counter wave between the 2 July also developed a wedge formation and outbreak by week of 17th September.. This is further signs that Dow Jones is on a down trend.

It is however possible for Dow to move momentarily upward to retest 61.8% projection as well as the wedge envelop with resistance now at 35,317. 

However, the general trend I believe is still downward with support at betwen 27,254 to 30,492.

Another level to observe is 28,586, which is the previous low of Dow Jones on 2nd October 2022. should this level be violated, the formation of a double top will be completed. it is only worth noting as a possibility as the pattern is yet to complete.

It is possible that Dow Jones will retreat after  

Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023

It is 3 weeks since my last entry. For some reason, I was very reluctant to type anything. Not that I was lazy, the charts looked to me were so uninteresting, they all seem to at a crossroad and gave me a sense of uncertainty. I ended up moving away from charting for 2 weeks. 

I guess the timing was right, since my family was preparing a trip to Bangkok, Thailand, and we flew there last weekend. 

I remember my first trip to Bangkok was 1998, I went there for a job interview, I was surprised and impressed at how advance Bangkok was at the time. They have a flourishing economy and a strong industry. The people were resilient with ability to bite through hardship in life.

I was more surprised when Thailand viewed Singapore as their competitor. They were at one point competing against Singapore to be the hub for regional flight, it was only their language limitation that they lost.

They are also a constant threat to the Singapore seaport. There were a few occasions with consideration of building a canal joining the India ocean with Pacific Ocean, in effect cutting Singapore lifeline. Eventually, it was Thailand who rejected the proposal, considering the effect it will have on Singapore and that Thailand will be physically divided due to the canal, so Singapore rally owe Thailand big time on this.  

Bangkok did not disappoint me this round neither. It has fully recovered from the Covid-19 lockdown: The airport was buzzing with incoming flights and tourist; It has a huge collection of crowded mega malls and a very diverse range of local merchandise for different customer demand. 

Probably the only weakness for Thailand is literacy and its language barrier. I recalled the time I went for customer visits. The engineers I have met were very strong technically but could only communicate in Thai and could not handle English. If they improve on this aspect, I won't be surprised when they surpass Singapore.

Enough of the trip, let's go back to charting.

Since my entry on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023, time seems to fly very quickly and more than a month has past, it would seem appropriate for another entry on these 3 indices, after all, it has been a while.

Let's start with Nikkei  225.

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

Since the last up-date, Nikkei completed a 3-wave pattern hitting the support zone. Although rebounded, it did not seem to go on a continuation and failed to break the previous high. 

It is now at the 61.8% projection support of 31,916 and possibly hit the 100% projection support of 30,868. I will consider another level here, the 55-week moving average of 30,125,

However, I believe this is a correction as it is reversed from a major 61.8% projection and should continue upward after that, with a possible target of 39,232. 

Fig 2. Dow Jones weekly chart

I did not start my analysis with Dow Jones this round, because on top of the Fibonacci measurements, I sense something interesting about Dow Jones. It may not be anything be I still believe it is worth noting on.

While Dow Jones rebounded upward after its correction, the uptrend some what seems lacking in momentum. I feel that Dow Jones is in progress of a top formation. A top formation in general requires a round 3 years to complete. It may be possible a down-turn confirmation by next year should this be true.

For the time being, Dow Jones just reached the 55-week moving average. We may see a "reversal on the coming week due to this support. However, the MACD is showing a divergence, we should be seeing a tendency of continuation downward.

In this direction, we should see a support zone between 27,216 to 30,446. Should Dow break the lower limit of the support, we should see a confirmation of top formation.

Should it be on a continuation upward, the next level of support will be at 38,105.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng is very interesting, while I was negative on Hang Seng. It's down trend seems more like a counter wave, especially when the angle of down trend is gentle. It is possible that it will eventually result in a continuation upward.

For the time being, there are still more indication of down trend with support between 15,758 to 17,514. 

On a sideline, it is note that the Hong Kong government has finally started doing something. They announced the night market project.

It met with negative comments from many who are critical of the Hong Kong government. After all, many consider Hong Kong government as a puppet of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and have single handedly destroyed the city.

However, unlike the previous chief secretary who was an idiotic blind follower of the CCP. This new administration is making an attempt to improve the situation that Hong Kong is in.

The only problem here is: After under the "influence" of CCP for so long, the administration lacks the competence to drive the city. Furthermore, the tightening grip on its people and the purge on opposition leads to an outflow of its talents. 

Nevertheless, its attempt to improve on Hong Kong economy is a positive move.  

Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023

I have skipped last week's update. No, I was not lazy, I was depressed after a week's of losing trades. 

My trading was fine even after my return from Malaysia. Then I suddenly have a sense of anxiety while driving home after my morning routines (send my wife to work, my children to school), things been too great, and it is possible that disaster was around the corner. 

For a week since then, something just went wrong with my trades. The worse was that the moment I made a loss on my trade I somehow was compelled to look into 'the next opportunity' to re-enter the market, leading to more bad trades. 

It reached an extent that I have to stop trading and move away from my desk. I have to sit back and conduct a self -reflection of what went wrong. I remembered a time many years ago when I first decided to take up trading. 

My mum was concerned about my financial status, I happened to complete a good trade then (around USD1,000 profit in an hours of work) to gain her confidence, she praised that she misjudged me and that I was indeed capable.

It was after that incident that suddenly my trades just started failing, and it went on for months and I lost most of my capital. I ended up switching to demo trade to figure out the issue with my trades. It still took another year or so to notice that I was compelled to trade, I must be in the market to re-assure people to live up to my reputation.

Did something happen before my relapse this round. I was in Malaysia the week before. My brother voiced his concern if I am really doing fine with my trading. I was doing fine at the time, I smiled and re-assure him I was doing fine.

I suspect that this was actually the catalyst, and the trigger point was the first losing trade of the week. It seems like I have a need to live up to other people's expectations. This is something that I need to overcome.

Anyway, enough of that. This week round, I am going to do an up-date on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. 

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

I can't believe that my last up-date on Dow Jones was in Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng up-date 23rd April 2023 in april 2023. while I was not that positive on Dow then, I estimated a resistance between 35,308 to 37,774.  

Dow Jones reached new high last week at 35,687 before retreating back to a low of 35,029 this week, closing at 35,076.

35,308 happen to be the 61.8% more major projection resistance level.

Is it a reversal? 

I suspect not, the bars are overlapping after a long bar up, indicating a possibility of congestion. There are likely more upside.

There are also signs of weaknesses. First off, the gradient of its uptrend is gentle at around 30o, similar to the previous downtrend, I suspect it is a counter wave of counter wave (wave B). 

Why still more up-side?

While reaching new high, its MACD has still yet to break the previous peak, potentially forming a divergence. The bar of the coming week will be quite significant, it will give indication of the trend for Dow Jones.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last up-date on Nikkei was more recent in Nikkei & JPY divergence dated 25th June 2023. 

I was more positive of Nikkei, at the same time ponder its divergence with JPY.

Nikkei retreated from its 61.8% projection resistance earlier. It retested this resistance this week and made further retreat after that.

While congesting, it seems to me that Nikkei is in process of completing a 3-wave pattern, with objective between 30,652 to 31,271.

If broken, then the next level will be 29,363, its 55-week moving average.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My last up-date for Hang Seng was in Hang Seng continuation on 28th May 2023. To be honest, Hang Seng is the counter I am trading most. It has very strong fluctuations and it is possible to make huge losses. 

At the same time, it is also a very good counter for making fast money. I use 3-minute chart and only for around 30 minutes for Hang Seng.

Primarily, I trades Hang Seng because I do not want to lose my sleep trading Dow Jones which means I have to trade at night. I do not want such excitement before I sleep.

Hang Seng is active and with magnitude as compared to Nikkei. 

All the time I was bearish for Hang Seng, noting the formation of reversal pattern. 

I claimed in my last entry that it was on continuation downward. I am puzzled by its behavior lately. It does not seem to indicate that it is on continuation, but within a congestion channel, and lately it is testing the upper envelop, before retreating, mainly due to its 55-week moving average, which is also very close to its short term 100% projection resistance range. 

Is it going up or down? I am uncertain, Hang Seng to me is at a crossroad, especially when it is congesting. I am still leaning more towards the downside, but with possible short up-side before heading downward. 

Is it a pride issue or a market issue in general?

 I meant to include this entry last week, but I did not, because I procrastinated. There is a sense of tiredness in me to stop me from typing out what's in my mind. 

I have up-dated Hang Seng and Nikkei independently while held off the up-date on Dow as Dow was still in its congestion mode.

Throughout the week, I have decided to move away from trading. I needed a long break. So my family and I went to Kuala Lumpur to visit my mum and finalize my father's funeral process.

Throughout the week, I pondered about what I wanted to do for the blog. I have decided to proceed with the update on the few hot counters featured in boycott.

Fig 1. Tatget Corp weekly chart

Target was another highlighted company for the "conservative boycott" target after Anheuser-Busch. It was flagged out for "grooming children" due to its pride promotion which seemingly targeting children inclusively. 

It was also found that the company was heavily in organization with initiation to encourage and train schools to hide children transition from parents, not only fund but one of the VPs is the treasurer of the organization.

Little was said about its sales as it was not registered on weekly basis. However, the findings certainly shake the market as the counter plunged from its congestion band leading to a continuation downward.

An interesting point to note is the steep descend prior to its congestion. This seems to indicate that Target itself is not doing well.

I look at the chart set up and at present it does not look good for the counter as the directions in general are downward and may lead to Target head of sub USD100 in the long run, with support at around USD80.  

Meanwhile, Target has reached its short term 100% projection. My feel here is that it will be in continuation as it continues to penetrate its lower Bollinger envelop.

A side note here: while there are many liberals in the country, US of A maintain as a predominantly Christan conservative majority. Knowing a company that seriously violate the core value of this group, people may really not want to support the business. I think that it is really not a boycott but people are in general disgusted with their action and not want anything to do with them.

Fig 2. Anheuser-Busch weekly chart    

In my last update on this counter The distructive power of Narcissism I noted the possibility of an initiation of reversal instead of continuation.  

The sales of Anheuser-Busch was heavily affected by the Bud Light saga leading to a 60% drop on Memorial day. Its product has lost the prominent shelves, and it was toppled from the top position.

I ended up the need to redo the technical set up as a result.

while the long run set up is still up at this moment, the short term objectives remain downward, with steeper gradient. 

The interesting part is that the bar turned green this week but with a short body. This is likely due to the moving average crossing, a phenomenon that I observed a few times. 

I anticipate a congestion or a mild retracement towards the moving averages before its continuation downward with objective between USD30-35. The important support level however, is the previous low of USD44.50.

Similar to Target, I do not see this as a boycott but an genuine rejection of the brand by its consumers, which is a more serious issue. While boycott may be a temporary issue, brand rejection is more permanent and difficult to reverse back.

With these 2 counters seriously affected by the direction that they have taken, it makes me ponder if it is possible that US market in about to reverse downward in general. afterall, Dow Jones has been seen congesting downward the past months.

Fig 3. Molson Coor Beverage weekly chart

Miller Lite is the direct competitor of Bud light and its is under the ownership of Molson Coor.

During the Bud Light saga, Miller lite was also caught with an advertisement which highlight degradation of woman by beer companies. The stock seemed momentarily affected by market concern if it would goes the same way as Bud Light and Anheuser-Busch. 

However, it seems not really the case as sales was only mildly affected. The counter also saw a strong support from its 8-week moving average, propelling it to new height and presently testing the previous high of 66.67.

The few measurements I have are pointing upward with objective of around USD75.

Other than Molson Coor, I am also seeing similar uptrend with Walmart whose departmental store are also promoting pride month but not as prominent as target. 

As such what is the direction of US market in general? 

Fig 4. Dow Jones weekly chart

I hesitated with talking about Dow the last few weeks because it was in congestion, and I was waiting for its break out. It did last week and managed to remain above the moving averages. 

It is still not out of the wood yet. I has not broken through its previous high of 34,941 and its bollinger envelop remain relatively flat. 

I sense it may meet resistance when reaching the Bollinger envelop.

However, with higher lows consistently, the upward potential high for the time being.

The resistance I see will be the Bollinger envelop of 34,651. Projection resistance of between 34,382 to 35,545 while another set of projection resistance at between 35,254 to 37,731.

Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng up-date 23rd April 2023

This is the second week of school for both my children, both decided to choose a polytechnic located in the west while we stay in the east.

For them, it is an hour and a half of travel one way. this ends with me fetching them to school to cut down travel time. However, I do not send them to school every morning, only Monday to Wednesday as well as Friday, when I also send my wife to work.

However, this means that I regularly have breakfast with my kids at their school, which is cheaper than usual. So there goes my intermittent fasting.

What's more hectic will be the coming week when I will be traveling to Kuala Lumpur to finalize my father's departure. The coming Friday will be the 49th day since his departure and the event will be concluded. He will be guided back home and raised to the ancestral altar.

As for the market, at least the behavior of Anheiser-Busch was quite to my expectation. It did not drop further due to the support levels it is resting on. It however, continues to hover. I suspect it is due to the management team still uncertain on how they want to handle the situation, and traders continue to on hold their action pending the company's decision.

To be frank, if I am the management team, the only one group of people whom I will pander to is my customer base, losing it will be disaster, competitors will take this opportunity to penetrate through the core base of the company, as can be seen from Ultra Right, Coor and Yueling.

Enough of chit chat. How are the markets doing? My last update on the 3 indices that I trade on was Let's do some wave count... on 2nd April 2023. Based on wave count at the time, the general directions were up, although I was skeptical with hang Seng and cautious on Nikkei.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones was on the up-trend until its pause this week, its momentum was not really strong. Furthermore, it seems to be stopping at the trendline based on the last 2 peak. On a positive note, it broke through a longer trendline, retested the resistance turned support of this line and bounced further up. 

One issue I am concern about here is that while Dow Jones is on an upward movement, it did not manage to convince the Bollinger envelop, which went flat. Close monitoring of this counter needed especially when it retest the trendline as well as the Bollinger band envelop.

Using Fibonacci projection, it is possible to determine 2 levels of resistances between 35,308 to 37,774.  

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

Yes, all arrows pointing up for Nikkei base on Fibonacci measurement at least. 

However, it is also worth noting that Nikkei is within a congestion zone, and its present trend is of C wave, in my opinion. furthermore, this is likely to be in a major B wave after a major A formed between December 2021 to June 2022.

If this is true, The peak of the major B wave should not be higher than its peak in May 2021. I am seeing resistance between 29,594 to 30,346. However, it is crucial that it overcome its present position, which coincidentally are where both 61.8% projections are located.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng is facing resistance, this come from the 55-week moving average that I find highly influential. It has difficulties penetrating this resistance level. The counter has been testing and retesting the last few weeks and the bars in the last 2 weeks even turned red. I suspect that it is going to head downward, but the signal is not yet definite.

A more definite read so far is an uptrend (in blue). Unless Hang Seng come down breaking with a new low, I will have to assume the trend is up. If this trend become certain, it will face resistance at 23,847.

If it breaks with a new low, the support level is between 17,061 to 18,512.