Movement for Creative Technology

Creative seems to be one of the stock that many talk about. One of the reason could be that it is the first company to be listed on NASDAQ and that its minimum transaction is base on 50 units. In the latest closing, it is priced at SGD9.10.

One thing that I am interested in is exactly how much does Creative really cost in Singapore context. If I convert Creative into per 1,000 units transaction. The actual cost per share is in fact SGD0.455, a penny stock.

I have always been facinated with Creative share. To start with my first company Aztech was Creative's competitor. then Creative saved me during my darkest hour (refer to my Blog on" My romance with Technical Analysis" ). It is also one stock that is not easy to predict, since it is traded in both USA and Singapore. The trading from each sides are affected by the other.

Non the less, Creative have come down quite a fair bit from its top of SGD69.50. It is enough to make people wonder about its performance. Still base on the technical set up, I believe its move can be predicted.


Above is the weekly chart of Creative. If we consider Elliot wave on major moves, then it came down with a 5 wave movement and then enter a consolidation of B wave between end 2001 to early 2005 and then continued its descend. In fact its recent move has broken through the first support level (SGD9.90) with next level of support @7.60. Now if I actuallly use Elliot wave calculation with Fibonacci numbers, it should be going to -SGD11.085 for C completion. However, this number seems rediculous to me unless it is going bankrupt.

If Elliot is giving us a wierd value, we go back to basic pattern recognition. Between 2002 to 2005, I would consider a formation of rectangle. Base on the measurement, it is trending towards -SGD7.90, again a negative value. ( *sigh*how I wish that the B wave can end up higher.)

Could I have made any error while reading Creative? It is possible. Firstly the rectangle has been mroe than 3 years old. a bottom would normally take so long to form. Further more it is possible that Creative be supported in the area of 7.60, reversal upward will form a tripple bottom, granting it a move back to SGD52. So the make or break of Creative is crucial in its development between 7.60 to 9.90. However, this is still an assumption and can only be true if it breaks above 14.40.

Now stocks cannot go below 0, so disregard the earlier calculation and focus on more recent moves from 2005. If we have seen an A and B wave completion, then this should be the C. Calculation of C indicates a target of SGD4.56! Now if Creative breaks below 7.60, then this scenario will be quite true.

With 2 scenerio set in, next is to see if there is a higher possibility of up or down. Referring to the same shart again, the RSI is at the bottom and diverging up. When RSI touched this level in the past, the stock rebound. Further more, the Stochastic has also bottomed with prolong stay. It is therefore highly likely that Creative will rebound higher.

Both scenaio provides possibilities on where Creative is heading. There are still uncertainties. However, no technique in the world would provide 100% guaranttee, however, Technical analysis will allow higher probability of winning. As my master has said, " it is like looking at a flower blooming, the thrilling part is by letting it reveal itself to you slowly."