DJIA, long time no see....

While my blood pressure is under manageable level right now, it nevertheless fluctuates. I am safe in the morning but went past safety level by evening. I guess it must be the work pressure.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

It has been a looooong while since I last looked at DJIA. My last update on this index was somewhere between Dec 2010 and Jan 2011. Both of them reported DJIA heading south. However, it still maintained its position for another 2 months before the reds are in.

Tonight, I am still saying the same thing, DJIA is heading south, and both Stochastic and RSI support this. They are both 1/2 way down. If my count is right, the 5 waves of c is completed and now it should be the beginning of the C wave. Its going to be ugly.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

Okay, this is one scenario. The positive scenario is that on daily basis, it is possible that DJIA is not that ugly. We could be at the 4th of the 3rd of C wave, which means there is a possibility of a 5th of c wave.

What I see is 2 layer of support, one a support line of 11,753 and the other the 21 days moving average at 11,696. It is highly possible that Dow Jones might rebounce upward from here, especially the Stochastic and RSI are at the bottom right now.

Okay, after all these said, it seems like I have placed bet on both side. This is not right, so which side should I bet on? My gut feel tells me that DJIA is just doing a correction and not yet a reversal. There will still be a 4th and a fifth wave coming.