Brazil Bovespa Index

A few years ago, there emerged the prophesy of the BRIC, it symbolised the 4 major emerging markets namely Brazil, Russia, India and China. Legend has it that these 4 countries are of highest potential for future growth, with strong resources and/or large population. At one point, the 4 countries even met and discussed about not using USD as the currency for business transaction. This would in effect removed USD as the common currency for forex.

One thing that I wonder is, why these 4 countries? First of all, they are all highly corrupted to the core. Secondly, within the skin deep rich exterior, there is huge disparity in wealth distribution. The poor are still getting nowhere and the few riches getting even richer. The point is, how long can these countries last? To me it is only time when anarchy happens.

Today, I am looking at Brazil's Bevespa Index.  On the first look, it seems to be in progress of a top formation, in fact, it is more like a double top. On second look, there is an addition descending triangle to support the down trust. Indeed, the index came down.

There is only one problem, the index has recently broken the neckline and went back up, not only that, it also went above the moving average. The original objectively of 36,000 may not valid any more.

So what is happening? If we go back to wave counting, after the descent of 2008-2009 which should symbolise A wave, I see a wierd phenomenon of wave A again in 2009, this time it went up-ward. It follows by a long period of B wave between 2011-2013. So it should be doing an up-ward C right now.

Another way of looking at this is that 2008-2009 is the A wave, with 2009 up-wave a B and C formed from 2009 till 2013. Bovespa have completed 4th wave and on its way to 5th right now. The one thing that support this is the fact that there is a triangle in this congestion.