Dow Jones is about to change direction

At least this is the way I read it. The index is reaching the upper envelop of the the reverse triangle formation. Further more, the indicators are very toppish and there would be pressure for it to descend.

The thing that I cannot figure out properly is the wave count. As the ascenssion of Dow Jones from 1,000 till 1998 makes it unclear for the wave count. I do not know if the upward wave has been completed and counter wave started. Could the wave from 1999 till 2002 be a 4th? The looks is impossible as what follows (2002 - 2007) is another counter wave (3-wave pattern).

What I am doing now is to only count the wave starting from 2009. My feeling that this is still a counter wave. A 5-wave pattern has been completed by mid 2011, then the wave went hay wired. I consider the the formation of C wave, it is possile to be a 3 wave pattern with the wave probably already completed.