Crude oil revisit

 Things are not going smoothly this week. 

It started with this flu virus ( tested not covid-19 ) going around my family and it is my  turn getting it this week, began with itchy throat, cough and now runny nose. 

Second, I was meant to use my demo trade to test out a system, but order loaded onto my live trade instead, ending with quite a bit of losses. Good thing that I have always practice stop loss and minimized the losses.

For a chang this week, I have decided to revisit crude oil as it recently cost an increase in my cost of living. The last time I did an entry crude oil decided to play a trick on me, going the other way. well, if it is read wrongly, it is my own fault.

Fig. 1 Crude oil weekly chart

To start with, I am using the chart available on https://finance.yahoo.com since the platform I uses does not have chart stretching more than 3 months (due to its commodity nature). As such there are some tools not available to me. Nevertheless, the tools on yahoo.com would be sufficient for the time being for me to conduct a rough read of its development. So what is happening?

Well, the war ( or military exercise as described by Russia ) has been going on for more than 2 months now and Russia is seriously going no where.

While crude oil is again climbing up after its retreat, it's momentum has declined. The weekly fluctuation has indeed reduced evidence from the bar spread, giving me a feeling Do these mean a tendency of reversal?

While I am seeing signs of weakness in crude oil, the 3 moving averages are still supporting an uptrend. What I can assume is the possibility of correction. The looks of the decline provides a possibility of crude oil in a zig zag B wave after an A wave decline. As such, we should see a C wave downwards. So where can the support level of C wave be?

My bet at this point is the 55-week moving average. Furthermore, it is possible to use Fibonacci projection  to provide a more accurate measurement, which unfortunately not available on this platform. Using the present position of 55-week moving average however, we can estimate the value to be USD85.00.

However, I have not witnessed a reversal bar on crude oil yet, so I should not be assuming a reversal yet, even though it is already at the previous high. patience, patience.