Reversing or dead cat bounce?

Even as a chartist, I have to admit that the Ukraine-Russia war was the main influence to the strong surge in the indices that I am monitoring. While having such strong rebounce, I can't help but to wonder if it is enough to determine a change in the trend of these indices.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

To be frank, Dow Jones is the index least affected by this war event. In fact it has shown a reversal with a hammer and closed above the 55-week moving average by the end of the week. Even when it continued to descend in the 2 weeks following the war, it never-the-less did not violate the low of the hammer,  supported by the 89-week moving average, coinciding with the 23.6% retracement.  

What's interesting is that the surge this week broke through all the moving averages resisting it.

There is a high tendency that Dow will continue to ascend further. My feel is that Dow might congest at the 21-week moving average for the next one or few weeks before continuing on its way.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

While the surge is strong in Nikkei, it did not manage to penetrate through all the moving averages, especially the 55-week moving average that is also seems to be turning downward.

Further to that, I can also see a double top formation on Nikkei, which the neckline has been crossed. This week's surge is testing this neck line. So far it is staying above the neck line, coincidentally also the 89-week moving average. However, I normally pplace 55-week moving average a more important  factor for consideration.

The one thing that is unsettling to me is that the gradient of its descend is gradual and the body of the bars tends to overlap with the body of previous one. This likely means that the present wave is a counter wave and we might see further ascend in the furture. 

However, if  the double top formation valid, then its target will be 22,892.

Next week will be interesting for Nikkei. will Nikkei break through 55-week moving average presently resisting at 27,673?

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Of the  3 indices, the surge in Hang Seng is the strongest. In my earlier entry I estimated a support level at 18,500 points, Hang Seng managed to hit this point by Tuesday before it rebounce upward. 

However, I am still not very optimistic about Hang Seng, I believe that Hang Seng has not finnished its descend yet.  There are a few reasons for my prediction. 

To start with,, there is a HUGE double top stretching through 5 to 6 years starting from 2016,, and it has just broken its neckline. If this is true, the target of Hang Seng is 8,447! Will this level be seen on Hang Seng one day in the near future? I think both Hong Kongers and the China officials will want Carrie Lam's blood when this happen.

Another factor has to do with the moving averages, the gradient of their descends is increasing, meaning that they are gaining momentum. While we are seeing a strong reversal this week and it is possible that Hang Seng continue to rise higher the coming few weeks, the resistance result fromthe moving averages will make it hard for Hang Seng to cut through. Hong Kong will really have to be VERY DETERMINE to achieve this. My feel is that it is going to be resisted by the 55-week moving average which is now at 25,029.