Crude oil Up-date 25th June 2022

 I promised myself to keep up-dating this blog weekly. That promised was made right before I went AWOL for 2 weeks. Even with reason, it is not justified to do so, it involves discipline which is important to trading.

I went back to Malaysia with my family to visit my parents, I was involved in cooking and running erants the whole week. My parents are in their mid 80s, they stay with my youngest brother who unfortunately was in a divorce proceeding with his wife at the moment. I am kind of worried how he is coping, good thing is that he picked up drumming. My wife tested his drum set and she seems to like doing it as well, she said it is therapeutic. 

I estimated in my last up-date that there is a strong tendency for crude oil to fall and it is a matter of waiting for the signal.

While checking my social media (Facebook.com) this week, I came across a chart on crude oil, it caught my attention. 

 

Fig1. Crude Oil Weekly Chart

The chart I use comes from Finance.yahoo.com, which I consider relatively good platform for chart read, even though it does not include some tools of my preference.

Signal came the week after my up-date and confirmation with a long bar down. It is stopped by the 21-weekmoving average this week. While seemingly a hammer, the body remains red and resisted by the 8-week moving average.

So where do I think crude oil is going?

Based on my projection calculation (Yes, I have to dig out an older excel sheet to perform the calculation), crude oil is close to reaching 61.8% projection (USD100.46) support this week, explaining the reason for its long tail. 61.8% projection line is however not a strong resistance support, and many times result in a correction instead of  a reversal, this is especially so when it is a bar with long body prior to this, I should expect the next support level to be USD86.11.

If downslide continuation is true, then USD92.00 is crucial to crude oil, it is the neckline of a double top formation. Crossing this line will lead to further objective of USD55.36 for crude oil.

That would be good news for us, isn't it?