Rohingyas are not Vietnamese

This week the Malaysian Government is in trouble on many things, and th highlight for the week is the Rohingya "refugees".

In 2016, Myanmar has a military crackdown on the Rohingyas who resided in their country, leading to their dispersion into many places including Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Why Malaysia?

There are politicians here with vested interest trying to increase the support of Muslim community by showing their "love and care" for fellow Muslims, fought for acceptance of these refugees.

The result is 200,000 refugees who are stateless entering Malaysia while no further action, they are no allowed to work, children barred from state owned education and care, and worst, no refugee camps, leading to them going for low end rentals in Malaysia.

By 2026, the problem of the Rohingya started to emerge. While with refugee status, they diffuse into the society lie the Gypsies of Europe. Many settled illegal encampments what they built themselves, most impressive one was an unapproved 4 stories architecture for multiple families.

Those who settled into low-cost rental were seen slaughtering up to 20 cattle in the back street to "celebrate" Hari Raya Haji, with blood and wastes dumped into the drainage system, causing contamination.

Mothers and children are seen going from car to car at traffic junctions begging for money, which again is a hazardous act endangering them and the road user.

Yet for some reason, the authority turned a blind eye on them. Imagine that these are the action of the Chinese or Indians, I can assure you that politicians will yell at the top of their voice to condemn such action, the authorities with conduct further crack down at lightning speed.

Maybe it is simply that the Rohingyas are Muslim? Afterall, it is not the first time that Malaysia law is very gentle when come to Malay and Muslims, fearing that it will hurt their feelings. While the rest are outsiders no matter how hard they justify being Malaysians.

The irony is that among the fiasco, the authority claim that they are aware of the 4 stories building that is illegal, and that it was the landowner who allowed the Rohingya to build. Further to that, they have cut the electricity while allowing the water supply to continue. The building is now unoccupied.

The authority made further claim that the settlement there is to be torn down, waiting for the 600,000 funds to be approved.

I really can't believe what I have heard. The landowner agreed the illegal settlement built-up, should the landowner be the responsible party to dismantle? further to that, should the landowner not be fined for this illegal built-up? Why is it that it is the people who has to foot the bill for this activity?

There are many calls for the repatriation of the Rohingyas, not only Malaysia, but Indonesia as well. Aceh for instance launched protest to get them deported the problem is: where to?

Technically, the Rohingyas are stateless people, unlike Vietnamese in the 70s who could be repatriated back to Vietnam. Myanmar has not recognized Rohingyas are their citizens, neither will Bangladesh even though these people originate from there. 

If you are to deport someone, you have to send them back to the country of their origin. Rohingyas has no country of origin!

Fun fact, why both Bangladesh and Myanmar reject Rohingyas? Because the Rohingyas want to set up their own country, they are not pleading to the country they reside in, they demanded a piece of their own land cutting from the host country, they are even willing to take up violence to achieve this, evidence from what happened in Myanmar.

I am not surprised that when the Rohingya turn a sizeable group, they will demand a piece of their own land from the Malaysia government. I wonder the Malaysia government then willing to do so for "brotherhood"?

Why is my topic on Malaysia today? Primarily, I wanted an entry on SGDMYR, and Malaysia political development touches on the Rohingyas this week.

I wanted to have this SGDMYR entry last week as it was climbing up, but I procrastinated. 

Fig1. SGDMYR weekly chart

In my last entry on SGDMYR in Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next? dated 14th Feb 2026, I was of impression of a correction of SGDMYR with resistance between 3.1193 to 3.2337 before continuation downward. 

SGDMYR is reversing up presently, Reached a high of 3.1640 only to close at 3.1586 on Friday. It is in midst of climbing further upward. At the same time, new development since my last read allowing more indication of its direction.  

SGDMYR has crossed its 61.8% projection of 3.1485 and is heading for its 55-week moving average at 3.1770. This is very close to its 100% projection of 3.1849. These are the resistance for this correction.

Considering is correction with formation of double-bottom, its objective will be at between 3.2335 to 3.2772. These 2 levels are very close to the previous prediction. 

Support wise is unchanged since I am using the higher end projection with its 100% projection support at 2.9470.

Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next?

My last update on SGDMYR was actually quite recent titled Malaysia is getting expensive dated 30th Nov 2025. I estimated its support zone to be between 3.0895 to 3.1013. 

I went to Johore 2 weeks ago for some bank work and Lunar New Year purchases. To my surprise, SGDMYR reached the top side of the support zone. I was tempted to perform some forex, but held off as I believe that the component has not reached its bottom.

The people of Malaysia were with much joy, and many were voicing, "Finally, Singaporeans will now have to come to work in Malaysia." 

The thing here is that there are already Singaporeans working in Malaysia, most notably Johore Bahru. There are Singapore entities opening manufacturing and sales offices there and they have to place some Singaporeans to manage their subsidiaries. 

The one thing that these Malaysians have ignored is: while SGDMYR dropped from a top of 3.72 to a low of 3.0795. The salary difference between Malaysia and Singapore is still 1 to 3. Will the entities in Malaysia willing to pay MYR9,000 for a Malaysian engineer in Malaysia? Singapore on the other hand can afford SGD3,000 for such Malaysian engineer, as long as he is competent and able to deliver.

SGDMYR will have to be at par for this Malaysia dream to realize, and at this point of time, the way the leaders of the country continue to emphasize on Ketuanan Melayu, we will continue to see an outflow of talents, no matter how much the government call for its talents to return. 

While they continue to demand others to be sensitive to the feeling of Malays, have they ever respected others, especially when they are the ones at disadvantage without the support of other races?

Understand this, respect has to be earned.

Since then, it continued on its decline for 2 weeks, reaching a low of 3.0795. This also coincide with its 127% minor projection level. Now that it is the "bottoming", shall I make some conversion?

Fig 1. SGDMYR weekly chart

First off, while sliding down, the bars are overlapping. it is meeting support energy. It shows potential sign of a reversal. 

However, there is yet indication from neither MACD nor the moving average set up. furthermore, I will have to see breakout downward, breaching the Bollinger envelop before expecting a reversal. If "reversal" happens at this point of time potential for correction is higher, and continuation will follow suit.

Should correction happen, the closest resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 3.1193, follows by its 21-week moving average of 3.2337. However, based on my experience 21-week moving average is normally week in resistance or support strength. a more prudent resistance will be its 55-week moving average. 

But I am anticipating a reversal, so I believe there is a higher potential for correction to only 8-week moving average before continuation.

Therefore, I have to look more at further support as such. 

Measuring based on a larger projection set up, the level that I have recorded in my earlier entry coincided with its 61.8% projection level at 3.1475, which was also the minor 100% projection of 3.1564. 

Its present level, on the other hands, coincide with the 127% of its minor projection at 3.0941, which prompts me to anticipate a correction. The only concern is: it failed to cross back upward after penetrating this level this week.

On continuation, I believe it will eventually reach its 100% projection at 2.9484, the only obstacle will be the 161.8% support of its minor projection support at 3.0140. Again, based on my experience, this is a prudent level of support or resistance. 

Malaysia is getting expensive

Malaysia Ringgit (MYR) is in the news recently. It grew stronger against Singapore Dollar (SGD). There are mixed responses to the behavior of MYR. 

Anwar supporters were quick to claim credit for him; it has to be his policies and actions that led to increased demand for MYR. Even though the political arena still lazed with racial discrimination and incompetent leadership. These leaders main concern is alcohol being served at banquet and the latest attraction being the rain fountain at KLIA, Malaysia's international airport. When a local comedian joked about the roof leak in the international community, he is deemed unpatriotic, by these leaders.

Malaysians working in Singapore complain that it is equal to them having a pay cut, strange that the number of Malaysian crossing the border to work in Singpaore daily still doing so, suffering hours of jam just to earn some SGD, since even when MYR strengthened against SGD, they still cannot get the same income working in Malaysia, the ratio is really 3 to 1 because the pay amount remain the same, except that one in MYR while the other in SGD.

In fact, the latest local election result in Sabah this week says it all. Of the 73 seats contested, GRS ( an ally of Anwar Ibrahim) won 29 seats, its rival Warisan with 25 seats while PH with only 1 seat. DAP , a component of PH, contested for 8 seats and loss. No party can claim majority in this election, which is what I favored. At the same time, it is an indication of distrust from the people to the present political arena.

The thing is that the strengthening of MYR is not a recent thing. I have already predicted this to happened back on14th September 2024 in A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early? . Mind you, I am not saying how good I am, it is what the chart was saying at that time. This means that the market already sensed that the time that the Malaysia economy was improving.

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

In my last update on this pair, estimated its support at 4.2836, and if broken, we should see support between 3.6987 to 3.8996. It plunged to a depth of 4.0940 before correcting to a high of 4.5160, testing its 55-week moving average. It has been on a continuation downward thereafter, reaching a low of 4.1185.

I am not seeing the bottom for the time being, since the moving average alignment in agreement with its trend. Furthermore, its MACD is in the negative zone, and moving downward. It seems that there is still momentum for more downside.

Unlike SGDMYR, it is yet to reach its 61.8% projection support at 4.0821, but a stronger support should be located at 3.9510, which is its 100% minor projection and its 61.8% major projection. 

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

I estimated support for SGDMYR may be between 3.2189 to 3.2838, it reached a low of 3.1975 before congesting. It retested the 55-week moving average twice before continuation presently reaching a low of 3.1633. Is this a good time to exchange MYR for SGD (Gosh! I can't believe I am saying this one day)?

On a minor scale, it is close to its 100% projection support level of 3.1507. However, I am seeing a mild congestion before continuation, it may retrace back up and the resistance I see is 3.1888 and if broken, 3.2844. On continuation, I see the next support level will be 3.0895 to 3.1013. This is also the same level with a major projection support of 61.8%.

For the time being, the downtrend is also support by its moving average alignment as well as MACD which is presently in the negative region. 

 

The thing is that having stronger MYR is not exactly a good thing. The weaker currency earlier gave enough excuse for inflation causing price to skyrocket, reducing the spending power of the people. Even when MYR has become stronger now, price is not going down.

Singapore on the other hand, has been maintaining a strong SGD thereby limiting the effect of inflation, as a result, goods in Singapore have been affordable till now. With a stronger MYR now, Singaporeans may be a little more reluctant to spend in Malaysia. 

A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early?

 It was Malaysia's National Day on 31st August 2024. It was 2 Saturday ago.

You might expect Malaysians with great enthusiasm, rising up together to celebrate the event. On a contrary, it was more of a non-event with majority of the people treating it as another day of rest. It was a long time since I last stayed in Malaysia on this date, I sense no sign of passion for the country.

It might interest many here that 31st August in 1857 was not the day when Malaysia was complete. It was not until 16th September 1963 that Sabah and Sarawak joined the Federation, which complete the collection of all member state. The complete name of Malaysia is not just Malaysia but the United State of Malaysia. For some reason, I feel that there is a little plagiarism to the United State of America.

It took another 2 years before Singapore departed from the Federation in 1865, it declared independence on 9th August 1965.

It is because of this that some consider the actual birthday of Malaysia is 16th September and not 31st August.

I was supposed to create an entry on Malaysia on the weekend of National Day. Unfortunately, I was preoccupied with satisfying my mother's needs. 

Nevertheless, I am not late if I consider its true birthday, which is labelled as Malaysia Day.

My last update on Malaysia were So, another proof of weak government leading to a good economy? on 18th February 2024 for KLSE while Divergence after divergence after divergence... on MYR.... on 8th April 2024 for MYR and SGDMYR. 

I was actually bullish on both MYR and KLSE at the time. So am I right on both?

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

KLSE is on an uptrend, I expected resistance at between 1,674 to 1,860, which is its 61.8% projection. KLSE reached its 61.8% projection and retreated the week after National Day. It is presently supported by its 8-week moving average.

I believe KLSE should be on a correction or congestion phase with support between 1,556 to 1,615 if it breaks the 8-week moving average at 1,639. An important point is the previous high of 1,695. Should this level be breached, we may see an objective of 1,997, and 2,183. 

Fig 2. MYR weekly chart

In my last update, I noted multiple divergences on both MYR and SGDMYR, indicating potential reversals. 

Reversal came and MYR surged against both SGD and USD. Well, reversal against USD partially because USD on the decline. 

What I see for MYR now is a double top formation with neckline at 4.57, and MYR reached its objective of 4.358. 

It is congesting at the moment, with and with a reduced downward momentum since 12th August 2024. 

I believe there is more downside to this counter with support at 4.2836. 

Another import level for MYR is 4.2224. This is the previous low for the counter and crossing this will form a major double top with support between 3.6987 to 3.8996.

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart

While MYR also strengthen against SGD, SGD is more resilient. It congested after breaking its 144-week moving average. For the time being, I do not see a very specific top formation for this counter.

There is a mild downside potential though. If SGDMYR not managed to pull itself back up, its next level of support will be between 3.2189 to 3.2838 using projection. 

As far as I concern, the Malaysia political arena remains in a messy state with the Government remain under the scrutiny of a strong opposition. Many will consider it troubling because the government's hands are tied. Me on the other is happy with the outcome, this leads to little interference to the economy allowing it to recover.

In fact, this is very similar to the US Republican's ideology emphasizing free market with minimum government control. 

With a stale mate situation in the Malaysia political arena, the politicians WILL have to listen to the people. They will less and less able to use racial topics to divide and conquer. My only hope is for Malaysians to be wiser in future electing people who REALLY willing to serve them, like Khairy.

Divergence after divergence after divergence... on MYR....

 Less than a month after my last trip back, I am again heading home to KL, I am travelling alone this time.

Why? It is my brother's birthday. The is only my mother and the maid at home, not much to celebrate, which is why I am heading home. 

It is also in the coming week that the Malay community celebrate their Hari Raya Puasa after a month of fasting during Ramadan. It is a big event for the Malay as well as the Muslim worldwide.

Since I am heading for Malaysia, I might as well conduct a read on MYR. My last update on MYR was Did SGD get weaker? dated 19th November 2023. The entry was due to my suspicion that SGD might get weaker than MYR in the near future.

The entry focused on SGD and MYR was not really analyzed. Since then, MYR turned weaker against SGD.  

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

From the chart, MYR further weakened against USD. However, it barely broke its previous high before retreating, an indication of weakness. 

As can be seen from the chart, there are multiple divergences on MACD every time MYR reached a new high. 

In the short run, there is a sign for continuation downtrend, I suspect there will be support between 4.62 to 4.67. This also coincide with the 55-week moving average support level. 

Is MYR itself is strengthening? 

Let's check a second pair, SGDMYR.

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

Similar behavior is seen on SGDMYR, with numerous divergences, although lesser than USDMYR. This is mainly due to USD less stable than SGD.

I can only use retracement, which yield a support at 3.43, coinciding with its 55-week moving average.

At present, the moving average alignment is still healthy, giving me an impression that MYR itself is on continuation with the recent strengthening a correction. 

Did SGD get weaker?

 I did a piece on Malaysia titled On the road to radicalization under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim on 28th October 2023. I was negative on its overwhelming support for Hamas as I feel that the direction it took is not conducive to the progress of the country. It is an act of the prime minister to redirect the people away from the governance incompetence of his government.

MYR indeed weakened on the week that followed, but also created a potential reversal signal. MYR further strengthened against both SGD and USD the subsequent week. I was anxious with the new development. Was I wrong in my analysis?

My first reaction was to change my position, after all, it did seem like a trend reversal. 

However, there is something in me telling me to hold off my decision, patience!

First off, the changes seem impulsive, and market may be reacting too some surprises. What I found an article on USD titled US Dollar Drops Sharply As Weak Data Puts Recession Fears In Focus. 

It probably spooked the market and lead to a plunge in USD. On the other hand, it made MYR seemingly strengthen against USD. However, it did not explain why it also strengthened against SGD. 

In the end, there are many things on the world that I cannot explain, and it worthwhile not to pursue this route. Further more, it may lead to a subjective misread on my charts. 

So another week has past and I  felt may be there is enough bars to see if SGD has indeed weakened against MYR.

Fig 1. SGDMYR weekly chart

SGDMYR actually broke through the previous high of 3.4938 before it retreated from the new high of 3.5166. It fell to 3.4164 before closing above the 21-week moving average. The downtrend is relatively weak with such a long tail. 

Further to that, the bodies of the bars overlapped during this down trend. it is a kind of indication that there is hesitation in its move and SGDMYR is possibly in a correction phase. 

A harami is formed with this week's movement closing above the 8-week moving average. Dow it mean that it is reversing again? It is a possibility, but there is a need for confirmation bar.

It is still possible for SGDMYR for further downslide, with the urge for the chart to touch its 55-week moving averge and the 100% projection support level of 3.37.  

What is the upside? 

If we are seeing continuation at the point of time, we should still be seeing 3.6225 after retesting 3.5176.

However, it is only a comparison between SGD and MYR. What about SGD itself?

Fig 2. SGD weekly chart

In my last update on SGD in Oil creeping up? I estimated strengthening of SGD against USD as the pair was touching the 55-week moving average. It did not.

Instead, USD strengthened further against SGD peaking at 1.3763. Coincidentally, this is the 100% projection resistance of its minor move. 

It did reverse down there after.

The weakness in the US market brought USD back below the moving averages, which also support further down trend. In addition, the MACD has also crossed downward, further supporting the notion of further downslide.

While the bars also overlapping which for me is indication of counterwave, it seems there is stronger momentum to go further south. 

However, there are a few support levels that is crucial for this trend.

First off, the previous low of 3.1723.  Crossing this level will give a clearer indication of its direction. Below it is 1.30320, which is the low of 29th January 2023, reversal of the previous down trend.

The other levels will be the major projection support between 1.228862 to 1.285007. 

Fig 3. Crude Oil Light weekly chart

With stronger SGD against USD, one other chart that I will look into is crude oil, which was the original intention of this entry. I noticed recently that the petrol price came down while I was pumping fuel to my car, it is worthwhile checking up on.

In my last analysis Oil creeping up?, Crude oil was congesting. I placed 2 scenarios over where it may be going. On the upside, I have placed the range of 92.34 to 94.746 as its resistance. 

Oil peaked at 95.03 before reversing.

It has since broken through the moving averages this week below the 144-week moving average of 77.78, closing at 75.84.

I suspect that Crude oil may retest its moving averages not limiting to that of 144, 89 and 55 before continuation.

From Fibonacci standpoint, the next level of support is its 61.8% projection support at 53.71. However, another support level worth noting is the previous low of 63.64, which may cause crude oil to reverse. 

If oil manage to break through these levels, then the 100% projection support at 28.17 is a possibility. 

Now it is a little too far fetch, isn't it? How can oil hit this low in midst of such world turbulence? There are already wars on 2 fronts and threat of more happening in the East. Should China not able to handle its internal issue, it will externalize its problem by attacking Taiwan. By then USA will be spread too thin to battle on 3 fronts. These are potential for inflation so how is it possible for oil to go down?

Well, oil has gone negative before, bottomed at -40.32, so 28.17 will still be a possibility.

If, however, Crude oil can hold fast at its 61.8% projection support, we may then witness a surge upward with target of between 169.21 to 234.46. As a consumer, I don't find this appealing.

On the road to radicalization under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim

I meant to have this entry last week, but I am really reluctant to do so. What happens in my country now really disappoints me, even though I am already expecting such development.

Conflict between Israel and Palestine began around 3 weeks ago with Palestinians attacking Israel with 5,000 missiles and paragliding into Israel territory, killing and kidnapping civilians. The Muslim world kept silent abou8t the killing, some even celebrating the attack as Heroic.

When Israel retaliated with continuous bombing of Gaza where Hamas hid, this time without prior warning, killing Palestinians in the process, the Muslim world have an uproar about cruelty of the Israel military.

My country, not wanting to lose out in how humane they are, participated in their protest against USA and Israel. 

The prime minister of my country, Anwar Ibrahim, led the call to support Hamas and their Palestinian plight, making speech in parliament denouncing Israel action. 

Syed Saddiq from Bersatu, who is also the member of parliament for Muar made continuous claims onto how Israel has for years kept the Palestinians captive for years to justify Hamas' attack on Israel.  

My favorite politician Khairy Jamaluddin, participated in protest on Israel action at the US embassy (There is no diplomatic ties between Malaysia and Israel).

Their action was so prominent that Hamas called them up thanking them for their support of the cause.

Such hypocrisy from the Malay politicians in my country!

Do they really bother with the cause of Hamas, which is to eliminate all Jews from the surface of the earth? 

No, Malaysia is half a globe away from middle east. They can yell all they want and it really have little effect on the outcome of Israel-Palestine conflict. If Malaysia is truly fighting for the cause of Palestine, how about raise a motion in United Nation to stop the conflict.

These people are simply scoring cheap political points from the voters, primarily the Muslim majority, many of whom are ignorant followers of the faith. 

If they are such staunch supporter of equality and humanity, how about addressing the racial problem at home, where the Malay Politicians constantly demonstrating their fight for Malays by suppressing the rights of Chinese? How many times have I heard them call the Chinese to go back to China? I am a third generation Chinese here and I am born in Malaysia, I identify myself first and forth most a Malaysian. 

These people disregard the welfare of the country, the people and only focus on their hold on to power by playing the race card. The staunch support to Palestinian is simply a projection of incompetence within the government to improve people's lives. the largest race is given the most benefits and give outs yet remain as the most incompetence while arrogant to be the master of land. I wonder if they even have shame within.

I have predicted during the last election that Anwar is not one who can be trusted, he is incompetent in leading the country. It seems to me that I am right in my opinion. He constantly uses smoke and mirrors to distract the people over the fault of his leadership, constantly instigating fight with the opposition while sweeping the problems of the country under the rug.

My last update on the situation of Malaysia was Occult always lead to eventual collapse in June 2023. I was negative of the future of the country at the time. I estimated that MYR will continue to be weaken and KLSE may continue to slide downward.

So what is happening now?

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

MYR closed at 4.7838 after the high of 4.7905. This surpassed 4.6884 that I estimated previously. Event after my previous post leads to another resistance of 4.8044. In addition, there is another resistance between 4.7826 to 4.9605.

The moving averages are supporting the continuation of MYR, gaps between the moving averages are widening. In addition, what seemingly looks like a 5-wave movement fails the criteria, with the "4th wave" violating the peak of 1st. There is a potential of a correction. However, there is still no sign of reversal as yet. It is worthwhile to monitor the counter. 

As spoken before, it may not be good enough to just look at MYR, mainly because USD is relatively unstable now, considering an incompetent president with a corrupt political arena focus on woke ideology. America at this moment is inching towards Communism and dictatorship. Unless there is enough determination to reverse the situation, we will see the downfall of a powerful empire.

It may be good to check out SGDMYR as well, which is more relevant.

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

The trend of SGDMYR is similar to that of MYR, It surpassed the resistance level of 3.49750 with a high of 3.5026 only to close at 3.4937. However, it broke through the previous high of 3.4938. Again, the moving average pattern support a continuation behavior. 

Where will it be heading from here on? The closest resistance I see is between 3.52316 to 3.5680. This follows by 3.63150.

The issue I see is that there is a decrease in momentum in its deterioration. It is possible that we might be seeing a correction soon. However, that will require a clear reversal signal.

The currency is indeed weakening, how is the market performing then?

Fig 3. KLSE weekly chart

In my previous entry on KLSE, I was already negative on KLSE. Since then, it reversed and retested 55-week moving average and seemingly having difficulty going higher.

Nevertheless, this creates a possibility of a breakthrough, with potential resistance between 1,471 to 1,508.

Occult always lead to eventual collapse

In my earlier entry on 20th May 2023, I noted spontaneous surge in viewership. There were 2 spikes one with 143 views followed by 68 views. I did not know at that time what the people were looking for.

After my last week's entry, I finally knew.  

There was a whopping 430 views after my address on the present US resistance against the woke culture. 

While I may feel good about having viewership of such size, it will not last and once the heat dies off, it will be gone. I should just stay on course with focus on technical analysis, after all, my JC teacher ever told me not to discuss on politics as I tends to be subjective.

It has been quite a while since I update the Malaysia situation. I have meant to include an entry in March 2023, the article was a little tough to complete at the time for some reason, coupled with the death of my father, led me to put aside that entry, 

I have decided to put it on freezer since it was outdated when I came back to blogging.

I came across MYR today while running through the forex charts, it compels me to have this entry one way or another. Just for comparison, I have included the charts I did earlier for time lapse comparison.

I went through GBP, EUR and SGD and noted continuation with USD weakens against all these components, with exception of MYR. 

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart (earlier work in March 2023)

I have noted MYR weakness against USD in March 2023, with the chart broke through and stayed above the moving averages. It has a high potential of further weakness against USD.

Fig 2. MYR weekly chart (latest update)

After its correction to the moving average, the pair continues to trust upward, with MYR continue to devalue against USD.

what does this mean? 

My aunt was a little sour when we met while I was in Malaysia this round, claiming that my family is having a better life in Singapore. I did not understand what she meant at the time.

If USD is in process of devaluation, weaker MYR against USD only means that MYR is performing even worse. 

Smaller MYR leads to escalating inflation with prices souring upward. No wonder my every return met with higher expenditure on food. The only solution will be focus on home cook as grocery is the only thing where government with some power to price control, like chicken and oil.

Looking at the chart, it has already broken the 61.8% retracement and testing the 78.6% retracement of 4.6341, congesting below this level, forming a flag with potential to go higher.

It is also reaching the 61.,8% projection of 4.6884 with further objective of 4.9760. MYR5 for 1 USD is becoming true as we speak.

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart (earlier work in March 2023)

Looking at my work in March 2023, SGDMYR has just broken the neckline of a double bottom and poise to go higher with a weaker MYR against SGD.

Fig 4. SGDMYR weekly chart (latest update)

With the latest up-date, the direction has not changed with continuation upward. It has surpassed the 61.8% projection resistance at 3.4313 with further objective of 100% projection at 3.568.

It has however reached its short term 100% projection of 3.4400 with the next resistance of 3.4787.  

I suspect there may be a correction coming before heading higher.

Fig 5. KLSE (KLCI) weekly chart (earlier work in March 2023)

In my March 2023 read, there were already multiple indications further downtrend. Worst was the completed head and shoulder formation with retest of the neckline completed. It was already firm at the time that KLSE (or KLCI) was going down.

Fig 6. KLSE (KLCI) weekly chart (latest update)

In the latest chart, it is clear that KLSE has just past the 61.8% retracement lineof the uptrend during the pandemic. It pauses this week to retest this resistance line at 1,391. I suspect it may go further to the moving averages before heading further south with head and shoulder objective of 1,255. 

It is also very close to reaching its 61.8% projection line of 1,359 with 100% projection at 1,270. 

It is really a concerning that Malaysia, a country with so much natural resources, continue have its economy being flush down the drain. I am really sad to see my country reaching such stage of deterioration.

Mean while, what is the government doing with Anwar Ibrahim as its leader? 

Nothing?

well, not really. 

There was a recent movie release about Anwar Ibrahim and his drive for "refomasi". Such "heroic" act, escalating his status equal that of Mandala. 

But no, he is not Mandala. Far from it, there is no effective measures issued from the government to improve the economy. Moreover, they focus their energy on confrontational act against critics and opposition to have them silenced.

I am no fan of Mahathir, I despise him as the reason for the present state of Malaysia. However, it is not the role of Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of the country, to personally tackle the corruption of Mahathir and his family. Yet it seems to be Anwar's personal vendetta to put Mahathir and his family in jail.

All these while he places the corrupts of UMNO in position of power, there is no more mention of pursue of accountability on these people. Zahid is very safe.

At this point of time, don't a moment think that people who voted him in push for accountability of his incompetence, nepotism and collusion. They believe in his lies of maintaining stability in the country and willing to close a blind eye on the existence of tumor within the governing body.

Malaysia is still sick and it is getting more and more serious every single day. It is run by incompetence who are unfortunately only great on their wits. I only see a continuation in the deterioration of the country.

MYR is actually doing well!

After I did my few entries on the currencies in Why oil price went up? and Is USD on free fall?, I wondered,"what about Malaysia?"

In my last up-date on Malaysia in How is the market judgement on PRU15 of Malaysia during December 2022,  I have noted a little up-side while a higher potential for further slide in KLSE. At the same time, I have found it interesting that MYR was in fact strengthening against the USD, of course with a possibility of correction before further downward movement (meaning MYR strengthening against USD).

KLSE did climb further but with the multiple level of moving averages resisting on its path, the upthrust is weak. 

What about the MYR then?

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

USD actually failed to further correct and continued on the downslide against MYR. It has broken through the 144-week moving average and presently testing the moving average support turned resistance, coincidentally the 61.8% retracement line.

Nevertheless, the mild congestion earlier allows me to use projection to determine the possible supports, which is between 4.0525 to 4.2003. There is one retracement support within this range at 4.1514.

What happen when MYR compares with SGD?

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

It was really a long time ago when I mentioned SGDMYR in December 2022. It went up, peaked and reversed downward. It paused and presently breaking new low, only to be supported by the 55-week moving average this week.

While having new lows, the body indicates divergence as the body of latest 2 bars are green. Considering the counter is floating right above the 55-week moving average, it is possible for SGDMYR to bounce upward from here.

At the same time, the earlier correction does indicate some more downslides. I see the support levels at between 3.1199 to 3.19397.  The target coincides with the 61.8% retracement line at 3.1138. 

Interesting development in SGD...and I missed the entry point on SGDMYR

 This is the fifth day of my quarantine for Covid-19. I would have been very happy if I am working under a firm, Covid-19 patients are still getting 7 days MC and this would be a good opportunity to take a good rest from work even when you are healed on the 4th day. Unfortunately, I am working for myself and I can't deceive myself. sigh.....

Anyway,I was on CNY during the weekend with a simple entry China intervention of CNY . However, as the week coming close to the end, it seems like the confirmation has not really arrived.

Fig 1. CNY weekly chart

I mentioned during the weekend that its movement is important this week as it will confirm or deny the reversal formation of the shooting star. It is Thursday and CNY barely moved. 

Is it possible that the Chinese government saw a retraction of CNY descend last week and thought that the worst was over and therefore no action needed? Or maybe they are the work on Friday people deciding to monitor the whole week before taking action? Or is there a different fraction of people who are selling CNY while China selling USD, thereby neutralizing the effect?

Nevertheless, if CNY maintain this pattern till the end of this week, it is likelihood that reversal is still not in sight yet. 

Anyway, while glancing through the currency sector, I did a check on SGD yesterday. I recall my last entry on SGD was 1st May 2022, titled Re-visiting USDSGD, I can't believe that it was that long. I estimated the resistance at 1.40, it broke through with its peak at 1.449. While I looked through SGD yesterday, I found something interesting.

Fig 2. SGD weekly chart

Apparently, SGD also did a shooting star last week, except that its body was green that may still indicate a continuation.

Beginning of this week, it opened higher, but receded and even broke the low of last week's low. 

This created a very different scenario; SGD formed an Engulfed pattern. Even though it has still to reach the end of the week and required another week of movement for confirmation, I am seeing potential reversal here for SGD.

What does it mean?  Possibly cheaper chicken at the supermarket? What might be more important is a cheaper oil price. Why?

While oil price was dropping the last few weeks, it was because the strengthening of USD, it did not translate to cheaper oil price locally as long as currency of the country I reside depreciates against USD. The depreciation neutralizes the lower oil price.

There is another assumption I can make from this, USD may be weakening or correcting after its mad dash up-ward.

I may not want to estimate its support as yet, since the formation is not completed. I will definitely come back to this counter for a more thorough study.

What of its neighbor, Malaysia?

I took interest in this counter because I wanted to convert some Malaysian Ringgit to SGD, and I wondered when it was a good time to do so?

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart

I did a brief glance during the mid of last week and noted a flag formation broke out and at the time it reached the 21-week moving average support. It has not reached its objective. I figured I can wait.

Well, that WAS a wrong decision.....

It failed to break the moving average and rebounded, then went higher this week. It is presently resisted by the Bollinger band. But looking at the behavior of the bar and the band envelop, I believe that it will go higher. It may congestion outside the envelop next week.

SGD is strengthening.

Malaysians are getting poorer...?

 I want to talk about Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) today. The constant complaints recently on youtube.com that feature Malaysia political situation kept talking about weakening MYR leading to inflation. This causes goods becoming more expensive to the locals.

It is quite true, my travel back to KL has increased in frequency after rules were relaxed, I experienced on my return each time that things were getting more expensive, especially food. 

There was this noodle stall that was my favorite. Its bowl of noodle used to be MYR5.00 before lock-down and it is now MYR8.00. This is an increase of 60%! 

I didd a piece of article on Asean's currencies including MYR titled All the disruptions....and is Asean in trouble? in July 2022, I compared MYR with SGD then, I estimated the next resistance for MYR to be between MYR3.25474 to MYR3.32340. It apparently breached the lower resistance level on 11th August 2022.

Today I will conduct a more thorough analysis of MYR comparing it to both USD and SGD.

Fig 1. MYR Weekly Chart

MYR was in a congestion band since 2017. I find it quite interesting as at certain point of time between 2015 till 2018, it was very close to breaking the neckline and it came true. We would be having a very different reality now. 

It coincides with the last general election of Malaysia. It seems like the market did not like the coalition that took over BN and know that it would be a disaster.

Since then, a multiple-year triangle was form and break-out happened on round 8thMay 2022. Using the triangle formula, I see an objective of MYR5.009 per USD.

This is a strange sensation for me, I have heard about MYR5.00 per USD. It was a joke that my teacher told the class during my technical charting class. 

The joke went like this:

" It was 1998 and in the midst of the Asian financial crisis, Soros and his team of fund managers were attacking the Asian currencies, MYR was depreciation fast. 

The prime minister at the time, Mahathir, called Soros and said, " Mr Soros, the situation is getting very serious here right now. The outcome is not going to be good. How about we arrange a meeting for a discussion and see what we can do about it?"

Soros agreed and said, " I'll see you at 5 then." "

Of course, MYR5.00 per USD did not come true then, it was close at MYR4.70. Mahathir played punk and fixed the exchange rate at MYR3.80 per USD, he also limited the outgoing MYR to MYR10,000 per person per time to stop the bleed. 

It worked but with a bitter aftermath. The integrity of Malaysia's economy took a hit and investors shy away for years.  It was one of the last countries to fully recover from the finance crisis.

Let's get back to the chart on the Fibonacci set up.

There are 2 possible zig zags that I can use for this counter.

Using set up in blue, I can see resistance at MYR4.80 to MYR5.40. 

As for the shorter term set up (part of the triangle), resistance at between MYR4.359 to 4.585. MYR is presently within this zone. At the same time, the 100% expansion measurement indicates resistance at MYR5.035. 

For the time being, all indication is heading to MYR5. 

Seems like Soros is going to meet with Mahathir after all.

Let's move on to SGDMYR, this is closer to my heart.

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly Chart

The behavior of this pair is different. There is a long stretch of congestion between 2018 till 2022 and MYR is seen weakening further. It seems that SGD is a much stronger currency and manage to withstand onslaught of USD more than MYR.

However, I nevertheless feel a little troubled as I am seeing slight contradiction on the chart.

Let's look at the positive part of this chart first.

Again, there are 2 Zig Zag set ups that I can use for projection measurement. Using the blue set up, I can see resistance at between MYR3.2208 to MYR3.4630. It broke the lower resistance level, retreated and now the same level is resisting its ascension.

Using a shorter term set up, the more immediate resistance level is between 3.15442 to 3.2950. 

There is one question here, if the lower level is crossed, why would I still mention this?

Fig 3. SGDMYR 4-Hourly Chart

 It can be seen on the 4-hourly chart that these levels do affect behavior of the counter.

I mentioned about the troubling factor, what is it?

It has something to do with the chart behavior itself. Considering the RED line in fig 2., I can't help to consider the possibility of a counter wave after the ascension (or in this case, the descension of MYR). 

The loooonnnnggg stretch of congestion between 2018 till now is a possible B wave of the counter wave pattern, and we might be seeing C.

As can be seen from Fig 3, the recent movement of the pair seems to show some kind of failure in its climb and MYR is testing its 55,89 and 144-moving averages with weakening of 8 and 21-moving averages. 

While the weekly chart maintains its strong support of further up-trend of the chart, it is worth taking note of such signals as the chart is trying to tell me something.

All the disruptions....and is Asean in trouble?

There has been quite a lot of disruption this week., and it all started with Covid-19. 

My wife was the first to contract the virus, she started feeling uncomfortable by Monday. but even on Wednesday, her self-test showed negative in the morning. Only when she visited the doctor at 10AM that the ART test showed positive, she ended with MC for 7 days, technically more than a week.

As a result, both my kids were sent to my mother-in-law's place.  I became the bridge to transport whatever necessary between the 2 locations. The need to bring things around is certainly  a tiresome thing to do.

Came Saturday and my son came down with a slight fever, he did a self-test and it was positive. So by afternoon time, I sent to fetch him to prevent as much as possible any spread at my mother-in-law's place. 

So now I am living with 2 positive on Covid-19, still need to transport necessities in between, which explain why I only managed to start my blog at this time of the weekend. I amtired and my eyes are half closed.....

There were a few things that I wanted to type in, including up-dates on Dow, Nikkei and Hang Seng ( apparently Nikkei and Dos has reversed up-ward due to the interest rate hike ), and an afterthought on HKD ( more on China because the continuous bad news on its economy on the ground does not  align with the government's reporting ). 

Nevertheless, I want an entry on Asean. Just few days ago, I came across this travel documentary that interestingly mentioned Thai Baht was on free fall.

Video 1. Thai Baht Situation 

Then yesterday another video talked about the falling of Malaysian Ringgit.

Video 2. Malaysian Ringgit falling

This led me to wonder what happened.

In earlier blogs entry of mine What is USD doing? , GBP and EUR continue with their downslides , What's with USDJPY and where is theading?  and Revisiting USDSGD , I mentioned a general strengthening of USD against other currencies. I wandered if the "weakening of IDR and MYR is due to the same reason.

To check if it is the USD phenomenon, I have to compare them with a different currency, and I have decided to use SGD, currency which country is part of Asean.

I have already mentioned USD strengthening against SGD, if the same applies to IDR and MYR, then we should see side trend for these 2 currencies.

Let's first look at SGDMYR, since Malaysia is my country of origin.

Fig 1 SGDMYR weekly Chart

Straight away, I can say it does not look good on MYR. First of all, a huge hammer formation on 15th May 2022gave an indication of its direction, the correction that followed did not help, forming a flag with support at 21-week moving average. It is going to climb further.

Using Fibonacci projection here, I would say the next level of resistance is MYR3.25474 to MYR 3.32340.

Its local economy has high dependence on foreign imports of raw material, the weakening of MYR made production very costly since transactions are in USD.

Chicken is the most prominent news of Malaysia recently. The chicken farmers whose feeds depend on imports are pressured to increase the price of chicken. To make the voters happy, the government put a price ceiling on chickens. So the chicken farmers tried to increase export to Singapore to manage their margin. This further reduced the number of chicken supply locally. The smart-ass government then banned chicken exports to force chicken farmers to sell their chickens locally.

The moves led to closing down of chicken farms and some owners even said that they are going to drive Grab instead.

It also led to a price hike in chicken in Singapore, the chicken cost up by 30% to 50%. Not only that, it re-directed the Singapore government to buy chicken from Indonesia. If this works out, it will kill all the chicken farmers in Malaysia.

The political situation in the country is not helping, incompetence leadership and weak opposition with focus on power struggle. The people will be the one suffering. 

Let's move on to Thailand. 

Fig 2. SGDTHB Weekly Chart

While Thai Baht is more gentle, just like its culture. Even so, Thai Baht is also weakening. I believe there are 2 major sources of income for Thailand, agriculture and tourism. Tourism might be more important to Thailand than its agriculture products, which many comprise of rice.

It is quite desperate to re-open its country for tourists as the country's economy is really in a bad shape. Recent stability in politics does not help as they might not be competent in improving the economic condition. They used to have a prime minister Taksin who was capable, but his policies eroded the vested interest of the upper class and it is rumored that his popularity over-shadowed the King. They have him removed and destroyed his family.

Again, if I use Fibonacci projection for measurement, Thai Baht will see resistance at THB25.37315 to THB26.3238.

If these 2 countries are on deterioration. Is there any member did not do as bad?

Fig 3. SGDIDR Weekly Chart

The SGDIDR chart is an indication of a pair that is on side trend. For the time being, I do not see weakening of IDR, if any, it might actually be doing much better than others. For some reason, I feel that it will strength against SGD in the short future.

For the moment, I am reluctant to perform any measurement on this pairing due to its side trend behavior. 

My understanding here is that Indonesia has been having 2 succession of good president, focusing on improving the country's wellbeing.