What's with the obsession of Ruble falling?

 I am back in Kuala Lumpur again this week to visit my mother. While I am making it a point for this journey every month, it is tiring. 

Don't for once assume that it is not tiring doing nothing on a coach for 6 hours. The wait to arrive at the destination somehow drains the life out of me. I could still take it during my younger years, but it is getting more challenging nowadays.

My mum not doing that well, age is catching up with her. She is getting forgetful and having challenge in controlling her bladder. As such I have made an appointment with the Chinese Gynecologist for her on Monday. Seems like the days of hospital visit is here again!

Anyway, I am also aware that Ruble was on the news last week, at least on the youtube.com, all allies of Ukraine claiming Russia's losing war against Ukraine and that the Ruble was tumbling. This stirred my curiosity.

I have not been following on the Ukraine war for some time. It is really not my interest, and with the war dragging on for over 2 years, it is heading towards stalemate. I also dragged the Europeans into the war by now. All these is simple because US wants to drain Russia of its resources.

It is just that all these news on Ukraine war suddenly reemerged on my Facebook. They all with a common theme, the Ruble is crashing.

The question is, is it?

In my last entry on Ruble in A reading on Russia Moex and Ruble dated September 22nd 2022 (Gosh! has it been that long?), I was relatively inconclusive on its direction except with its possibility of a correction with resistances estimated at between RUB65.65 to RUB72.499 and between RUB74.94 to RUB90.40. It hit Rub100.965 by October 16th, 2023, before retreating.

Fig 1. Ruble weekly chart

Since then, it went on a decline until November 24th, 2023, followed by another long stretch of correction, then continued with its decline to the present level supported by its 89-week moving average, which also coincides with its minor 61.8% projection.

IT has created a hammer candle stick this week. While it may indicate a reversal at this point, it closed with a red body, giving me an impression of a weak indication of reversal while possibility of continuation, at least for now.

It may eventually reach its 100% projection at RUB77.16.

On a major Zig Zag formation, it tells that there is still some way to go for Ruble to its 61.8% projection at RUB37.54 while its 100% at -RUB1.742. The latter is a little far fetch at this point of time, but if you have a negative value on oil, why not Ruble?

Anyway, these are all indication that Ruble is strengthening against the USD, or USD getting weaker.

Does it have anything to do with Saudi not renewing its contract with the USA to maintain the oil trade based on USD? This will lead to a lower demand for USD and potentially causing USD to fall, not only against Ruble but also others.

May be it will be good for me to check on USD performance in the coming week.