Memory of a friend and, Engulf pattern on Dow Jones?

My return to Kuala Lumpur seems to be a monthly event by now. 

On one end, I have to fulfill my role as a son and brother. At the same time, I believe my age is catching up with me. I took a coach home the last round and drive back this time. The coach with seats compatible to that of first-class flight, while I can stop as much as I like when I drive. Yet neither of them is less tiring.

My trip back 6this round is unhappening, just going through the routine of bringing my mum to places and cook for her. 

When I left the house heading to the market one day, I saw a property development in the horizon, the location used to be the low cost residential blocks in the district.

I still remember the first time I went there. I was still six, on my way to school in a school bus. The school bus topped at the residential blocks. It was stench with the smell of rotting rubbish. Till this day, I cannot comprehend how people can tolerate such stench day after day.

After some time, a number of new blocks were added to the place, it was of height of 16 floors, which we used to derive its name.

I remember the school bus added a few passengers for its trip. There was this boy called Ah Keong, one year younger than me, well built, strong voice, chiseled face with short spiky hair.

While he was from a poor family, he was cheerful. At the time, watches were getting popular, many parents bought for their kids. Ah Keong for a while did not have one. One day, he showed us one that he wore one his wrist. he felt proud because he finally possessed one, even though it belonged to his father.

His happiness was short lived because it stopped moving after a short while, joy turned to worrisome because he was not sure what his father would say that night.

I left for Singapore after primary 5, and I have not heard from him until 2 years later.

On one of my returns from Singapore for my school holidays, I chatted with my brothers on updates during my absence. It was then that my brother told me that Ah Keong has passed away. The news came to me suddenly and I was not prepared for it. while I did not react in appearance, I felt as if a ton of bricks just hit me. 

 I asked my brother how he died, he told me that Ah Keong was sick with a high fever, and in a state unconsciousness, he sleepwalked, climbed the balcony of his home and fell to his death.

As I stared at the build site in the Horizon, memory of him resurfaced. He did not have the chance to enjoy the full extent of his life. It also makes me asked myself, " now that I have opportunity to live to close to the full extent of my life now, have I made full use of it?"

The answer is not, there were times when I seemingly wasted my time on very short-term views while lacking vision of my future. Thinking back, I DO regret wasting my time on fruitless pursue, and it is too late to go back. It is also a mistake that I do not intent for repeat, at least for my children. 

As a result of my own demise, I constantly monitor my children's progress, discuss with them about their next step in life, their future. I want to make sure that they are certain where they want to go.

Having said all these, I miss my friend. Probably I will still be able to meet him one day.

Anyway, back to charting. 

The US Fed announced this week that they are concern that inflation is still strong in the country and they intent to increase interest rate to curb the inflation. I believe it was Thursday that they made this announcement, because it led to a 600 points drop  for Dow Jones that day.

My update on Dow Jones was Dow Jones started its descent Dow Jones started its descend dated 14th April 2024. I believe that it was heading down at the time. Unfortunately, it was supported by the 21-week moving average, reversed and headed north after that. 

Will the news this round trigger its descent?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

To start with, while Dow Jones reached a higher high, it results in further divergence, sending warnings of weakness in its climb. 

At the same time, it is stopped by its Bollinger band envelop, which also coincide with multiple resistances resulted from various projection measurements. There are at least 3 resistances in this region.

The issue now is, is Dow Jones reversing? 

On first look, it seems that Dow Jones also produced an engulfed reversal pattern. However, the shorter bar does not seem to be short enough. This creates the possibility of a congestion stage, especially when it stops short of penetrating its 8-week moving average. 

It is tricky to determine i it is to head down or up at this moment, the movement in the coming week will be crucial.

For the time being, I feel there is a higher chance of Dow heading downward, but it may not go far.

It is likely to be supported by its 55-week moving average presently at 36,603. Crossing this level, the next support level will be 34,503 to 35,553.

Should it continue, next level of resistance will be 41,291.