Is Nikkei beginning it's descend?

I touched on Dow Jones again last week noting its gain in momentum for descend, which leads me to look into other indices more related to me. 

So I will concentrate on Nikkei 225 this week.

The last time I checked on Nikkei225 was on the last day of year 2023, when I did a year end review of the 3 main indices and recorded in Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng dated 31st December 2023.

I used the monthly chart then for my analysis to enable a farther vision of the counter.  I was with an opinion that Nikkei should be rising up with resistance observed between 35,500 to 38,500. 

Since then, I have not touched on Nikkei over its higher time frame, since the time frame I used (3 minutes chart) for my trading is too far from the higher time frames to be affected.

It takes a long time for a 3-minute chart to reach the next resistance / support level on a monthly or even weekly chart. Even when reaching the said levels, it fluctuates in such wide dynamic range.

In short, daily chart is useful enough for movement prediction.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

Since my last read, Nikkei has broken through the resistance levels that I have highlighted, reaching a high of 41,124 before retreating. This also coincide with the 100% projection resistance of its major move. 

Its descend is with momentum, breaking through the 8-week moving average after a short pause. It also broke through and stayed beliow its 21-week moving average. 

I suspect it will either congest or correct in the coming week, but will descend further there after.\

55-week moving average will be the crucial point for Nikkei, since it also coincide with the 61.8% retracement line at 34,396 and 61.8% projection line 33,655. 

It is also interesting to note that there is a divergence on MACD, even though it is a minor one. There is a need for more divergence signal for more certainty. 

In addition, its upward movement seems to follow a 3-wave behavior, giving me the impression that this is a counter wave.

This counter needs to be monitor closely to determine if Nikkei is indeed reversing.