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My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

3/13/2022

What is USD doing?

 While the war between Ukraine and Russia is on-going this week, there as been little change so far on the direction of the few indices that I was focusing on, they are still on the way down. 

This made me wonder how the currencies are doing right now, in particular SGD?

Fig 1 GBPUSD weekly chart
Fig 2 EURUSD weekly chart
Fig 3 USDJPY weekly chart
Fig 4 USDSGD weekly chart

Not that I am spending a lot of time and effort in analyzing individual charts, I observed one common behavior from these charts.

USD is getting stronger. This can be seen from both EUR and GBP weakening against USD while USD strengthening itself against JPY and SGD. Imagine that! After printing so much money USD actually become stronger?

It is also interesting to note that USD strengthening itself against both Asian currencies  since 3rd January 2021 while it was not until 21st Febuary 2021 that the 2 European currencies weakening against USD. Yes, it is 2021 and not 2022, it is not the Ukraine-Russia warfare that cause this. 

The strengthening of USD against EUR and JPY is more serious than GBP and SGD, Its rise against GBP and SGD is more gradual, both are either breaking through or just broken and retested the moving averages.. EUR and JPY on the other hand have their trend set since last year (March 2021 for JPY and Oct 2021 for EUR).

Among the currencies, is there any that are strong against USD?

Fig 5 AUD andd NZD weekly chart

I am placing these 2 charts side by side because they look like twins. Both counters actually weakened against USD at the same time as EUR and GBP , on 21st February 2021. However, both descents stopped on the week of 30st January 2022 and has been climbing since then. 

They are both testing multiple moving averages at  this point of time. From the looks of it, it is possible that they ill continue to rise against USD in the near future. What cause me o conclude as such?

I am looking at the behavior of its higher time frame moving averages, they do not seem to be interested in crossing while converging on each other. So even if they cross, it is likely that the crosses are weak. Further more, there seems to have more momentum for these 2  chaps to move further up.

Nevertheless, we might see both counters to draw back a little before moving forward.


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