Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng

We have finally come to the end of 2023. Today is the last day of the year and I thoguht to myself, " what shall I write?"

May be the best thing to analyze are the 3 major indices to me: Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. 

I am elevating the time frame to monthly chart for this purpose.

Fig 1. Dow Jones monthly chart

My last update on Dow Jones is Is Dow Jones reversing as well? dated November 5th 2023. That was about a month ago.

I was skeptical that Dow Jones on reversal at the time, I believe that Dow's major trend was down and that it was in the beginning of a counter wave move to retest its previous high. I expected the major trend was still down.

Well, it did retest its 61.8% projection resistance and also the previous top of 35,679, and not only crossed, it went higher and surpass its previous peak of 36,952, reaching a high of 37,778 this week. Well, may be Dow Jones has decided to end 2023 with a boom.

So what is going to happen next?

On its minor move, Dow Jones seems to have hit the 100% projection resistance, calculated at 37,481, with 127% projection resistance of 39,127 next. It is possible that Dow Jones will open with a correction downward, may be to its 61.8% projection of 35,169 before heading higher.

In its major move, it is yet to reach its resistance zone of 40,295 to 47,454.

These are the technical readings using Fibonacci projection. However, I find the gradient of its climb is gentle. As such I believe that it may have limited upside. 

Fig 2. Nikkei monthly chart

My last update on Nikkei was Nikkei moved! on November 4th 2023. I was positive of Nikkei with an estimate objective of 33,425. Nikkei reached my objective and hit a high of 33,853 before retreating and supported by its 21-week moving average. 

By the end of the year, Nikkei is retesting its previous high, closing at 33,824 by the end of the year.

What is expected of Nikkei in the coming year then?

The chart maintains its support for an uptrend as its moving averages are still in alignment. While the final month demonstrated a potential hanging man, the bar was not hung high above the previous bar. It does not give me the feeling of reversal, instead it seems more like a correction or congestion to me.

For the time being, I see a few resistances for Nikkei. On minor move, it is close to reaching its projection zone of between 35,493 to 38,530. In its major move, it is congesting at its 61.8% projection of 33,249. The next resistance level will be 38,655. 

Fig 3. Hang Seng monthly chart

My last update on Hang Seng was Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023 dated October 1st 2023. In addition, I have an earlier entry titled Hang Seng on continuation...again.... dated August 19th 2023. 

I am in conflict in my view on Hang Seng, it is on a down trend, at the same time, I believe it is in a counter wave move with a tendency of up thrust thereafter. 

If based on its double top formation, Hang Seng has yet to reach its 61.8% Expansion support of 13,509, not to mention its 100% expansion at 8,794. If these levels are coming true, Hang Seng is pretty screwed.

For the moment, I prefer to depend on its projection calculation, the levels are more realistic and relevant. Hang Seng has reached its 127% projection support level before it rebounded. At present, it is close to retesting its low of 14,597 and its 127% projection support of 15,480.

Hang Seng closed at end of the year at 17,047 with a hammer. It seems that Hang Seng hopes to start 2024 with a new beginning. It will be interesting to see what will happening in the coming year. If it decides to move up, we will likely see possibility of 22,077, which is its 55-month moving average resistance.