Singtel, SIA and Straits Asia

I read from CNA today a forumer was asking advice on 4 counters, SIA, Straits Asia, Singtel and Jiutian. He seems lost at what to do as he was stuck in these counters when STI fell. As far as I know, he is on margin. So if the counters fall a little further it would be margin call and he will need to top up or force sell the counters.

It reminded me of my AFP more than 10 years ago, I was not on margin but contra. It is painful when your loss is great but you will have to bite the bullet and let go.

There are many advices given on the forum, many are asking him to average down. Poor chap, what if it continues to go against him?

this made me think, if I am in his position, what should I be doing? The priority is to see if any of the counter worth holding on to, next is to device an exit strategy. So I check up the counters.

Surprisingly, of the 4 counters I do not have up-dates on 3 of them, real lousy service provider. I think when time is up, I have to find alternate source of data base.

I do not really need to discuss Jiutian here because it was done.


Fig 1 Straits Asia Weekly Chart
I first look at Straits Asia, this is the only counter that I have data base on, so I pretty comfortable in my Metastock. The counter is not really that good, a potential head and shoulder. It has not yet crossed the necline and thus the structure cannot be confirm. If I am to let go, it will be the time when this counter falls below 2.028 (below its neckline).

the objective for this head and shoulder is 1.175.


Fig 2 Singtel Weekly Chart
Singtel is in process of forming what looks like a triangle, but short of the abcde wave pattern. If I am to do a wave count, an A wave was formed between end 2007 to end 2008, it is likely to have completed B by mid 2009 and now is in process of C, downward.

There is a little uncertainty in this counter, the indicators are 1/2 way down, I would assume it should continue to come down. If I am to let go of this counter, it would be below the mark of 2.91, which is the support envelop of the triangle.

In the long run, this counter does not look good base on Elliott wave theory. The A wave itself is a 3 waves pattern, so the counter wave may last for quite a while. If A wave has fell from 4 to 2, the C wave should travel a similar distance, so if peak is 3.5, a SGD2 drop will lead to 1.50.


Fig 3 SIA weekly Chart
This counter is the only one promising enough. It has fell off quite a bit (around 0.90) but it is really small considering it came up from the low of 9.05. So far it has not reach the supporting trendline although it is heading there. If I am to let go of this counter, it will be after it crosses the trendline. The support level for this week is around 14.60, next week 14.85 due to its ascending nature.

Just as the above counters,the indicators are coming down, so thread carefully if you are in.