Cabinet reshuffle...er...change

This is breaking news, the Singapore government has just announced a cabinet change! Wong Kan Seng is stepping down as Minister of Home Affairs and taking up the challenge of Ministry National of Security.

The explanation is that it is normal phenomenon. Ministers normally have job rotation into different post. Well, this is not so normal in Singapore. As far as my memory goes, I have not recall any of such job rotation in the past. Especially when election is getting closer.It is a little strange for such action now, isn't it? If the system is working well, why make changes?

While LHL is playing down the event and some "scholars" providing good explanation to this action such as a process of self renewal. This is commonly known as a cabinet reshuffle. This is a process which happens when the ruling party of a country become unpopular and the head of state initiate such action to remove unpopular ministers. Of course other countries do not have a large pool of ministarial title such as Minister of National Population and Talent Division (I really wonder what the heck this is?). So is Wong Kan Seng going to be like Simon Cowell?

So the conclusion is that PAP realise that its unpopularity has risen to new heights and it would reach desaster level should nothing is done. Our deputy Prime Minister was instrumental in the escape of MAs Selamat and the very fact that PM Lee not only defended but retained him has seriously damaged the integrity of the party, certainly it seems that there is no such thing as meritrocracy in the ruling party.

The highlight of the reshuffling this round is a clear indication that PM Lee needs to remove the liability in a subtle way. While DPM Wong seems to be taking up more roles, he has been in fact "明升暗降“. As compare to a minister of Home Affairs, Minister of National Security and overseeing National Population and Talent are certainly much more minor.

No offence to DPM Wong, but I definitely do not feel that he qualify for the job of National Security. Mas Selamat escape under his care and this is a real good track record of his incompetency.

Another thing about this reshuffling is that it is indication of election might be much further away. PM Lee needs to get the new formation work to show case his success. My feel is that it is unlikely to hold election in two months time when the seats are not even warmed. A normal pace for a person to get used to a new post is 1/2 a year before result can even be seen.

I suspect that PAP realize that the risk is too great to call for election now ( or two months ahead ). PM Lee might want to wait until Budget announcement to spread some sweetness before hand.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

As for STI today, I am not sure if it foresee the coming reshuffling. The fall is great and at one point fell by 43 points. Technically speaking, it is on the edge of the negative gradient for Gann Grid lines, naturally, it should be down.

Both indicators are also descending, adding on to the weight. Probably STI would be going down for the next 2 days even.

The support I see comes from the 89 days moving average at 3,036, the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of 3,107 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 3,070.