USD on reversal?

I have not been up-dating much on USD vs SGD lately, partly because it fell through my last perdiction and I was spending some time figuring out what it was doing. Certain the US Government prining of USD has much to do with its further depreciation, leading to the failure in proper forecast of its move not only by me, but quite a few veterans who think that the USD rally is over due.

The other factor that I see the continue plunge of the USD is link to the rising of the indices. Somehow as far as the indices, primarily STI and DJIA is rising, the USD sinks. I can roughly explain the STI and USD link, people dump USD for SGD to invest into the Singapore Stock Market. This is taught by my teacher and I think it still applies. As for USD versus DJIA, my guess is that the US Stock Market is no longer as attractive as others in the world, so even though it rises, it does not attract enough investers to pump up the USD.


Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

Base on the weekly chart, it can be seen that the indicators for USD is at their lows, the tendency for it to reverse now is even higher than before.Further more, it is supported by its positve gradient Gann Grid line. It is however resisted by its present 21 weeks moving average at 13,284 while support of its previous low of 12,814.

Some how, I am thinking that this chart is reversed because I am counting a completion of wave B (3 waves) and a wave C should commence.


Fig 2 USD vs SGD Monthly Chart

To make sure of the reversal tendency , I moved on to the monthly chart, evidently its indicators are also at the bottom and reversing, this makes a stronger support for USD to start rising.

Of course, what's more important is knowing the relationship between USD and the STI index, if it is firm that USD is rising, this would mean STI will likely to fall, and fall hard.