The tricky part about AUDSGD

I am located in Singapore and for me, Australian Dollar movement is kind of crucial because I would some day want to tour Australia. Not that I haven't done before. The last time I did, AUDSGD was one of the lowest moment. I am waiting for the best opportunity.

Fig 1 AUDSGD weekly chart

The recent movement of AUDSGD is kind of tricky, mainly because the counter took a dip, that was on the week of 4th Jan 2019. It in fact formed a hammer, this kind of signifies a possible reversal upward. While the upward trend seemed short lived since it kind of reversed downward after 2 bars, there nevertheless is a concern here, it still has not taken out the low of the the hammer bar and the downward trend is gradual, making it a possible correction to the upshoot.

 I have drawn up 2 fibonacci, one retracement resistance, the other projection. It can be seen that AUDSGD was stopped at the 61.8% retracement resistance level. While the projection from there is 0.87364 (127%) to 0.89678(100%). 

So what are the facts so far? AUDSGD resisted by 21-week moving averages, it continues with the downtrend guided by the 8-week moving average. It reversed at the 61.8% retracement line, confirmed  by it crossing the 50% retracement. Signs still tell a continuity.

This is a little abnormal method, but let's look at daily chart to see what might be the concern area.

Fig 2 AUDSGD Daily chart

If I apply Fibonacci retracement to the daily chart, there there is a zone which I will watch out for.

61.8% (0.94729) to 78.6% (0.93800). If AUDSGD is going to turn, this may be the point it will reverse up. But it will also have to be signified by some sort of selling climax (abnormal "huge" move) to reach and past the zone before reversing back. 

So will I get a cheaper Australia tour? Let's keep my fingers crossed.