Slacking on the new year

 I have to admit, I have been slacking at the turn of a new year. I have skipped my entry for lat weekend as I was quite lazy to move, even if it was my fingers.

During the last week of the year, my wife decided to clear her leaves and we went on a short travel to Johore Bahru after my return from Kuala Lumpur. 

At the same time, I have to plan activities for my son during his wait for exam result which is due this coming Thursday. We went for open houses in various Polytechnic so that he has some idea what his options are. Nevertheless, my advice to himis to go for Junior College as long as it is a possibility. It is still the shortest and with highest chance to reach University level, of which with more options than polytechnics.

At the same time, whenever I look at the charts, I did not feel like doing anything as they are more or less in congestion and uncertainties. Nikkei for instance is still in progress of the direction I have estimated in A plunge in Nikkei 225 this week.

In addition, the market seems to be lacking in motivation to go anywhere. I remember my master mentioned the possibility surge due to the festive joy at the end of the year. It does not seem to be happening. Instead, they all look moody, it quenches my motivation to check on charts. 

Anyway, I will work on Dow Jones and Hang Seng this week, since Nikkei was done 2 weeks ago. Last p-date for Dow Jones and Hang Seng was After a week's break....., dated 11th December 2022. It is worth while doing one this week.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

In my last up-date on this counter, I estimated that it will correct only to be supported by the moving averages before continuation. Well, it corrected and is now at the moving averages, what next?

My concern at this moment is the way it is developing after hitting the moving averages. It did not bounce up and congested. At the same time, it stayed above the moving averages, especially supported by 55-week moving average.

One possibility is a continuation downward, but the down slide may be with little or no momentum. There are multiple moving averages of 89 and 144-week to damp the momentum of the fall.

The support level I see for this move is 31571 to 32,388. the possibility of reversing up-ward so far is high.

The other possibility is the present support able to push Dow Jones higher. We should then see further up-thrust to 35,711 to 37,651. 

Fig 2. Hang Seng weekly chart

Mty last up-date on Hang Seng indicated a continuation up-thrust. Well, it went up as predicted, breifly congested till the 8-week moving average caught up, only to climb further. Moreover, it crosses the 55-week moving average resistance and stayed above.

At present it is only resisted by the 38.2% retracement resistance. My feel is that it may enter another congestion hovering between 55-week moving average and the 38.2% retracement line. However, I still think that it is going to head further up eventually, it has yet to reach its 100% projection resistance at 21,978.

On a side note, the gradient of its climb is steep, I believe that the up-trend may continue for some time. Having said that, it will need a counter wave correction before the last surge.